December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Learned a few neat things here so far this winter:

1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 

2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW.

It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Learned a few neat things here so far this winter:

1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 

2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW.

It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd.

Pretty much sums up this place.

[Omegaraptor]

59 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Now I need you guys to hurry up and tell me that your going to be getting the good's shortly. If your getting hammered that almost always means the Jet is to the south and over my house. Other than a really good lake effect snow band in early Nov this winter has been super lame.  

Could also have another blast like Feb 89 or Dec 90 that sends the Arctic air down into CA. Would be nice to see some -30s at Boca Reservoir and -20s across NE CA and NW NV.

[Timmy]

Lots of cold air nearby

[AbbyJr]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS splits the vortex D10-11 now. Timing moved way up.

Does a vortex split favour arctic air into the PNW more so than a displacement?

My understanding is that a displacement is a wave-1 and a split is a wave-2.

Correct me if I'm wrong?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27/37 for the day. Now 36°F, so probably have reached the high for the day.

Coldest max (and min) temps yet of the season, second sub-40°F day in a row. Ground is still white.

[FroYoBro]

People are cancelling winter and they don’t even remember that we are getting crazy model runs on Christmas. 

[AbbyJr]

56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Learned a few neat things here so far this winter:

1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 

2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW.

It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd.

Well said. Couldn't have said better myself. I feel like us weather enthusiasts are just like the emotional sports fans who declare a loss when their team is down 1-0 in the first period. 

[Meatyorologist]

SPV dipole emerges just as favorable tropical forcings begin to return. 18z was the warmest yet for the SSW event, IIRC.

[AbbyJr]

Hey does anyone know if there was a SSW event in the 1999-00 bust?

[AbbyJr]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

SPV dipole emerges just as favorable tropical forcings begin to return. 18z was the warmest yet for the SSW event, IIRC.

Okay can somebody help explain tropical forcing and which types are favourable for the PNW seeing arctic air? Is it connected with the MJO? Does anyone have resources that I can read through and learn about it? Thanks. 

[Meatyorologist]

Hopefully this calms the Pacific a bit...

[Winterdog]

The Drunkle is as sober as a judge tonight.  Only one member on the ensembles goes below -5 850's and that is near the end and is only down to -7.  Not complaining though.  I've got snow on the ground and 35F.

[Tenochtitlan]

The snow is hanging on pretty well here in the shade. High of 38 so far at the airport and it's already down to 35 there. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Learned a few neat things here so far this winter:

1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 

2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW.

It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd.

It's funny, 10 years ago people were complaining about front-loaded winters. Now it's back-loaded winters.

Hopefully we're starting a mid-loaded stretch...

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

18z GFS splits the vortex D10-11 now. Timing moved way up.

Maps?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, tenochtitlan said:

The snow is hanging on pretty well here in the shade. High of 38 so far at the airport and it's already down to 35 there. 

Already down to 33°F here. This little snow event has definitely overperformed with respect to my expectations. I was expecting the snow to be long gone by now.

Hopefully just a warning shot for something more significant and regionally widespread in January!

[Deweydog]

21 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Okay can somebody help explain tropical forcing and which types are favourable for the PNW seeing arctic air? Is it connected with the MJO? Does anyone have resources that I can read through and learn about it? Thanks. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden–Julian_oscillation

[AbbyJr]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden–Julian_oscillation

Thanks so much. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32°F. The re-re-refreeze begins.

[Dave]

Depressing day. Only a 39/34 spread. Low clouds all day long. Zero sunshine.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, dolt said:

Depressing day. Only a 39/34 spread. Low clouds all day long. Zero sunshine.

Is this your sub-40°F high for the season, or did Eugene reach that milestone already?

[Tyler Mode]

Only one patch of fog remained most of the day in Clark County...my house was pretty much right under it.  Finally cleared around 2 PM.  High of 39.5.

[MossMan]

Had a high of 38. Currently 33. Lost a little more snow but I am now locked in for a least a white Christmas Eve! 

[Dave]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is this your sub-40°F high for the season, or did Eugene reach that milestone already?

I think we might have had one in November. Eugene is the inversion capitol of the western PNW. We typically get several due to this, but they've been a bit rarer lately. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Back down to 31 after a high of 36.  A little bit of melt but the ground is still mostly white.  So much for the snow being gone by the time my son gets home LOL!  Was just watching the weather on Q13 and they were showing snow for the north interior/up by the border Saturday morning, even made specific mention of it.  White boxing day?  Doesn't have the same ring as "white Christmas"  but I won't complain if it pans out.

