December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Plenty of mountain snow.

Are you really going to try to tell us your stepson didn’t know what a white Christmas is. Has he ever seen ANY Christmas movie?

[AbbyJr]

45 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Actually it starts in about four days, but the question is whether it will evolve into a complete destruction or just some deep bruising.

Models show complete destruction. No more polar vortex. Welcome arctic air. C'MON!!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pineapples on this run. 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Plenty of mountain snow.

Would you be so kind to post the Washington map? 

[Timmy Supercell]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Plenty of mountain snow.

20" over 2 weeks is pretty good for me. That's also assuming 10:1 SWE. My last snow was 20:1.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

They will love the trampoline!  My grandson doesn’t care if it cold and wet out.  He still goes out and jumps away barefoot.  

Oh they would all love it too. It's great until one of them bumps into the other and an ACL gets torn slipping lol.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I told myself that in the Christmas spirit I wouldn’t do any downvotes today, so consider the weenie react your warning

January 2008 wasn’t that bad.  The details didn’t go our way but I’d take my chances with it again.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Snow starting here.  Expecting around 3 or 4 inches.  NWS Spokane just mentioned the polar jet will be aimed at us next week, and it will finally begin to look like winter for the Inland Northwest.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Snow starting here.  Expecting around 3 or 4 inches.  NWS Spokane just mentioned the polar jet will be aimed at us next week, and it will finally begin to look like winter for the Inland Northwest.

Spokane sees more snow in a season than my place, have they been relatively quiet lately?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Are you really going to try to tell us your stepson didn’t know what a white Christmas is. Has he ever seen ANY Christmas movie?

He's not my stepson. He's my 5-year old biological son.

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lump of coal from Mark for Jesse s stocking. 

That’ll change.

[snow_wizard]

I have to admit I'm beginning to get a bit discouraged by the models continuing to show the PNA remaining slightly positive well into January now.  On the other hand we have the big SSW and  probable MJO wave coming up to shuffle the deck.  Pretty hard to imagine all of the Eastern mets ending up wrong when they say the NW will have a cold winter.

[The Swamp]

Have we ever had a SSW start in September or October so we could get some good use out of it in November or December?

The people here keep saying a SSW is GOING to happen.  It seems like that snowstorm at day 15 that used to show up every day every winter but never happened.

If the weather gods are listening, I'd like a SSW in October next year so we can actually have some snow in January or February and not a SSW in January so we end up with a rain/snow mix in April.

Thank you.

[Jesse]

Made old fashioned eggnog as our founding fathers intended today. This is a great recipe and a great YouTube channel.

https://youtu.be/7bsHOxQtBW4

On a weather note, I bet more PNW Christmases were SNOWY in the late 1700s. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

42/31 currently 42*

Merry Christmas all   ️

 

The east wind completely ruined my temps for today.  It was down to 33 last night before it began.  As it stands now I have a 48 - 42 (current temp) spread for today, but the temp is dropping due to evaporative cooling.

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January 2008 wasn’t that bad.  The details didn’t go our way but I’d take my chances with it again.

That airmass around the 21st was pretty cold, -10c or so at 850mb. The block placement was almost ideal, there just wasn't a lot of cold air to tap into (until mid April).

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Have we ever had a SSW start in September or October so we could get some good use out of it in November or December?

The people here keep saying a SSW is GOING to happen.  It seems like that snowstorm at day 15 that used to show up every day every winter but never happened.

If the weather gods are listening, I'd like a SSW in October next year so we can actually have some snow in January or February and not a SSW in January so we end up with a rain/snow mix in April.

Thank you.

The SSW is happening.  The ECMWF has it locked now with the big warmup beginning in a few days.  Usually the lag time for effects is a couple of weeks.  Last winter had one right about Jan 1 and later in the month is when the cold and snow happened especially north of Seattle.

[Blizzard777]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh they would all love it too. It's great until one of them bumps into the other and an ACL gets torn slipping lol.

One of us always leaves the trampoline hurt ....usually him but he loves to bounce when I’m in there with him.  He able to get higher bounce when my weight comes down on the trampoline.  He goes flying out of control with arms and legs flailing.  If he survives he says do it again!!!!  It’s a kick and good exercise  

rain and 41*

I did start the day with a bit of snow still left but now it’s long gone!  

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January 2008 wasn’t that bad.  The details didn’t go our way but I’d take my chances with it again.

I don’t remember much about January 2008, I would have to pull out my old digital camera to see what pics I have, but I did have several watches/advisories/warnings...

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Made old fashioned eggnog as our founding fathers intended today. This is a great recipe and a great YouTube channel.

https://youtu.be/7bsHOxQtBW4

On a weather note, I bet more PNW Christmases were SNOWY in the late 1700s. 

Anecdotal evidence suggests the 1600s and 1800s were colder than the 1700s, but who knows.  I hope this wasn't a slight of our Founding Fathers.  We don't need that here.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Anecdotal evidence suggests the 1600s and 1800s were colder than the 1700s, but who knows.  I hope this wasn't a slight of our Founding Fathers.  We don't need that here.

