December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[van city]

Many nervous people tonight. 

[Deweydog]

It’s December 11th.

 

 

But not for long!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Hmmm!

 

[Omegaraptor]

At the very least the weather is actually behaving like a Niña now.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

So here are my latest thoughts updating previous thoughts from my previously previous thoughts. It seems models in about 4-5 days are going to turn real interesting as we move closer to Christmas week. My prediction is the NPAC jet dies/retracts and near/after Christmas we either go into a major blocking/cold, or a big, fat ridge, inversion, "fake cold" pattern. C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 2 hours 21 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

Fake cold isn't fun, and ridges don't always produce them. Let's root for an *actual* cold snap.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty decent GFS run with some serious potential late in the run.  Meanwhile we have a legit mini cold snap going right now with NNE flow aloft, northerly surface pressure gradients, and low thicknesses.

Currently 31 under clear skies here.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fake cold isn't fun, and ridges don't always produce them. Let's root for an *actual* cold snap.

Any fake cold on the GFS is pretty short lived.  Fake cold can be fun if it comes with snow on the ground.  Usually that involves a ridge moving in over an established dome of cold air so it's more of a continuation than fake I suppose.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GEFS tonight shows a similar pattern, with a (hopefully transient) ridge setting up over our area. It looks like it has the potential to retrograde into a cold snap, but that would likely be short lived and transient in of itself as zonal flow in the Pacific remains relentless.

I try to remain optimistic, but it would be a real drag to go from zonal flow to +PNA death ridging again, as if it were repeating November's pattern cycle, especially given -ENSO and +QBO. At least it looks like a good bet for something later into January, but dear god I would hate to waste the best sun angles of the year for the ninth year in a row (16-17 was a shaft up here).

Onwards and upwards, let's reverse these trends with the 06z. There's potential here; even a transient cold snap would be great this time of year. Patience.

[Gradient Keeper]

@Meatyorologist are you running 6z tonight? It has been nice being able to take a small break from doing so. I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say we appreciate it.

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 53" of snow that month. Put it in January plz. Starting winter in February is just getting old. 

Cold Febs often come in bunches for whatever reason.  There have been some great ones in the period of record.  I know we all want to see a killer January though.  A top tier Jan would be amazing to see after so long without one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I will try to be up to make smart-a** comments too.

Looks like we are at 40F and cloudy with a light S wind of 2-3mph.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GEFS tonight shows a similar pattern, with a (hopefully transient) ridge setting up over our area. It looks like it has the potential to retrograde into a cold snap, but that would likely be short lived and transient in of itself as zonal flow in the Pacific remains relentless.

I try to remain optimistic, but it would be a real drag to go from zonal flow to +PNA death ridging again, as if it were repeating November's pattern cycle, especially given -ENSO and +QBO. At least it looks like a good bet for something later into January, but dear god I would hate to waste the best sun angles of the year for the ninth year in a row (16-17 was a shaft up here).

Onwards and upwards, let's reverse these trends with the 06z. There's potential here; even a transient cold snap would be great this time of year. Patience.

That low along the coast of Asia would teleconnect to a ridge further west.  If what is shown here verifies the ridge would probably amplify and pull back fairly quickly.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

@Meatyorologist are you running 6z tonight? It has been nice being able to take a small break from doing so. I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say we appreciate it.

Yeah, I don't mind. There's something nice about having something productive to do while being a rampant insomniac 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I will try to be up to make smart-a** comments too.

Looks like we are at 40F and cloudy with a light S wind of 2-3mph.

You must be just south of the northerly surface gradient.

[GHweatherChris]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fake cold isn't fun, and ridges don't always produce them. Let's root for an *actual* cold snap.

Amen

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

@Meatyorologist are you running 6z tonight? It has been nice being able to take a small break from doing so. I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say we appreciate it.

I don't think we need every frame posted from the 6z or 18z everyday, unless we are within 3 days of a potential event of winter weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You must be just south of the northerly surface gradient.

I guess. It’s normal here and one of the reasons we are the worst place for low elevation snow in the PNW besides the south coast. If you drew a random winter of total snowfall out of a hat from here, you would more than likely pull out a zero.

Seriously, if you want to have almost no snow and the most boring weather for the rest of your life, move here. Also prepare for at least 20 days of the year to be hotter than 90F and trees dying off.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I will try to be up to make smart-a** comments too.

