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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

To make myself even more depressed I am looking over that Ft. Vancouver dataset Justin linked the other day. 

That's like holding onto a picture of a long lost ex, Andrew (who broke up with you over AGW). It's time to let go. 

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

All kidding aside, the extended GFS really still is about as bleak as I've ever seen for North American cold at this point. A literally non-stop Aleutian Low and +EPO with a furnace extending all the way up to the pole. This winter could break a lot of records, might as well be realistic about it. 

You shouldn't put kidding aside when talking about the long range GFS.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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12 minutes ago, Link said:

Do you think this resembles more of an El Nino then a La Nina like the atmosphere is stuck in a confused state? Seriously.

A bit, although the southern stream energy has been pretty sporadic and the PNA is trending more neutral ish.

Ironically, the "Godzilla Nino" of 2015-16 was getting quite nippy around now!

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get why some people are so negative.  Nina winters are often notorious late starters.  We have a lot of experts saying we are golden to get nailed later in the winter.  If this was a Nino I would get it, because they are usually front loaded winters.

I know that and I wasn’t expecting an Arctic event or anything in December, but I wasn’t expecting the background state to be this crappy, either - especially considering westerly QBO. December is running +3.1 at PDX with today’s torch likely increasing that anomaly. Far cry from anything in 16-17. 

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My boys skied at Mt. Baker today... because they had been buried up there the last two days and because I told them that the ECMWF did not show much precip up there today.    Well it drizzled all day on them while skiing and visibility was horrible.    They said it was just miserable.  Typical skiing experience in the WA Cascades!    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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.58” today, 8.97” for the month and 65.72” for this POS year.  Give me a weenie vote, I see nothing encouraging in the models other than they now have 2021 written all over them.  Happy New Year.

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This is a portion if an article I found on Daily Kos regarding the current state of the "polar Vortex" 

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An article I found in Daily Kos 

 

One of the paradoxes of climate change is that reduction of sea ice on the European side of the Arctic basin leads to increased Siberian snowfall in the fall months and possibly colder than normal winter temperatures in central and eastern Siberia. There was an old (failed) hypothesis about glacial cycles that an ice free Arctic led to increased snowfall in Eurasia and north America which then led to a new glacial cycle. This hypothesis failed for multiple reasons, the most interesting being that open water in the European Arctic seas and greater than normal Siberian snow extent destabilizes the polar vortex. A strong polar vortex tends to keep cold air “locked up” in the Arctic. A sudden weakening of the vortex lets the cold air out of the Arctic. This winter, mainly because of the La Niña weather pattern caused by cold water in the equatorial western and central Pacific oceans, the sudden weakening of the polar vortex has driven the Arctic air out of Siberia and across the northwestern Pacific ocean behind an extreme cold front following a storm that “bombed” in the Aleutians.

Over the next month the west coast of North America will likely be hit by storm after storm as the intensified jet stream over the north Pacific brings on an extremely active weather pattern. California and Oregon will get much needed rains. Further north, unwelcome storm damage may happen because storms will likely be more intense than normal. Water temperatures in the north Pacific average well above normal. The enhanced outflow of Siberian air over the warmer than normal water will lead to stronger than normal storms.

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13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

8B635F2F-5BC9-4BAC-8393-1DB1BEEFCF57.jpeg

 

That would be nice... the ECMWF has been toying with that idea for several runs now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

That would nice... the ECMWF has been toying with that idea for several runs now.

12z had a quick dump of wet snow Saturday night in the North Sound as well.

925mb temps stay above freezing on the WRF though.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (2).png

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My boys skied at Mt. Baker today... because they had been buried up there the last two days and because I told them that the ECMWF did not show much precip up there today.    Well it drizzled all day on them while skiing and visibility was horrible.    They said it was just miserable.  Typical skiing experience in the WA Cascades!    

Yeah it was a very ugly day here.  Drizzle almost all day with very low clouds and temps in the mid 40’s.  A fitting end to a monstrously ugly year in many ways.

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13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z had a quick dump of wet snow Saturday night in the North Sound as well.

925mb temps stay above freezing on the WRF though.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (2).png

Everyone has been so preoccupied with cancelling winter that the active weather coming up has been put on the back burner. Wind on Saturday and snow on Sunday...Who cares. 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I think all these things are factors with different levels of influence, but it's never just one thing that determines the outcome.

There have been SSWs that failed to deliver any cold air to the West, during all kinds of ENSO/QBO. And there have been winters that defied ENSO climo, without any SSW assistance.

Which ones?

I think we should do away with the idea of “ENSO climo” Because stuff like that varies over decades and centuries.  

