December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS shows a big ridge over us, and a growing ridge toward the Aleutian Islands.  Since EPS is an average and not an actual model wondering if the EPS has two possible scenarios.

A lot of times those two piece ridges will consolidate into a big block.  Very promising signature there.  Besides that there's a pretty good signal for a decent little cold trough around day 10 on both the EPS mean and control.  The control certainly shows the early makings of a block at the end of the run.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

You would enjoy the November and early December 2008 threads.  Wish Fred could dig those up

 

Indeed.  I seem to remember a lot of the world is ending posts in November and early December.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 30 here now.  Solidly chilly night.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

I don't think we need every frame posted from the 6z or 18z everyday, unless we are within 3 days of a potential event of winter weather.

Perhaps, but just you wait when the time comes and I'm analyzing every single notch posting every 6hr frame. Just you wait! Yeah!

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I guess. It’s normal here and one of the reasons we are the worst place for low elevation snow in the PNW besides the south coast. If you drew a random winter of total snowfall out of a hat from here, you would more than likely pull out a zero.

Seriously, if you want to have almost no snow and the most boring weather for the rest of your life, move here. Also prepare for at least 20 days of the year to be hotter than 90F and trees dying off.

Could be worse. Could be Roseburg.

[GHweatherChris]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Perhaps, but just you wait when the time comes and I'm analyzing every single notch posting every 6hr frame. Just you wait! Yeah!

Then it better be worth the waste of time.

[GHweatherChris]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Absolutely. I used to always pine against the world for raising me in Seattle of all places. But recently I've wondered if my limited exposure to interesting weather only invigorated my passion. Either way, I'm moving higher here or way out east when I'm (hopefully) financially stable. No need to tease myself.

At least you didn't grow up in Westport like I did, that will teach you to appreciate snow more than anything. 

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's no fair, you get hoar frost in those situations!  We down here just injure ourselves by slipping on the sidewalk going to the car.. 

So ice doesn’t happen when it’s upper level cold? 

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sounds like we are both in just about the statistically-worst places in our microclimate zones. Makes it all the more awesome when great things like Feb 2019 happen.

I live in what's technically supposed to be one of the best locations in Portland for snow (about 1000' in the West Hills) but even so the last couple of years have been quite the flop especially considering the potential. Hopefully this year?

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Absolutely. I used to always pine against the world for raising me in Seattle of all places. But recently I've wondered if my limited exposure to interesting weather only invigorated my passion. Either way, I'm moving higher here or way out east when I'm (hopefully) financially stable. No need to tease myself.

Oh you and me both-- replacing Seattle with Portland that is. But I realize that we really are very fortunate to live in such a gorgeous place, even if it isn't the most weather exciting location.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.

@GHweatherChris

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS Day 1

@GHweatherChris

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

[Meatyorologist]

I think I'm the only one who's been noticing but this CFS run is PRETTY. WOW. Completely bogus, but pretty.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Come on GFS give us something!!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think I'm the only one who's been noticing but this CFS run is PRETTY. WOW. Completely bogus, but pretty.

I just looked at it. Ummm... Yeah. Wow. Ironically however, the mean axis position of the ridge/pivoting block is pretty much in line with the GEFS extended and Weeklies which both shows a very persistent pattern setting up after Christmas well into January. Amazing potential. Who knows! C'MON!!!!

Day 10-29 GIF (Run has not yet completed)

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I just looked at it. Ummm... Yeah. Wow. Ironically however, the mean axis position of the ridge/pivoting block is pretty much in line with the GEFS extended and Weeklies which both shows a very persistent pattern setting up after Christmas well into January. Amazing potential. Who knows! C'MON!!!!

Day 10-29 GIF (Run has not yet completed)

Move that 500 miles west and Lake Washington partially freezes over.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

[El_Nina]

Pretty heavy fog and still 35 out there. Ended up with exactly an inch yesterday, which brings December up to 2.06". 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 8

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 9

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 10

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 11

[Dave]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I guess. It’s normal here and one of the reasons we are the worst place for low elevation snow in the PNW besides the south coast. If you drew a random winter of total snowfall out of a hat from here, you would more than likely pull out a zero.

Seriously, if you want to have almost no snow and the most boring weather for the rest of your life, move here. Also prepare for at least 20 days of the year to be hotter than 90F and trees dying off.

It barely snows more in Portland, Seattle, or Salem than it does here. When the Willamette Valley is snowy, Eugene is generally snowy as well. The lack of snow here is in your mind and you can't seem to get over it. Does Eugene get hosed sometimes? Yep. Those other areas do too.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 12

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 13

It's trying to get there with that forming block off to the west...

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 14

[Gradient Keeper]

Patience. (c) @TigerWoodsLibido

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 15

[Meatyorologist]

You guys might like the final frame...  

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 16

[Meatyorologist]

Now the pattern is a bit muddy, so the air isn't all that "arctic" by the time blocking arrives, but the pattern is there. Onto the 12z.

As for yesterday's note I left, I guess we really did only have to wait until today.

Onwards and upwards my friends.

[Gradient Keeper]

We're getting there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's see if the 6z GEFS Day 9+ continues to be far less progressive than the Op runs.