Looks like we are at 40F and cloudy with a light S wind of 2-3mph.

Please do, the more company the merrier! It will be wonderful to watch the Death Ridge© take over the region through late February with others.  

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GEFS tonight shows a similar pattern, with a (hopefully transient) ridge setting up over our area. It looks like it has the potential to retrograde into a cold snap, but that would likely be short lived and transient in of itself as zonal flow in the Pacific remains relentless.

I try to remain optimistic, but it would be a real drag to go from zonal flow to +PNA death ridging again, as if it were repeating November's pattern cycle, especially given -ENSO and +QBO. At least it looks like a good bet for something later into January, but dear god I would hate to waste the best sun angles of the year for the ninth year in a row (16-17 was a shaft up here).

Onwards and upwards, let's reverse these trends with the 06z. There's potential here; even a transient cold snap would be great this time of year. Patience.

Jan 2017 was legitimately cold up here, but not much snow.  A large lake near here froze completely over for the only time this century so far that month.  We also got the big consolation snow in February.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I guess. It’s normal here and one of the reasons we are the worst place for low elevation snow in the PNW besides the south coast. If you drew a random winter of total snowfall out of a hat from here, you would more than likely pull out a zero.

Seriously, if you want to have almost no snow and the most boring weather for the rest of your life, move here. Also prepare for at least 20 days of the year to be hotter than 90F and trees dying off.

Sounds pretty grim.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I don't think we need every frame posted from the 6z or 18z everyday, unless we are within 3 days of a potential event of winter weather.

I know, but there's something so satisfying about archiving these runs. Imagine the unthinkable happens and we do get a historic, 1980's redux-style Siberian snap; in the future we can go back and look at what we were thinking before it all went down. It would be cool.

Also Fred doesn't mind, and I don't either. So expect more! (I only do the 06z, anyways...)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Sounds pretty grim.

Yup. But we take it in stride. Just have to find other things to pass the time. Like video games or sports. Several times when I was in college my family back home in Yamhill County would talk about them getting a few inches of snow and it was like 45F and just a normal winter day. Fukkin sucks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS shows a big ridge over us, and a growing ridge toward the Aleutian Islands.  Since EPS is an average and not an actual model wondering if the EPS has two possible scenarios.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know, but there's something so satisfying about archiving these runs. Imagine the unthinkable happens and we do get a historic, 1980's redux-style Siberian snap; in the future we can go back and look at what we were thinking before it all went down. It would be cool.

Also Fred doesn't mind, and I don't either. So expect more! (I only do the 06z, anyways...)

We can agree to disagree, and that is okay.  We are our own person and will not always agree, that is okay with me. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS shows a big ridge over us, and a growing ridge toward the Aleutian Islands.  Since EPS is an average and not an actual model wondering if the EPS has two possible scenarios.

Probably suggestive of the fact the pattern stays progressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS shows a big ridge over us, and a growing ridge toward the Aleutian Islands.  Since EPS is an average and not an actual model wondering if the EPS has two possible scenarios.

There we go. The two exact model solutions I'm confident we move towards near/after Christmas. You can see it coming. Major blocking/cold, or .... big ridge, inversion, "fake cold" .... You pick!

12z GFS in 7 hours 42 minutes

[Jesse]

18 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I don't think we need every frame posted from the 6z or 18z everyday, unless we are within 3 days of a potential event of winter weather.

What on earth is wrong with it? It’s what this place is for. Oh and meaningless repetition of specific dates.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I guess. It’s normal here and one of the reasons we are the worst place for low elevation snow in the PNW besides the south coast. If you drew a random winter of total snowfall out of a hat from here, you would more than likely pull out a zero.

Seriously, if you want to have almost no snow and the most boring weather for the rest of your life, move here. Also prepare for at least 20 days of the year to be hotter than 90F and trees dying off.

I get your situation, maybe not to the same extent as you, but it's not that great here. My location is:

1. Basically at sea level.

2. Sandwiched in between two moderating bodies of water.

3. Influenced directly by the UHI (though thankfully we are the best location in Seattle for that, though that's not saying much at all.)

4. JUST too far south for any reliable PSCZ placement (yes we can get super lucky, but so can anyone else here south of Lynwood.)