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Which ones?

I think we should do away with the idea of “ENSO climo” Because these things vary over decades and centuries.  

It’s still probably the best indicator we have for long lead stuff.  Very few of our warm or cold episodes have truly defied expectations over the last few decades. 2019 might be the only one and maybe 1995, at least for a few days.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

What does that Hour 69 map show for Oregon??  Hopefully it Fukks us on both ends huh?

Took me a second but I finally remembered what your picture is from.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean!
 
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time.
 
Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'
 
 
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15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean!
 
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time.
 
Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'
 
 

I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean over the next 10 days per the ECMWF!

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-npac_wide-total_snow_10to1-0280000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean!
 
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time.
 
Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'
 
 

That 83 mph was a gust. Highest sustained wind I see at that station in the past 24 hours is 64 mph.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=arh&sid=PASY&num=48

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean per the ECMWF!

 

ecmwf-deterministic-npac_wide-total_snow_10to1_cm-0280000.png

When it's not rain or mixed precip (look at the link I just posted in response to DJ Droppin).

It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean over the next 10 days per the ECMWF!

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-npac_wide-total_snow_10to1-0280000.png

Lots of snow in the Western Pacific at the same latitude as San Fransisco.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
140 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-012145-
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Southwest Interior-
Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
Olympics-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-North Coast-Central Coast-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-
Bremerton and Vicinity-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
140 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

Rainfall of 3 to 10 inches over much of the lowlands during the past
18 days has increased soil moisture to high levels across western
Washington. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 8 inches is expected Friday
through Sunday. This amount of rain will put extra pressure on soil
instability, leading to an increased threat of landslides.

Areas above 5000 feet in elevation will see some of the precipitation
as snow and not be as affected.

 

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
346 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

WAZ001-503-506-510-516-517-011300-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WI.Y.0027.210101T1800Z-210102T0300Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
Admiralty Inlet Area-North Coast-Central Coast-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon,
Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, Beaver,
Clearwater, Forks, La Push, Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen,
and Hoquiam
346 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
  Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area, North Coast and Central
  Coast.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around and damage unsecured
  objects, such as tents. Tree limbs could be blown down and a
  few power outages may result.

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Seattle WA
115 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

  ...THREAT OF FLOODING FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF
  WESTERN WASHINGTON...

A wet pattern is continue over western Washington well into next
week, with the new year coming in as the old year goes out. The
immediate concern is a storm coming in Friday followed by a much
bigger storm Saturday into Sunday. Next week will continue stormy as
well.  Impacts for Friday`s system could include urban and small
stream flooding, renewed flooding on the Skokomish River, and some
threat of landslides where any heavy downpours hit. For the weekend
system, there is the potential for more widespread river flooding,
urban and small stream flooding, and increased threat for landslides.

Forecast precipitation amounts from early Friday morning through
midday Sunday are 1 to 3 inches in the lowlands, 3 to 6 inches in
the Cascades, and 4 to 8 inches in the Olympics. The snow levels
won`t be super high and could be a limiting factor for storm runoff
and flooding, with snow levels rising modestly to 5000 to 7000 feet
with short periods of time where they lower to 3000 to 4000 feet.
Soil moisture in Western Washington is quite high, at or above
antecedent wetness indexes, such that the additional rain could
cause some landslides.

 

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48F and cloudy on this fallspring evening. One day maybe we will move to a climate that experiences what they call...winter.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Yeah, I got a new tune in composition entitled "The Thrill." And it goes somethin' like this: "I stand on the hill, not for a thrill, but for the breath of a fresh kill. Never mind the man who contemplates doin' away with license plates. He stands alone, anyhow, bakin' the cookies of discontent by the heat of the laundromat vent. Leavin' his soul!" Then like in poetry I go dot-dot-dot, you know, kinda off center, then I drop down and then I go: "Leavin' his soul! And partin' the waters of the medulla oblongata of - -brrrrrr! - -mankind!" That was a D**n good song, wasn't it Doyle?

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24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The last GFS run of 2020. I'm almost sentimental and emotional about it. Not really. I wouldn't expect anything dynamic or exciting Day 1-10, but ya never know. Most likely it's going to be awhile around Mid-January. C'MON!!!!

I'm totally expecting it to sh*t on us in typical 2020 fashion. 

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9 hours ago, MossMan said:

I could see Wild Bill heading out there to check it out! 

Wild Bill's main deckhand just died. ☹️ He was an assshole, but that's still a huge bummer. Possibly a drug overdose.

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The past few GFS runs have trended really mild for next week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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