December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2006?

YIKES. 

[Jesse]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any thoughts on the 00z? I thought it was a major step in the right direction. 

I for one liked it Andrew.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

YIKES. 

Unlikely given that the pattern change should arrive a little quicker this time around.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Throw out the run. It doesn’t shows 80 degree sunshine

[Deweydog]

Frosty out!

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, dolt said:

Looks ideal for feet of Cascade snow.

I want feet of 550’ snow! 

[MossMan]

Temp stuck at 30. 

[TT-SEA]

41 here... east wind blowing.   Snow does not budge though with dry air.

[MossMan]

Temp spike to 31.6! 

[luminen]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

41 here... east wind blowing.   Snow does not budge though with dry air.

30F here....no wind blowing. Bare ground does not budge though with moist air.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, luminen said:

30F here....no wind blowing. Bare ground does not budge though with moist air.

I remember days on end of 45-degree temps and east wind in March 2019 that did almost nothing to our snow pack.  It took temps in the 70s to finally get rid of most of it... and even then it was slower than I expected.   Nothing like a roaring south wind and rain to eat snow.

[AbbyJr]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It certainly could be sooner.  The -NAO all of the models are showing in early Jan is insane.  Coupled with a -PNA that rapidly forces a deep trough over the NW.

The famous December 1968 arctic blast featured a -PNA/-NAO combo. With a tanked NAO and an incoming major SSW in a -ENSO/+QBO state, its hard to understand why winter cancel is being mentioned on this forum.

Not to mention, its not even January yet. Way to soon and honestly just silliness to cancel winter at this point.

 

[luminen]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember days on end of 45-degree temps and east wind in March 2019 that did almost nothing to our snow pack.  It took temps in the 70s to finally get rid of most of it... and even then it was slower than I expected.   Nothing like a roaring south wind and rain to eat snow.

March 2019 held onto the snow really well here as well, even into the last week of the month after the warm switch was flipped.

The beginning of that month was essentially a full-on winter month by our standards.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 and very frosty. Looks like snow, the kind of snow that wouldn't melt even if temps were in the low 80s. 

[Deweydog]

I wouldn’t mind having a little snow to melt.  

[Deweydog]

Question... Have we as a forum actually ever managed to cancel a winter?

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, luminen said:

March 2019 held onto the snow really well here as well, even into the last week of the month after the warm switch was flipped.

The beginning of that month was essentially a full-on winter month by our standards.

Looked back at my pics of March 2019...Almost forgot just how great the start of the month was, then 77 degrees by later March but I still had the driveway snow pile! 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

31 and very frosty. Looks like snow, the kind of snow that wouldn't melt even if temps were in the low 80s. 

Jared can tell you all about the snow-preserving power of dry air!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looked back at my pics of March 2019...Almost forgot just how great the start of the month was, then 77 degrees by later March but I still had the driveway snow pile! 

She’s ruining it!!!

I hope you set her straight...

[SouthHillFrosty]

28 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

The famous December 1968 arctic blast featured a -PNA/-NAO combo. With a tanked NAO and an incoming major SSW in a -ENSO/+QBO state, its hard to understand why winter cancel is being mentioned on this forum.

Not to mention, its not even January yet. Way to soon and honestly just silliness to cancel winter at this point.

 

Wow forget 1950, 1968/1969 had the record amount of snowfall for Seattle I believe!

[SouthHillFrosty]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Question... Have we as a forum actually ever managed to cancel a winter?

We should have a weekly zoom meeting with the nws to discuss cancelling winter

[Phil]

Putin’s heating bill about to soar.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Putin’s heating bill about to soar.

Does this have any implications for us?

[Phil]

That’s a massive, gargantuan SSW on the 00z Euro.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Does this have any implications for us?

Yes. Siberian High descent —> +EAMT —> jet extension. Interesting combo with SSW/-NAO trying to suppress the storm track to the south.

Jet retracts mid-Jan which is when Aleutian/GOA ridge returns..gets interesting in a hurry, with PV likely destroyed and favorable tropical forcing thru IPWP.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

December 23rd, 2020 and we are talking about 1928-29.  This is beyond bad.

We always talk about this kind of stuff in the winter.

[luminen]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes. Siberian High descent —> +EAMT —> jet extension. Interesting combo with SSW/-NAO trying to suppress the storm track to the south.

Jet retracts mid-Jan which is when Aleutian/GOA ridge returns..gets interesting in a hurry, with PV likely destroyed and favorable tropical forcing thru IPWP.

In other words, Toronto will get an extreme Arctic blast.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, luminen said:

In other words, Toronto will get an extreme Arctic blast.

YYZ!!!

Hard to believe it’s almost been a year since we lost Neil Peart.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s a massive, gargantuan SSW on the 00z Euro.

Holy crap!  You ain't kidding.  it displaces almost all of the negative 10mb temp anomalies into the mid latitudes.  That should  cause something to change.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, luminen said:

In other words, Toronto will get an extreme Arctic blast.

Why do you say that?

[luminen]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do you say that?

Well we probably will too (not saying we won't).

The east will definitely get in on the action no matter what since it is so easy to get cold air that way. It's just how it is on this continent.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy crap!  You ain't kidding.  it displaces almost all of the negative 10mb temp anomalies into the mid latitudes.  That should  cause something to change.

If that verifies, then yeah it’s gonna get cold next month. 

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

She’s ruining it!!!

I hope you set her straight...

Hell yeah...I made her wash the winter of 2018/19 off of my truck! 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Phil will share snow pictures and assure us that it is both worse than we realize and that better days days are ahead with the next ice age just around the corner.

Thankfully we'll finally get the ridge in the right position for some fun graupel showers in April.

Pssh, most of y’all have already had more snow than me, judging by the pics posted here a few days ago.

[Omegaraptor]

Nothing to see here, just your typical -15.5mb PDX-EUG...

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, iFred said:

On the surface, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation means that both the UK and New England are enjoying snow while Greenland and the West Coast are enjoying positive anomalies. Yeah yeah, I get it, there are cases we get snow like that one time a couple decades ago, but unless there is a -PNA or a SE ridge, on the surface a SSW just means we get a chance to reset things up north.

-NAO is not a warm west pattern at all. It actually leans cool/stormy out there on balance w/ a quasi-suppressed storm track..all else being equal. Maybe not Arctic by itself, but it often serves as a loading pattern for -PNA, subsequently.

On the other hand, 2014/15 was the most +NAO winter in recorded history. How did that one turn out?

[Cloud]

It hasn’t been mentioned on here but there is a second eruption of Mt. Etna in Italy.

Do we think there are any implications to our weather going forward into Jan? 

[Jesse]

Down to 32 here.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Down to 32 here.

I’m jumping all over from 30 to 34 back to 30 to currently 33. 

[Deweydog]

We’ve lost The Fred.