Jump to content

September 2014 observation and discussions


Recommended Posts

Temps by the middle of this month are forecasted to have highs in the 50's for my area and lows flirting with upper 30's. Now, that's a real cool shot for September standards. Before that happens, possible near 90 by weeks end. Yikes! Then, it cools down over the weekend, but, the real, chilly air is for the following weekend (mid Month).

 

Edit: My weatherman earlier today said that the PV will make its appearance more frequently this winter. He said that its not guaranteed exactly where and how far south the PV will go, but made a statement that somebody in the US will get frigid this upcoming winter. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temps by the middle of this month are forecasted to have highs in the 50's for my area and lows flirting with upper 30's. Now, that's a real cool shot for September standards. Before that happens, possible near 90 by weeks end. Yikes! Then, it cools down over the weekend, but, the real, chilly air is for the following weekend (mid Month).

 

Edit: My weatherman earlier today said that the PV will make its appearance more frequently this winter. He said that its not guaranteed exactly where and how far south the PV will go, but made a statement that somebody in the US will get frigid this upcoming winter. 

Given the geographical location of our region, I think we are in the right "zone" to see the PV.  Its wild to see how Canada has flipped to a complete opposite "feel" this month from the above normal temps this summer and the wild fires they experienced up near the NW Territories.  It's fascinating to see the jet stream do its dirty work and the seasonal changes commence.

 

I'm very curious to see how the LRC evolves this year.  I'm almost confident there will be waves of clipper trains due to the NW Flow from the warm waters in the NE Pacific.  If the wet pattern continues into October/November like the JMA model has indicated, then another wild winter may be on tap.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now the GFS jumping on the bandwagon with a major cold shot around the 11/12th this month.  This is what I had expected if you followed the LRC.  It is absolutely amazing to see this pattern STILL cycling in its final cycle.  If this is a sign of things to come this Fall/Winter, its gonna get nasty.

 

First time this season I see the Euro spitting out snow in the Northwoods.  Obviously its overdone, probably more or less some flurries/snow showers in the air if this even transpires at night more or less, but nonetheless Autumn is knocking on our doorsteps!  Showing a potent "Clipper" type system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

September is a month I need to remain mild because its peak migration for hummingbirds and I need my garden to be in full bloom.  Each of the last two years there was a cool shot mid-month.  Last year we hit 41 on the 14th.  Two years ago we also hit low 40s on the 14th, but it stayed cool for a few days... and then we plummeted into the upper 20s on the 23rd and 24th.  I hope we can avoid anything like that until mid October.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

September is a month I need to remain mild because its peak migration for hummingbirds and I need my garden to be in full bloom.  Each of the last two years there was a cool shot mid-month.  Last year we hit 41 on the 14th.  Two years ago we also hit low 40s on the 14th, but it stayed cool for a few days... and then we plummeted into the upper 20s on the 23rd and 24th.  I hope we can avoid anything like that until mid October.

I am worried about an early season frost/freeze in our region.  Crops are at record growth and I'm sure some farmers are hoping to harvest soon.  I do remember last year it got chilly early on.  Something along those lines are certainly in the cards this year. It may even get worse than last year.  We'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I just looked at the 12z GFS run and it has highs in the freakin' 50's on the 11th/12th/13th/14th!  Even nighttime lows in the 30's in WI/MN.  Cool shots have hit with more vigor than the warmth this year.  Mind boggling if anything comes close to what the GFS is showing now.  Un-believ-able.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh yes, it's so "fun" to go into the fantasy range of models and look for cold fronts producing unfathomably cold air masses. Oblivious to the fact that IF such an air mass verified, an early killing frost would transpire; the growers and the economy would not benefit very greatly too. This, of course, will occur right after our late start to spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, people already with 240 GFS "output". That's pretty sad.

