December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 16

Ending it off beautifully. Now what a still image won't show you is the polar gyre to the north of Alaska rocketing SSW as the block amplifies. Let your imagination run wild...  

This is our potential.

Patience.

[Meatyorologist]

Sometimes I wish I could pay off NOAA to run more hours on the GFS. Wow, this is beautiful at hour 450. God. Blast to the past. Total bogus, but so d*** pretty.

[Meatyorologist]

Meanwhile the CFS abandons reality as an alien block forms over the poles. @Phil when was the last time something like this happened?

[El_Nina]

0.19" rain all at 37 degrees. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS Day 16

Ending it off beautifully. Now what a still image won't show you is the polar gyre to the north of Alaska rocketing SSW as the block amplifies. Let your imagination run wild...  

This is our potential.

Patience.

I would really like that trough pattern to verify so that the entire west coast can get some much-needed precip!! I know it is in Fantasyland, though.

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I would really like that trough pattern to verify so that the entire west coast can get some much-needed precip!! I know it is in Fantasyland, though.

Absolutely, I understand you have been getting unseasonal fires in the last month down there. The good news is that PNW cold patterns tend to produce wandering cutoff lows about 75% of the time, many of them migrating down into your area. Hope you get your rain!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GEFS ensemble suite follows a similar pattern progression to the OP run. if you're looking for a "model shift", then this is it. EPS/GEFS/CMCE and their associated OP runs all toy with some variation of this pattern; some more favorably than others.

[FroYoBro]

Getting some heavy rain as this strong band is moving through. Only 38 degrees. We were fairly close to getting some wintery precip. this weekend. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GEFS ensemble suite follows a similar pattern progression to the OP run. if you're looking for a "model shift", then this is it. EPS/GEFS/CMCE and their associated OP runs all toy with some variation of this pattern; some more favorably than others.

You beat me to it(which is fine!) Yeah beautiful pattern progression Day 10-16. I like it.

12z GFS in 1 hour 5 minutes

[Cloud]

Picked up about 0.20” of rain overnight. 

[TT-SEA]

Dry and 37 here now... and there is a little snow on the ground  

I woke up at 3:45 and saw it was snowing pretty hard but radar showed it was about to end.    Guessing maybe an inch fell. 

[TT-SEA]

[Cloud]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dry and 37 here now... and there is a little snow on the ground  

I woke up at 3:45 and saw it was snowing pretty hard but radar showed it was about to end.    Guessing maybe an inch fell. 

Is this your first accumulation of the season? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Also sorry, @Brian_in_Leavenworth for using my reply to write an essay.  I guess I had a few things on my mind.

It was a good write up, thanks!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Is this your first accumulation of the season? 

Can't remember the dates... but there was sticking snow for a short time during the day back in October and then one evening in November when the ground was covered for a short time but then it melted overnight.     

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

Still some gray over western Whatcom County, which would mean flakes in the air for me if it verifies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z had a major snow event for the southern plains on Christmas Eve. Tulsa is getting their first legit snow storm in probably 6-7 years today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

38˚F with some cold rain showers. Overnight low (before clouds and breezes associated with the incoming system arrived) was 31˚F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z wasn't very good in the long range. Not sure what the excitement was about. Block is WAY to far west and the PNW is in mild SW flow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

NWS forecast is calling for 50˚F rain here by Saturday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you have a weak stomach, may not want to look at the 12z. 

[The Swamp]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 06z wasn't very good in the long range. Not sure what the excitement was about. Block is WAY to far west and the PNW is in mild SW flow. 

You aren't really supposed to look at it that way.  You are supposed to look at the maps and dream about the possibilities.

[paulb/eugene]

lol a sneaky field goal for Eugene before Xmas

[Deweydog]

It hasn’t snowed a single flurry, but Santa dear we’re in a hurry!!!!!!!

#patients

[The Swamp]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It hasn’t snowed a single flurry, but Santa dear we’re in a hurry!!!!!!!

#patients

https://summit.news/2020/12/11/nhs-commercial-terrifies-children-by-showing-santa-dying-of-covid/

I heard Santa was dying from Covid.