5. JUST too far north for undercutters.

6. Directly in the Olympic precip shadow. That has cost us plenty of snow.

7. In the direct path of the Snoqualmie east wind gap that eats away at incoming snowfall.

I live in the *worst* location for snowfall in the Puget Sound lowlands, and it can really suck. Back in February 2017 during that "epic" snowfall where most areas got at least half a foot, my location was in the donut hole. 33F drizzle until 1am, and by then there was only enough moisture left for an inch to accumulate. West Seattle got 9".

Even our normally exciting weather is crappy. We are sheltered from the southwesterlies that come with our windstorms. Summertime thunderstorms dissipate as they descend down the Cascade foothills. I'm sure you could write a billion different things for your location that are for worse than mine, but I get it. It sucks being the donut hole of your respective climate. Just ask @Phil about the DC Snow Hole, I'm sure you'll trigger his PTSD from 2018-19.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fake cold isn't fun, and ridges don't always produce them.

Half agree. Fake cold can be fun.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What on earth is wrong with it? It’s what this place is for. Oh and meaningless repetition of specific dates.

It’s December 12th.

25 years ago today it got breezy and WARM.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Archiving it like a ballgame is pretty cool TBH. I like to go back and look at the late Jan 2019 posts when we were all just about to close down and lock up the winter.

[GHweatherChris]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What on earth is wrong with it? It’s what this place is for. Oh and meaningless repetition of specific dates.

What date(s) are you referring to?  

Oh, and we can also agree to disagree, and that is ok as well, Jesse.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Half agree. Fake cold can be fun.

That's no fair, you get hoar frost in those situations!  We down here just injure ourselves by slipping on the sidewalk going to the car.. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Archiving it like a ballgame is pretty cool TBH. I like to go back and look at the late Jan 2019 posts when we were all just about to close down and lock up the winter.

I think the only person that didn’t was Tim.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I get your situation, maybe not to the same extent as you, but it's not that great here. My location is:

1. Basically at sea level.

2. Sandwiched in between two moderating bodies of water.

3. Influenced directly by the UHI (though thankfully we are the best location in Seattle for that, though that's not saying much at all.)

4. JUST too far south for any reliable PSCZ placement (yes we can get super lucky, but so can anyone else here south of Lynwood.)

5. JUST too far north for undercutters.

6. Directly in the Olympic precip shadow. That has cost us plenty of snow.

7. In the direct path of the Snoqualmie east wind gap that eats away at incoming snowfall.

I live in the *worst* location for snowfall in the Puget Sound lowlands, and it can really suck. Back in February 2017 during that "epic" snowfall where most areas got at least half a foot, my location was in the donut hole. 33F drizzle until 1am, and by then there was only enough moisture left for an inch to accumulate. West Seattle got 9".

Even our normally exciting weather is crappy. We are sheltered from the southwesterlies that come with our windstorms. Summertime thunderstorms dissipate as they descend down the Cascade foothills. I'm sure you could write a billion different things for your location that are for worse than mine, but I get it. It sucks being the donut hole of your respective climate. Just ask @Phil about the DC Snow Hole, I'm sure you'll trigger his PTSD from 2018-19.

Sounds like we are both in just about the statistically-worst places in our microclimate zones. Makes it all the more awesome when great things like Feb 2019 happen.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Archiving it like a ballgame is pretty cool TBH. I like to go back and look at the late Jan 2019 posts when we were all just about to close down and lock up the winter.

You would enjoy the November and early December 2008 threads.  Wish Fred could dig those up

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sounds like we are both in just about the statistically-worst places in our microclimate zones. Makes it all the more awesome when great things like Feb 2019 happen.

Absolutely. I used to always pine against the world for raising me in Seattle of all places. But recently I've wondered if my limited exposure to interesting weather only invigorated my passion. Either way, I'm moving higher here or way out east when I'm (hopefully) financially stable. No need to tease myself.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sounds like we are both in just about the statistically-worst places in our microclimate zones. Makes it all the more awesome when great things like Feb 2019 happen.

Experienced five winters on Bainbridge and they were all pretty underwhelming in the snow department, and then February 2019 happened. And even then, the big dump of snow on the 8th/9th was a total tease: I got skunked on the snow until after midnight. Soon after I went to bed in disgust a snow band formed over me and proceeded to dump until 9 AM. Ended up with 9" despite getting a late start on the accumulating.