What is sad is people like you who want to believe in warmth when the reality is its not coming due to the pattern this year, especially now since we are in September.  I'm a firm believe in the LRC's persistency this year, even in its last leg of this year's cycle and it will outperform any other forecasting strategy, IMO.  So taking a gander at the 240 hr run is just an observation at what the model may be "hinting" at, especially since the Euro and its ensembles are "seeing" it to.  Look, I'd love to see warmth this month as well, the Farmer's need it and I don't want food prices to go up any farther as they have already.  Heck, I'd still love to take my buddy's yacht on Lake Michigan a couple more times.  Maybe we will be lucky and catch a break one of these weekends and have a warmer days still ahead, just like this weekend.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, looks like this should be a fun winter with all the great new people on the board. Posting a 240 map isn't saying it's going to happen (only a 12 year old would react as such). Probably the same ones on other boards posting record heat and severe weather outbreaks 10 days in advance as if it must happen. (example)The best local met in town predicts tomorrows temp at the 10pm news. He needs to be within 4 degrees either way so if 70 is predicated as long as it is not under 66 and not over 74 he wins. Right now I believe the count is 136 correct and somewhere around 26 wrong. That's less than 24 hours out. That is all good day.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's nice to see some significant early season snowfalls in Western Canada, our source region for cold during winter.  This is exactly what you want to see to have a cold winter ahead.  Ridging near Alaska, will pump that cold down south.  If its going to snow early on this year up north, I'd expect to see the cold shots to have more "punch" this Autumn around here.  Build that snow cover early, you build that cold air dome.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it's looking like a heavy rain event tomorrow morning for some folks.

 

 

If this happens, I'm going to guess it is not going to make 90°!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have seen these type of cool downs in July, now as we head deeper into September they are going to pack a bigger punch...ouch!  Dust off those long sleeves and jackets!

 

This will be very interesting to see evolve on the models. Never seen a frost earlier than about the 25th of September here locally. Would be devastating possibly to the agricultural sector though.

 

Definitely have the warm North Pacific still.

 

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Euro still advertising a nasty cool shot late next week...another one right after that that reforms in Canada and heads right back down.  Following the same NW Flow that has dominated our weather pattern last year.  Last night Skilling mentioned that this may be the common theme this Fall.  I concur.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember the PV that hit us in July and was a common theme this past winter???  Well, a nice packed vortex is showing up late next week!  Right on time according to the LRC, approx. 58 days later.  The placement and consistency is remarkable and a part of the reason why I believe we will see a much cooler month.

 

Edit:  Now that is why we look at the 240hr run and see if the models are picking up on forecasting ideas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember the PV that hit us in July and was a common theme this past winter???  Well, a nice packed vortex is showing up late next week!  Right on time according to the LRC, approx. 58 days later.  The placement and consistency is remarkable and a part of the reason why I believe we will see a much cooler month.

 

Edit:  Now that is why we look at the 240hr run and see if the models are picking up on forecasting ideas.

 

That is amazing Tom! It's crazy how accurate the LRC is; I can't wait until we start to see the new pattern unfold in the next couple of weeks, going to be an exciting time. This summer around my parts we have had copious amounts of moisture and I'm hoping it continues into the winter. Last winter around my parts was absolutely dreadful. While most of the country saw tons of snow and cold I was stuck w/ the cold and a whopping 13" of snow for the entire year! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is amazing Tom! It's crazy how accurate the LRC is; I can't wait until we start to see the new pattern unfold in the next couple of weeks, going to be an exciting time. This summer around my parts we have had copious amounts of moisture and I'm hoping it continues into the winter. Last winter around my parts was absolutely dreadful. While most of the country saw tons of snow and cold I was stuck w/ the cold and a whopping 13" of snow for the entire year! 

Within the next 4 weeks or so we will begin to see some changes.  I don't expect drastic changes though, however, your area may see an increase in moisture this Autumn.  JMA hinted at above normal precip in your area which is good news. 

 

Last year was just horrible for your region.  I can't imagine seeing sub zero cold and bare brown ground.  Depressing to say the least.  If we can ignite that subtropical jet stream this winter and marry it with the polar jet...Boom!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I gotta say is, 12z GFS run would be devastating for crop in NE/IA/IL/WI/MN.  A few nights with temps in the 30's is no bueno.  It would be unthinkable to get this D**n cold in September.  That's like end of October early November temperatures.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CPC...right in the heart of Crop Nation.  I hope these farmers start harvesting immediately!

 

Edit:  For those that live in IA/NE, let us know if the news is starting to talk about the cold coming next week.  I'm sure they will be letting farmers know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CPC...right in the heart of Crop Nation.  I hope these farmers start harvesting immediately!

 

Edit:  For those that live in IA/NE, let us know if the news is starting to talk about the cold coming next week.  I'm sure they will be letting farmers know.

Holy cow that is cold, my garden will be done and over with if those temps verify! I'm not ready for the growing season to be over, my tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers have been absolutely amazing all summer long! This would be way too early for freezes that's for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom. No weather service or station is picking up this cold coming. I live in central Nebraska and it supposed to wet and chilly tomorrow high's in the 50's and a low of 45 tomorrow night. I coach football so jackets tomorrow night on September 5th. I am loving the possibilities of a cold fall and winter. Way to cold last year with less than 20 inches of snow for the season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...