December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TheNewCulverJosh 120]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

So the current 16 day model is 100% correct but any model that is picking up on anything favorable is complete trash...Got it! 

The only thing 100% correct is when it is happening real time.  Where did you get that I think the current 16 day model is any good from that post?

[MossMan 9330]

3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The only thing 100% correct is when it is happening real time.  Where did you get that I think the current 16 day model is any good from that post?

I’m just trying to get everyone riled up like Andrew and Justin! It’s a NYE tradition! 

[TheNewCulverJosh 120]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m just trying to get everyone riled up like Andrew and Justin! It’s a NYE tradition! 

Not gonna happen.  Life is good, weather is just a hobby.

[Kayla 3515]

8 minutes ago, Acer said:

That’s 40 days away!  Go find a Woolly Worm and the latest copy of the Farmers Almanac and you will have better odds at that range.

If we had that thought process with science we’d still be in the stone ages. We can’t know without trying.

 If you can’t live with being disappointed when the models don’t end up being completely accurate 100% of the time then you should probably find a new hobby.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2749]

2 minutes ago, Acer said:

That’s 40 days away!  Go find a Woolly Worm and the latest copy of the Farmers Almanac and you will have better odds at that range.

Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? 

There is more to it than that.  The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now.  Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America.  May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood.   And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO.  

Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model

You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday.   I learned a lot. 

And you should all remember February 2019.  Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. 

[OysterPrintout 748]

Property manager here put up an inclement weather notice on everybody's doors. Phil must have some sort of grassroots newsletter going around.

[Acer 660]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

If we had that thought process with science we’d still be in the stone ages. We can’t know without trying.

 If you can’t live with being disappointed when the models don’t end up being completely accurate 100% of the time then you should probably find a new hobby.

I can live with being disappointed with the models, I've been doing it for as long as the models have been around.  I understand what you are saying but in the context of looking for something encouraging, any model at 40 days out is just a colorful map.

[Front Ranger 7378]

16 minutes ago, Kayla said:

If we had that thought process with science we’d still be in the stone ages. We can’t know without trying.

 If you can’t live with being disappointed when the models don’t end up being completely accurate 100% of the time then you should probably find a new hobby.

Agreed, but also ok to acknowledge that our long range models have nothing close to even 90% accuracy.

Too much system chaos.

[snow_wizard 10190]

The ECMWF weeklies still show we will reach the promised land.  It shows the pattern flipping to much more favorable around the 20th and then a strong signal for major cold in early February.  I will say we are far from due for a major cold February again, but they do tend to come in bunches.  The chances still look good for it to begin this month though.

[snow_wizard 10190]

If this plays out as expected we will continue to be left with the question why can December and February deliver so nicely, but January can't.  That having been said the final third of January is still very much in play.

[snow_wizard 10190]

33 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? 

There is more to it than that.  The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now.  Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America.  May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood.   And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO.  

Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model

You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday.   I learned a lot. 

And you should all remember February 2019.  Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. 

Great post.  At this point models are just going to give a possible indication when (not if) the better pattern will kick in.  There is no guarantee we will get blasted, but I think at least a decent pattern is very likely while we are still within the good part of the winter.

[snow_wizard 10190]

FWIW the weeklies kick the PNA negative on the same day as the Monday run.  It finally stopped putting it off.

[Front Ranger 7378]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If this plays out as expected we will continue to be left with the question why can December and February deliver so nicely, but January can't.  That having been said the final third of January is still very much in play.

I'd say the final half is in play. We're two weeks away from half way through the month.

[Christensen87 156]

So sad the epic windstorm next week disappeared 

[AbbyJr 438]

54 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? 

There is more to it than that.  The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now.  Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America.  May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood.   And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO.  

Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model

You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday.   I learned a lot. 

And you should all remember February 2019.  Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. 

Agreed. I have not watched the whole video yet (I'm at 51:27) but its an excellent video. Very educational and has given me more confidence in my prediction for an arctic outbreak in the PNW around mid or late January.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13158]

6 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

So sad the epic windstorm next week disappeared 

Pretty much everything interesting for next week has been jettisoned. But don't worry, the wishcasting crew is out in force. It's like the Trump vs. Never Trump people. Two alternate realities!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13158]

Let's put it this way. There is now a clear path for SLE to record their 4th straight January with an average max of 50+.

[ShawniganLake 5260]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? 

There is more to it than that.  The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now.  Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America.  May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood.   And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO.  

Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model

You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday.   I learned a lot. 

And you should all remember February 2019.  Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. 

I have not had a chance to watch the video. But if an SSW is capable of overwhelming ENSO climatology the way Feb 2019 did, then are the QBO and Nina all that important (assuming the PV gets taken out)?

[Cloud 1042]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? 

There is more to it than that.  The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now.  Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America.  May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood.   And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO.  

Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model

You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday.   I learned a lot. 

And you should all remember February 2019.  Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. 

The Ventrice video is highly recommended!

Disclaimer: This is an effort to pull some of you away from the cliff’s edge. 

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty 858]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The Ventrice video is highly recommended!