It’s George Washingtons (alleged) eggnog recipe. It’s fun, and should be tummy ache proof for liberal AND conservative snowflakes.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That airmass around the 21st was pretty cold, -10c or so at 850mb. The block placement was almost ideal, there just wasn't a lot of cold air to tap into (until mid April).

-10 is pretty solid.  Easily good enough for snow.  Jan 2008 was really painful in that we could never really get the right details for a good snow.  Had lots of days with sloppy small accumulations though.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Anecdotal evidence suggests the 1600s and 1800s were colder than the 1700s, but who knows.  I hope this wasn't a slight of our Founding Fathers.  We don't need that here.

Good Lord Jim.   

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s George Washingtons (alleged) eggnog recipe. It’s fun, and should be tummy ache proof for liberal AND conservative snowflakes.

Fair enough.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord Jim.   

I'm just really touchy about politics right now.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t remember much about January 2008, I would have to pull out my old digital camera to see what pics I have, but I did have several watches/advisories/warnings...

2007-08 has the scarlet letter due to all the dodged bullets but that winter wasn’t too bad on the macro level.  Too much onshore flow overall but still decent windows of favorable blocking in early December and later January.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to admit I'm beginning to get a bit discouraged by the models continuing to show the PNA remaining slightly positive well into January now.  On the other hand we have the big SSW and  probable MJO wave coming up to shuffle the deck.  Pretty hard to imagine all of the Eastern mets ending up wrong when they say the NW will have a cold winter.

1) The +PNA/Aleutian low aids WAFz thru NPAC, which drives the SSW. In the near term, I don’t think it’s a bad thing.

2) First 10 days of January are going to lean warm and/or quasi-zonal, IMO. I’m more interested in what happens during the second half of January, when tropical forcing returns to IPWP. That’s a more favorable midwinter tropical forcing for PNW region. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The SSW is happening.  The ECMWF has it locked now with the big warmup beginning in a few days.  Usually the lag time for effects is a couple of weeks.  Last winter had one right about Jan 1 and later in the month is when the cold and snow happened especially north of Seattle.

The 2019 SSW was a bit later. Wind reversal occurred during the 2nd/3rd week of January.

[Deweydog]

Feels like the Jim might be splitting and weakening too. Can’t hurt as we edge toward late winter...

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2007-08 has the scarlet letter due to all the dodged bullets but that winter wasn’t too bad on the macro level.  Too much onshore flow overall but still decent windows of favorable blocking in early December and later January.

Gotcha! Yeah I do remember lots of chunky rain in December 2007! 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Feels like the Jim might be splitting and weakening too. Can’t hurt as we edge toward late winter...

Good point.  A lot of times when I get discouraged is when good things start to happen.

[MossMan]

[snow_wizard]

The good news about the coming pattern is there are many times we have a situation where we are only a low tracking to our south away from snow.  Many runs show that happening once during the run.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The real bummer is the EPS was showing the PNA starting to go minus around New Years and now that has changed.  Frustrating to see it keep getting delayed.

[AbbyJr]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to admit I'm beginning to get a bit discouraged by the models continuing to show the PNA remaining slightly positive well into January now.  On the other hand we have the big SSW and  probable MJO wave coming up to shuffle the deck.  Pretty hard to imagine all of the Eastern mets ending up wrong when they say the NW will have a cold winter.

Are all the Eastern meteorologists suggesting the PNW will have a cold winter?

I know Joe Bastardi is... not sure of any others.

That major SSW will likely have major effects on the long range pattern that the models have not picked up on. I highly doubt the models will be able to predict the results of the SSW prior to the event taking place. Therefore, the long range models are likely useless right now, assuming the SSW verifies, which it most likely will based on all relevant data available.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Are all the Eastern meteorologists suggesting the PNW will have a cold winter?

Quite a number that I've seen.  The CPC and the mets at Weatherbell just as a couple of examples.

[AbbyJr]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Quite a number that I've seen.  The CPC and the mets at Weatherbell just as a couple of examples.

When do you expect we will start seeing the effects of the SSW on the models? When it starts or when it completes?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to admit I'm beginning to get a bit discouraged by the models continuing to show the PNA remaining slightly positive well into January now.  On the other hand we have the big SSW and  probable MJO wave coming up to shuffle the deck.  Pretty hard to imagine all of the Eastern mets ending up wrong when they say the NW will have a cold winter.

So the 2019 arctic event for the PNW arrived on Feb. 3rd, Super Bowl Sunday.  How soon in advance did the models begin to pick up on it?  If there is going to be a mid January blast, I would think we won't see any signal for at least a week.  And guessing the timing of the SSW, if it does happen and IF it does send arctic air our way, wouldn't be until mid January anyway 

[AbbyJr]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2019 SSW was a bit later. Wind reversal occurred during the 2nd/3rd week of January.

Was there a SSW event in January 2020? I don't recall there was but there were other factors that led to the arctic blast.

[OysterPrintout]

Merry Christmas to everyone EXCEPT any of the founding fathers who didn't like snow!