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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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gfs_z500a_npac_65.thumb.png.8831cf9e864ad3d5995ba5060463deef.png

This isn't the worst end to a model run I've ever seen. I think people are dunking on this because they see warmth over us and "WARM BAD!"

But really this looks like we finally get the ability for some blocking in the long range, and unfortunately for us on this *specific* run it happened to set up right on top of us (still with the potential for retrograding.) Of course models won't nail down blocking locations more than two weeks out. Again, not the worst run ever, by a mile.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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And of course the CFS run just sh*t out whatever that was, so there's that.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1534577271_500h_anom.npac(4).thumb.png.7a0a624167faabd4ca3105302ba6cfe2.png

18z GEFS is pretty confident in an amplifying ridge setting up NNW of Hawaii in tandem with a polar gyre north of the Koreas. Good location, but a little too progressive with its movement.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's not really surprising, though. Usually those patterns are associated with our hot weather. Our death ridge is just their blocking pattern that digs arctic air south to the Gulf of Mexico.

IDK, it just helps me feel better knowing it's not just a random awful twist of fate.

If that trough just dig a little bit more we might see falling iguanas in FL. A nice way to ring in the New Year’s... falling iguanas. 

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12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Georgia/SC gets a major snowstorm. The northeast gets a massive snowstorm and seattle gets rain!! La Niña at its finest

We'll be fine.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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In actuality if you combine the 18z operational with the ensemble you get a decent picture.  The operational has the amplitude and the ensemble has the good placement in the long range.  The big difference with this operational run was the ridge after the Dec 23 trough pumps up more and forces the big block to form further west. Good chance that will change on subsequent runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We’ve gone 30 years without a white Christmas here. Not all that disappointing when the majority of the people in town have never experienced one.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I'm pleasantly surprised the clearing is holding until well after sunset.  Might squeeze out another freeze tonight.  Already down to 37 here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We’ve gone 30 years without a white Christmas here. Not all that disappointing when the majority of the people in town have never experienced one.

I can't believe you didn't get one in 2008.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't believe you didn't get one in 2008.

We’ve been over this before. Eugene did well with the initial arctic blast around December 14-16th. The snow line with the later stuff was between Salem and Albany. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1534577271_500h_anom.npac(4).thumb.png.7a0a624167faabd4ca3105302ba6cfe2.png

18z GEFS is pretty confident in an amplifying ridge setting up NNW of Hawaii in tandem with a polar gyre north of the Koreas. Good location, but a little too progressive with its movement.

The models seem pretty confident the progressive nature of the pattern is going to cease around Christmas.  Everything starts to lock at that point.  Right now that trough digging off the coast of Asia looks very promising to me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In actuality if you combine the 18z operational with the ensemble you get a decent picture.  The operational has the amplitude and the ensemble has the good placement in the long range.  The big difference with this operational run was the ridge after the Dec 23 trough pumps up more and forces the big block to form further west. Good chance that will change on subsequent runs.

Correct Jim

Baby steps

we will get there in the next few days regarding the placement of the ridge and up coming cold pattern ❄️🎄

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Just now, weatherwonder said:

Correct Jim

Baby steps

we will get there in the next few days regarding the placement of the ridge and up coming cold pattern ❄️🎄

We won't "get there" until at the most a few days out. But there is potential.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I forgot to mention Weatherbell updated their winter forecast the other day and now has us colder than normal for Dec - Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwonder said:

Correct Jim

Baby steps

we will get there in the next few days regarding the placement of the ridge and up coming cold pattern ❄️🎄

I'm feeling pretty good about the latest model trends and MJO forecasts.  I think the 18z ended up not as desirable due to one detail not going well for block placement late in the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The clock is ticking on December.   But good to know they think we will be cold.  Anything different than their earlier forecast?

I think they're betting on January/February dragging down the average. Seattle is running +4.2 on the month so far.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Drives me crazy when I see that area have a massive snow event while we are in the 50’s up here. 🤬🤮

I've had some weird things around here. When Redding had a foot of snow in 2019, it was raining at my place.
It went back to snow so it was no biggie. lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think they're betting on January/February dragging down the average. Seattle is running +4.2 on the month so far.

A lot of places are running quite a bit cooler due to cold low temps early in the month.  My monthly average is down to 42.3 now which is just a couple above normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The clock is ticking on December.   But good to know they think we will be cold.  Anything different than their earlier forecast?

The new forecast has a pretty strong N to S anomaly gradient across the entire country from Great Lakes Westward.  That type of theme is usually good for snow for the Seattle area.  We don't do as well when the anomaly gradient is more E to W.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Dow to 35 now.  Hopefully it can stay clear for a while longer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3rd straight sub 40 high today. Not super unusual as our average high is down to 41

for the date, but feels like winter is here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The clock is ticking on December.   But good to know they think we will be cold.  Anything different than their earlier forecast?

It’s a Dec.- Feb. overall data period, not a monthly, so my guess is they’re counting on Jan. and Feb. being colder. We’ll see I guess. 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of places are running quite a bit cooler due to cold low temps early in the month.  My monthly average is down to 42.3 now which is just a couple above normal.

Yeah, Seattle WFO is running +2.8 and OLM +2.0. SEA, as usual, is the warm outlier.

A forum for the end of the world.

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2 hours ago, Jbolin said:

Quick update for you guys. 

Despite my positive COVID test result I will be heading into the ER later this afternoon for further treatment, specifically to address my ever increasing breathing issues that are further compounded by my asthma.

Otherwise I am doing well but still feeling like crap, I'm able to keep food down after vomiting for a few days, fever is almost nonexistent and some of my most severe symptoms have waned but I am still fairly weak and lethargic. 

Hoping for better days ahead. 

Take care my dysfunctional family

Kick its a** brother.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.thumb.png.ba27a0b834c2df7f0b6774e3a85850b0.png

I find it crazy how a region that is unequivocally subtropical year-round has this four month period out of the year where it can randomly get a ten inch snowstorm. Not many other places in the world are like this, save for SE Asia.

That would be painful to watch for me. Especially if Wednesday’s storm is a torchy slopfest.

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1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

At 16 days away I wouldn't expect the pattern to even be similar to this.

You don’t say?

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Oof as Phil says, we have to wait til March for significant troughing.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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