Disclaimer: This is an effort to pull some of you away from the cliff’s edge. 

 

 

Alright I'll watch it. Seems pretty interesting #winterisover

[snow_wizard 10190]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty much everything interesting for next week has been jettisoned. But don't worry, the wishcasting crew is out in force. It's like the Trump vs. Never Trump people. Two alternate realities!

You seem to bee in a pretty bad place right now.  I will admit I am kind of ragged myself though.

[Cloud 1042]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Alright I'll watch it. Seems pretty interesting #winterisover

I watched the first hour of it. It is highly educational and gives a lot of hope for some potential in the PNW with the Siberia SSW event. We just need the Pac jet to cool its jets and things should change. Models have indicated that the jet will do that. 

[Deweydog 13311]

Should end up being PDX’s warmest NYE since at least 1996 (58/45).

Something to track!!!

[snow_wizard 10190]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The Ventrice video is highly recommended!

Disclaimer: This is an effort to pull some of you away from the cliff’s edge. 

 

 

I just don't get why some people are so negative.  Nina winters are often notorious late starters.  We have a lot of experts saying we are golden to get nailed later in the winter.  If this was a Nino I would get it, because they are usually front loaded winters.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13158]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You seem to bee in a pretty bad place right now.  I will admit I am kind of ragged myself though.

I'm actually not in a bad place at a personal level if that is what you mean. Kind of disappointed in how this thing is turning out though. I am not really worried about not getting snow. Up here it can snow until the end of April, heck it snowed on April 1st this year! 

Things seemed to be set up pretty nicely going into this winter, and it just has not panned out. Like TWL I know how disappointing this climate can be, and I guess I may have let myself get my hopes up. I really thought this winter had a chance to be one of the better ones of this Century, and now, that is pretty close to being completely off the table no matter what happens moving forward. 

[snow_wizard 10190]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I watched the first hour of it. It is highly educational and gives a lot of hope for some potential in the PNW with the Siberia SSW event. We just need the Pac jet to cool its jets and things should change. Models have indicated that the jet will do that. 

The demise of the PJ is being advertised already by all of the models.  Sometimes I think this forum is harder to deal with than our climate.  That last part wasn't in response to you BTW.

[snow_wizard 10190]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm actually not in a bad place at a personal level if that is what you mean. Kind of disappointed in how this thing is turning out though. I am not really worried about not getting snow. Up here it can snow until the end of April, heck it snowed on April 1st this year! 

Things seemed to be set up pretty nicely going into this winter, and it just has not panned out. Like TWL I know how disappointing this climate can be, and I guess I may have let myself get my hopes up. I really thought this winter had a chance to be one of the better ones of this Century, and now, that is pretty close to being completely off the table no matter what happens moving forward. 

It's Dec 31.....

[SilverFallsAndrew 13158]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's Dec 31.....

Sure thing, and we know we are pretty much going to make it through mid-January with nothing. I mean sure March 1951 could happen, and it may. The difference between me and you is, I am saying geez, this looks bleak, but you never know. You are acting like we are locked into getting something good, with literally no evidence. If anything today's EURO weeklies added fuel to the fire of those who are saying we are still a long way off from anything good. You are telling me, if we once again fail in January, that you will not be disappointed? We have scored multiple times in February over the past decade, we may very well again. For once it would be nice to score in the dead of winter, or at least score a nice arctic blast in our sweet spot. 

For a long time, I believed it was just random chance we had not scored a major arctic blast in January, one of these years it would happen. But time marches on and now we are 7 years removed from our last regional blast. At some point that has to mean something? 

[umadbro 590]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get why some people are so negative.  Nina winters are often notorious late starters.  We have a lot of experts saying we are golden to get nailed later in the winter.  If this was a Nino I would get it, because they are usually front loaded winters.

Gotta stop confusing negativity with realism. Just because people aren't jumping aboard what you or someone on the East Coast is saying, doesn't mean we're being negative. We know how the climate works around here. Realistically, it's very difficult for things to pan out around here, that's just a fact.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13158]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Gotta stop confusing negativity with realism. Just because people aren't jumping aboard what you or someone on the East Coast is saying, doesn't mean we're being negative. We know how the climate works around here. Realistically, it's very difficult for things to pan out around here, that's just a fact.

Maybe if we all just believe then it will happen?!

[iFred 4662]

With winter canceled, there will only be one thread covering January through April as the weather will effectively be same through out.

[OysterPrintout 748]

I DECLARE A FORUM FIGHT

[Rubus Leucodermis 941]

45 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Should end up being PDX’s warmest NYE since at least 1996 (58/45).

Something to track!!!

THINK 50 DEGREE RAIN! C'MON!!

[Phil 11011]

59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I have not had a chance to watch the video. But if an SSW is capable of overwhelming ENSO climatology the way Feb 2019 did, then are the QBO and Nina all that important (assuming the PV gets taken out)?

ENSO/QBO are always important since they assist in setting the low frequency pattern through which they may subsequently evolve and trigger SSW events.

