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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice's twitter interesting today.

 

image.png.b444481012b7a0d01c8d7a0af5868bf0.png

Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only)
image.png.bcaa732f6c1baf0054b023f2e5cec7c4.png
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Cold January for much of country
 
 
r1lDOeOr_x96.jpg
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especially western-central Canada

So doing the math, it looks like it peaks on Sunday Jan 3rd, morning our time.  Then add two weeks to get the cold pattern, so the potential time is the 3rd week of January.  Might start a few days earlier, the map he showed had the cold air two weeks after the peak SSW, but it may have start to get cold a bit sooner.  Right about MLK day weekend.

IF everything happens that way.  

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First snow of the year! Melting quick but at least a little left. Was down south picking up a new family member. 

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am. Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

Major shift on the 12z EPS to lower heights over the West with rising heights in the SE compared to the 00z last night. Looking like a really fun mid month on through the Holidays. Perfect timing IMO!

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So doing the math, it looks like it peaks on Sunday Jan 3rd, morning our time.  Then add two weeks to get the cold pattern, so the potential time is the 3rd week of January.  Might start a few days earlier, the map he showed was two weeks later, but it may have started to get cold a bit sooner.  Right about MLK day weekend.

IF everything happens that way.  

Potential!

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So doing the math, it looks like it peaks on Sunday Jan 3rd, morning our time.  Then add two weeks to get the cold pattern, so the potential time is the 3rd week of January.  Might start a few days earlier, the map he showed was two weeks later, but it may have started to get cold a bit sooner.  Right about MLK day weekend.

IF everything happens that way.  

Did you say MLK? 😱😱😱

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42 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Fogged in here in Battle Ground.  Drove to Troutdale to take pictures of sunrise.  Looks like the last nice one this year...

134067675_1538268369681670_8012210957819789439_o.jpg

Thanks for sharing that! Nice one.

I'm getting tired of my cloudless sunrises in K-Falls. I haven't taken a nice sunrise pic in ages.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Good news. Looks like PDX got to 27 last night. No longer breaking the record for warmest annual minimum in the airport era.

Unfortunately clouds and fog at HIO prevented what could have been some epic radiational cooling.

Outstanding. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am.

Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

1C9477B8-D5BF-4202-8A85-685F2E73FD75.thumb.jpeg.ee76fcba88fa0ab245381f9fb30d3b7e.jpeg

72776FE7-66D5-4CE3-A078-F97D0CB02204.thumb.jpeg.250379aadf30a46bbd6775d410f780d9.jpeg

7DAA9A71-1548-4E93-B5C5-03C1555B9364.thumb.jpeg.0614b0aff39aef1cc6c703690fc8aa95.jpeg

8FF9B4AF-958B-4E3B-8969-2C2CB1F2D531.thumb.jpeg.601b5de97c6560cc2a69c6c03aaa1f6a.jpeg

Imagine prospecting for gold up there in January 1862. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am.

Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

1C9477B8-D5BF-4202-8A85-685F2E73FD75.thumb.jpeg.ee76fcba88fa0ab245381f9fb30d3b7e.jpeg

72776FE7-66D5-4CE3-A078-F97D0CB02204.thumb.jpeg.250379aadf30a46bbd6775d410f780d9.jpeg

7DAA9A71-1548-4E93-B5C5-03C1555B9364.thumb.jpeg.0614b0aff39aef1cc6c703690fc8aa95.jpeg

8FF9B4AF-958B-4E3B-8969-2C2CB1F2D531.thumb.jpeg.601b5de97c6560cc2a69c6c03aaa1f6a.jpeg

I bet they get some killer supercells in the summer ;)

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Imagine prospecting for gold up there in January 1862. 

Gold was first struck here on July 4, 1862, after which the area underwent a mining boom/the town was formed. So most early residents just missed it.

Although it’s likely there were a few grizzled prospectors up here the preceding winter.  I’m sure it was brutal. 🥶 

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19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am.

Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

1C9477B8-D5BF-4202-8A85-685F2E73FD75.thumb.jpeg.ee76fcba88fa0ab245381f9fb30d3b7e.jpeg

72776FE7-66D5-4CE3-A078-F97D0CB02204.thumb.jpeg.250379aadf30a46bbd6775d410f780d9.jpeg

7DAA9A71-1548-4E93-B5C5-03C1555B9364.thumb.jpeg.0614b0aff39aef1cc6c703690fc8aa95.jpeg

8FF9B4AF-958B-4E3B-8969-2C2CB1F2D531.thumb.jpeg.601b5de97c6560cc2a69c6c03aaa1f6a.jpeg

Stayed at the freemont powerhouse just up from there toward olive lake.  That was a year and a half ago.  Good trout and Kokanee fishing and a few mushrooms too.