[MossMan]

One thing that I have noticed in our “declining chilly winters” is that we seem to be having (well my area anyway) more white week of Christmas or actual Christmas Eve/Day. I might be missing some from my early years (late 70’s-early 80’s) but I can only recall 1990, 1996, 1998...But then it started becoming more frequent the last several years...2008, 2013, 15, 16, 17, 20! Though of course my favorites are 1990 and 2008 with heavy snow falling at daybreak on Christmas morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, dolt said:

Depressing day. Only a 39/34 spread. Low clouds all day long. Zero sunshine.

Made it to 40F on the Springfield stations so still awaiting our first sub-40F high of the meteorological winter on the east side of town. Airport tends to be colder than here.

40/34 on the day for our first negative temp departure since Dec 5. Absolutely bush league.

Edit: was looking at the past whole 24 hours not just today...goddammit!! I can't figure this shitt out it's frustrating AF!

We ended up at just 37F here so a 37/34 day. First sub-40F high of our winter. Much nicer than the past couple weeks.

[paulb/eugene]

59 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Only one patch of fog remained most of the day in Clark County...my house was pretty much right under it.  Finally cleared around 2 PM.  High of 39.5.

Lucky you.  Eugene socked in

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One thing that I have noticed in our “declining chilly winters” is that we seem to be having (well my area anyway) more white week of Christmas or actual Christmas Eve/Day. I might be missing some from my early years (late 70’s-early 80’s) but I can only recall 1990, 1996, 1998...But then it started becoming more frequent the last several years...2008, 2013, 15, 16, 17, 20! Though of course my favorites are 1990 and 2008 with heavy snow falling at daybreak on Christmas morning. 

Our winters have split in two, just like the polar vortex.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So much for the snow being gone by the time my son gets home LOL!

Yeah, that prediction of mine didn’t pan out. Yesterday, Bellingham’s high temperature was actually colder than Spokane’s! Just goes to show what increased albedo from snow cover can do. This little snow event has definitely overperformed compared to what I was expecting.

[MossMan]

Already down to 30 degrees...Going to be a chilly night! 

[snow_wizard]

FINALLY!  The EPS shows the PNA going minus in early January with a deeply tanked NAO.  The control has both very tanked.  Maybe this is the beginning of something.

Meanwhile....I'm enjoying the chilly weather.  42 / 30 yesterday and 43 / 28 today after the little bit of snow the other day.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FINALLY!  The EPS shows the PNA going minus in early January with a deeply tanked NAO.  The control has both very tanked.  Maybe this is the beginning of something.

Meanwhile....I'm enjoying the chilly weather.  42 / 30 yesterday and 43 / 28 today after the little bit of snow the other day.

Everyone is saying late January...My gut is telling me that I will need to have a full tank of fuel in my mower plow by the second week of January at the latest...Possibly sooner. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Everyone is saying late January...My gut is telling me that I will need to have a full tank of fuel in my mower plow by the second week of January at the latest...Possibly sooner. 

It certainly could be sooner.  The -NAO all of the models are showing in early Jan is insane.  Coupled with a -PNA that rapidly forces a deep trough over the NW.

[BLI snowman]

Again, worth noting that late January hasn't delivered anything at all since 2009.

And no significant arctic air since 1996.

Pretty noteworthy given that it's historically been pretty close to the heart of our winter action.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Again, worth noting that late January hasn't delivered anything at all since 2009.

And no significant arctic air since 1996.

Pretty noteworthy given that it's historically been pretty close to the heart of our winter action.

I think it would be a huge deal if it can deliver this winter.  Might signal some kind of a realignment.  As you say that period used to deliver some really incredible stuff in the not too distant past.

[weatherwonder]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Everyone is saying late January...My gut is telling me that I will need to have a full tank of fuel in my mower plow by the second week of January at the latest...Possibly sooner. 

I agree second week of January looks very possible!

Things are starting to ramp up quickly in the upper atmosphere towards a much colder / snowier pattern sooner than later

 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, weatherwonder said:

I agree second week of January looks very possible!

Things are starting to ramp up quickly in the upper atmosphere towards a much colder / snowier pattern sooner than later

 

 

Do you have any specifics beyond what has been discussed?

[Blizzard777]

42/28 currently 36 and still a bit of white out.....nice