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September 2014 observation and discussions


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Looks like a warm open to September but the Euro is indicating a strong cold front dropping down into the Plains but may loose steam as it heads into the GL region.  I think this month will turn out near normal to slightly below.  The month I think will start out on the warmer end and then turn colder towards the end.  We will start to see signs of the new LRC pattern towards late September and it will be interesting to see how that starts to evolve.

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I can't really remember what last year was like, but a repeat of that happening is sure possible given the SST's and a neutral ENSO like we had last year.  The analogs for this month indicate near normal temps in our region, with above normal to the east.  This month is when the jet stream starts to strengthen up north and can sometimes create a ridge and pump up temps out ahead of storm systems that track into Canada.  I think if systems take a track from the Rockies/Plains/Upper Midwest, it can pump some big time warmth during this month as storms get stronger.

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Euro pumping near 90F temps next Thu/Fri/Sat....if that ridge can hold strong, I can see that happening.  The last attempt to mother nature had to bring us heat fell apart bc the frontal boundary was to close nearby.  Both CFSv2/Euro and now GFS trying to push it farther north into N Wisco.

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Warm/hot starts to Septembers are pretty typical. I've yet to see a 90° high here though this year!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is probably one of the coldest runs on the GFS this season!  Cross Polar flow is evident and it resembles the part of the LRC which saw strong cold fronts.

 

I just checked the Euro ensembles and they also concur in this time period.  Major cold pool will develop over Canada next 2 weeks.  I think it may even snow up there already this early in the season!  Wouldn't that be a shocker given the very warm summer they have had up there.

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12z GFS run shows the first snows of the season up in the Archipelago regions of Canada and even in N Alaska!  It's a bit early to see snows this time of year.  I remember last year parts of Alaska had their first snowfalls in late Sept or early October, I don't remember exactly but nonetheless it was very early.  To see snow during the 1st week of September is remarkable. 

 

Having said that, the below normal arctic regions this summer definitely has some credence to the reason why its going to get chilly up there.  Its only speculation, but imagine if the snow cover up there begins to fill up in early October???  That would be one heck of a way to drive a fast start to winter this season.

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As we head into the first part of September, the Euro ensembles for the past couple days are honing in on a much different pattern up in the northern latitudes in Canada/Alaska.  Reinforcing shots of cold air are the beginning of Autumn up that way.  Some of them even make their way into the northern Rockies/Plains.  Massive riding near the Bearing Sea is the culprit here dislodging any cold air starting to build up in the arctic.  It's fascinating to see this evolving so early.

 

Btw, check out the blocking near Greenland.  This has developed over the past couple weeks and looks to continue.  IMO, Mother Nature is trying to tell us something of what to expect this winter season.

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A very chilly weekend on tap next week.  Euro showing highs near 70F for 3 straight days.  This is the time of year cool shots start to have a different "feel".  I don't think this month will be as warm as some mets are forecasting.  I can see another up and down month along with active storminess.  Same pattern, same result.

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The storms last night held together long enough to drop 0.80" here.  I'm pretty satisfied with that total.  In the last week we've had rains of 0.37", 0.46", and 0.80".  The grass has really greened up in a hurry.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The heat waves were over done this season, but the cool shots were not IMO.  Heading deeper into September, these cool shots will have more vigor.  The LRC is still repeating the same ol' pattern and I can see a consistent NW flow of cold fronts to hit the region.  I think JB is going to bust on having a warm Fall using his analog theory.

 

Now that looks like a fast start to Autumn!

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I'm liking what the CFSv2 is showing for this month.  It resembles the same cold pool of air up in Canada last year that unleashed the cold into the U.S.  As the seasonal change in the jet stream begins to strengthen in time, we will see this pool of cold begin to dig deeper into the U.S.

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Models keep showing warmth rebuilding by next week after this short lived cool spell coming up this weekend.

Not sure what models your looking at.  Maybe the GFS, but the warmth will be a brief 2 day event before another major cold shot hits the region.  00z Euro and CFSv2 both seeing this.  Euro brings in below normal temps for a good 5 day stretch after this coming weekend.  Looks like it will warm again, with more cold building and brewing in NW Canada.

 

If you believe in the LRC, this is the same NW Flow we have seen since last Fall.  Except for maybe June and August, this has been the same pattern.  Now as we begin to turn the corner and head into Autumn, the cool will come more frequently.

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For those who are interested: Fairbanks, AK issued their first Winter Storm Warning this past Friday.  Up to 14 inches of snow fell up that way in the mountain ranges.  Last year Fairbanks received their first measurable snowfall Sept 18.  This year they may break that date.  October 1st is the average date.

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