#covidpatient

[Deweydog]

It’s December 13th.

12 years ago today there were some very chilly showers around and snow in the mountains.

[El_Nina]

Currently overcast and 39. Lots of rain in the 30s this morning and the past few days. 0.46" brings December to 2.53". 

[Omegaraptor]

Honestly these models are looking pretty discouraging. No sign of Arctic cold or significant lowland snow anywhere near the PNW in the next two weeks. If they still look like this by late month, I’d be getting pretty concerned. 

[TT-SEA]

Actually snowing again here now... the east wind is still going.

[El_Nina]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Honestly these models are looking pretty discouraging. No sign of Arctic cold or significant lowland snow anywhere near the PNW in the next two weeks. If they still look like this by late month, I’d be getting pretty concerned. 

At least we're going back into an active pattern. Snowpack was only able to dip back down to average this month after the early November snow that brought it up over 400% at one point. Now it's headed back above average already. 

And a snowstorm could show up pretty fast and unexpectedly through February. It's not always gonna be perfectly forecasted two weeks out like in 2008 (except Rod Hill). 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

35 and wet snow. Not much else to report.

[TacomaWaWx]

40 and raining...0.12” this morning to hit 0.99” on the month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

At least we're going back into an active pattern. Snowpack was only able to dip back down to average this month after the early November snow that brought it up over 400% at one point. Now it's headed back above average already. 

And a snowstorm could show up pretty fast and unexpectedly through February. It's not always gonna be perfectly forecasted two weeks out like in 2008 (except Rod Hill). 

 

Yeah not sure why people are upset nothings happened yet. Still pretty early. If there’s nothing still showing up  6 weeks from now I’d be concerned. Overall it’s more likely we see snow than not in any given year. In the last 15 years we’ve only had 3 years with no snow accumulations whatsoever...04/05, 09/10 and 15/16. It’ll snow at some point. Odds are even more in our favor this winter than average. La Niñas are typically better in the second half too. 

[El_Nina]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah not sure why people are upset nothings happened yet. Still pretty early. If there’s nothing still showing up  6 weeks from now I’d be concerned. Overall it’s more likely we see snow than not in any given year. In the last 15 years we’ve only had 3 years with no snow accumulations whatsoever...04/05, 09/10 and 15/16. It’ll snow at some point. Odds are even more in our favor this winter than average. La Niñas are typically better in the second half too. 

I'm just glad the pattern is more active this year overall. Last November we didn't even see 3 inches of rain, more than tripled that this year. September and October both featured convection here at least once.

That September thunderstorm was the strongest/strangest I've ever experienced here. It was still really smoky from the labor day fires then suddenly the flood gates were opened and we picked up over an inch of rain in 20-30 minutes. Huge Florida type raindrops as well.

[Deweydog]

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

I'm just glad the pattern is more active this year overall. Last November we didn't even see 3 inches of rain, more than tripled that this year. September and October both featured convection here at least once.

That September thunderstorm was the strongest/strangest I've ever experienced here. It was still really smoky from the labor day fires then suddenly the flood gates were opened and we picked up over an inch of rain in 20-30 minutes. Huge Florida type raindrops as well.

We had 1.83” last November....6.97” this November much improved! I think we had some thunderstorms up this way in September but I was in Texas for them. We had a really good thunderstorm on 10/13 this October. This fall was much better in terms of active weather than the last one. Fall 2019 was the driest I’ve recorded...lots of pretty sunrise and sunset photos though and a really cold October. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2.69" of rain now on the month. Up to about 50% of average. 

[TT-SEA]

The radar looks pretty active... but there is just some very light snow drifting down here with a temp of 34 and a dewpoint of 29.    East wind keeping the low levels dry and allowing for snow rather than rain.    

[Timmy Supercell]

Surprising that a station in suburban K-Falls had roughly the same amount of snow in that last event.

16-17 had a total very close to me, but each individual event usually had minor differences.

[MossMan]

Had some rain/snow mixed earlier. Now just rain and 39. 
Oh and this should turn the models around...