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6 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Stayed at the freemont powerhouse just up from there toward olive lake.  That was a year and a half ago.  Good trout and Kokanee fishing and a few mushrooms too.

Nice. We are planning to snowshoe in the Fremont Powerhouse area today.

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nice. We are planning to snowshoe in the Fremont Powerhouse area today.

You can rent those houses for like 80$ a night. Although I think there is no water in the winter time. There is a wood pipe that goes from there to olive Lake (7miles) it’s probably mostly buried in snow right now. But pretty cool They used it to create power at the powerhouse and then it ran all the way down to Sumpter.

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4 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice's twitter interesting today.

 

image.png.b444481012b7a0d01c8d7a0af5868bf0.png

Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only)
image.png.bcaa732f6c1baf0054b023f2e5cec7c4.png
Replying to
Cold January for much of country
 
 
r1lDOeOr_x96.jpg
Replying to
especially western-central Canada

1969!!! C'MON!!! 🥶☃️

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Don’t want to jinx it, but man, I’m growing increasingly bullish on the possibility of some legit winter weather for 2nd half of January once MJO propagates out of the IO. That’s the final piece of the puzzle after SSW.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Don’t want to jinx it, but man, I’m growing increasingly bullish on the possibility of some legit winter weather for 2nd half of January once MJO propagates out of the IO. That’s the final piece of the puzzle after SSW.

What happened to the younger/bolder Phil that would Guarantee greatness?? 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Don’t want to jinx it, but man, I’m growing increasingly bullish on the possibility of some legit winter weather for 2nd half of January once MJO propagates out of the IO. That’s the final piece of the puzzle after SSW.

Thinking about Ventrice's tweets about SSW events in Siberia, and usually 2 weeks after maturity the cold air is in Western North America.  Thinking it explains in part Feb. 2019 even though it was a nino.

So I wonder how often in the past there has been a Nina, Westerly QBO, and a SSW event over Siberia, and how often the PNW got cold after that, vs. how often it did not get cold after that.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thinking about Ventrice's tweets about SSW events in Siberia, and usually 2 weeks after maturity the cold air is in Western North America.  Thinking it explains in part Feb. 2019 even though it was a nino.

So I wonder how often in the past there has been a Nina, Westerly QBO, and a SSW event over Siberia, and how often the PNW got cold after that, vs. how often it did not get cold after that.

That would be a great to know! 

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Also looks more likely this is the first legit -NAO DJF in almost a decade.

Depending how this ultimately plays out, we could also be looking at a more sustained shift to -PMM/-PDO and canonical -PNA (as a low pass feature below seasonal scale).

Recall the flip to +PMM/+PDO in the 2012-14 period was concurrent with flip to +NAO era.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also looks more likely this is the first legit -NAO DJF in almost a decade.

Depending how this ultimately plays out, we could also be looking at a more sustained shift to -PMM/-PDO and canonical -PNA (as a low pass feature below seasonal scale).

Recall the flip to +PMM/+PDO in the 2012-14 period was concurrent with flip to +NAO era.

 

 

There may be like 3 people here that understand any of that.

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also looks more likely this is the first legit -NAO DJF in almost a decade.

Depending how this ultimately plays out, we could also be looking at a more sustained shift to -PMM/-PDO and canonical -PNA (as a low pass feature below seasonal scale).

Recall the flip to +PMM/+PDO in the 2012-14 period was concurrent with flip to +NAO era.

 

 

So are you saying we may be entering a period where the PNW may once again be more prone to arctic outbreaks in the winter?

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It's druncle time!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Up to 39F. Kiddos outside with the jackets on, enjoying the trampoline.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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It just came to my attention PDX has not had a sub40 max in 2020. Could happen today, if not... wow.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It just came to my attention PDX has not had a sub40 max in 2020. Could happen today, if not... wow.

Brutal. Sucks to have such a long stretch of monotony when it comes to bush league max temps in the winter.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thinking about Ventrice's tweets about SSW events in Siberia, and usually 2 weeks after maturity the cold air is in Western North America.  Thinking it explains in part Feb. 2019 even though it was a nino.

So I wonder how often in the past there has been a Nina, Westerly QBO, and a SSW event over Siberia, and how often the PNW got cold after that, vs. how often it did not get cold after that.

 

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