The truth is no 2 ENSO events are alike, and it comes down to a *lot* more than SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region. The structure of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, meridional modes, annular modes, QBO/Brewer Dobson circulation, Indian Ocean Dipole/secondary standing waves, z-cell/ITCZ structures, etc, all work to modulate global wave trains.

[Phil 11011]

50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You seem to bee in a pretty bad place right now.  I will admit I am kind of ragged myself though.

I said that yesterday.

Everything will be ok Andrew. We love u.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13158]

To make myself even more depressed I am looking over that Ft. Vancouver dataset Justin linked the other day. 

[Phil 11011]

For whatever it’s worth, I’m sending good vibes your way, Andrew.  

[Link 17]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe if we all just believe then it will happen?!

Maybe if we all hold hands and not wear our masks it will happen?

[Link 17]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF weeklies still show we will reach the promised land.  It shows the pattern flipping to much more favorable around the 20th and then a strong signal for major cold in early February.  I will say we are far from due for a major cold February again, but they do tend to come in bunches.  The chances still look good for it to begin this month though.

Then it will be the 2nd week of Feb then it will be the 1st week of March which of course we will have some low foot hills now down to just above my house!   We will get a half inch of snow in early March once or twice. I can bet on that. 

[Deweydog 13311]

[BLI snowman 5850]

18 minutes ago, iFred said:

With winter canceled, there will only be one thread covering January through April as the weather will effectively be same through out.

I have thought about that as well.

Given that (at some point) we're actually likely to flip to troughing, I think a six month quasi-spring/winter hybrid could be in order. Basically 45-60 degree rain until mid May. 

[Front Ranger 7378]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I have not had a chance to watch the video. But if an SSW is capable of overwhelming ENSO climatology the way Feb 2019 did, then are the QBO and Nina all that important (assuming the PV gets taken out)?

I think all these things are factors with different levels of influence, but it's never just one thing that determines the outcome.

There have been SSWs that failed to deliver any cold air to the West, during all kinds of ENSO/QBO. And there have been winters that defied ENSO climo, without any SSW assistance.

[Link 17]

On 12/29/2020 at 7:08 PM, Front Ranger said:

Just for fun and to provide a wee bit of comfort for those fearing climate change has stolen winter forever...

5 Climate Predictions for 2020 That Didn't Pan Out

1. In 1987, James Hansen predicted that by 2020, global temperatures would rise by 3C. Instead, they've risen by .5C or less.

2. In 2006, Al Gore predicted that the snows of Kilimanjaro would disappear by 2020. They have not.

3. In 1986, the EPA predicted 2 feet of sea level rise for Florida by 2020. In reality, there has been less than 4".

4. In 2013, some predicted that Arctic sea ice would completely melt out by 2020. They were wrong by 3.9 million square miles.

5. In 2009, a government ecologist predicted that the glaciers in Glacier National Park would be gone by 2020. The park even put up signs with the prediction...which they have since removed.

They were basing their claims on the most extreme version of the models for media hysteria which it worked and fooled a bunch of youngones that were just coming to puberty at the time all this crap happened. They know think they hold the keys and want us to give up ours so we can have visitor passes instead.

[BLI snowman 5850]

All kidding aside, the extended GFS really still is about as bleak as I've ever seen for North American cold at this point. A literally non-stop Aleutian Low and +EPO with a furnace extending all the way up to the pole. This winter could break a lot of records, might as well be realistic about it. 

[Link 17]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

For whatever it’s worth, I’m sending good vibes your way, Andrew.  

Some of these? 8-BIT ARCADE - Good Vibrations (8-Bit the Beach Boys Emulation) - YouTube

[Deweydog 13311]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I have thought about that as well.

Given that (at some point) we're actually likely to flip to troughing, I think a six month quasi-spring/winter hybrid could be in order. Basically 45-60 degree rain until mid May. 

Cold spring seems like a given at this point.  Might be a night or two of legitimate coast range snow shadow anxiety out there somewhere.

[Link 17]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

All kidding aside, the extended GFS really still is about as bleak as I've ever seen for North American cold at this point. A literally non-stop Aleutian Low and +EPO with a furnace extending all the way up to the pole. This winter could break a lot of records, might as well be realistic about it. 

Do you think this resembles more of an El Nino then a La Nina like the atmosphere is stuck in a confused state? Seriously.

[Rubus Leucodermis 941]

3 minutes ago, Link said:

They were basing their claims on the most extreme version of the models for media hysteria which it worked and fooled a bunch of youngones that were just coming to puberty at the time all this crap happened. They know think they hold the keys and want us to give up ours so we can have visitor passes instead.

Still less wrong than the useful idiots denying it even exists or that humans have any role in it.

[Link 17]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cold spring seems like a given at this point.  Might be a night or two of legitimate coast range snow shadow anxiety out there somewhere.

Ever since Fukushima our climate has been 'off' ever since especially with delayed seasons being the new norm.

[TheNewCulverJosh 120]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'd say the final half is in play. We're two weeks away from half way through the month.

Reminds me of Frank Reynolds.  December had no lips, but January's mouth is still very much in play.