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September 2014 observation and discussions


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I think the safe bet is for the mets to wait a few more days and see if the models sustain the significant cool down next week before jumping all in.  The way it looks now on the Euro would be real bad.  Nobody believed the July cool down would be significant and it was.  Highs in the 50's would be wild this early in the season.

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Just saw that nws Hastings is talking about a cool down with possible highs in the 50's but lows in the 40's late next week. No mention of frost or lows in the 30's. However, as I have said many times before in tbis forum, nws Hastings is very conservative in their forecasts and they don't jump on anything too quickly until much closer to an event.

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I love it......but I hope the farmers dont get screwed. It's a record crop so hopefully that doesn't get ruined. Would be terrible.

Farmers won't be screwed, they have been makings millions this past decade or so. What they need to be worried about is the grain prices being so low and the millions of dollars in loans they owe the bankers. They need to be hoping no extreme droughts anytime soon, that's just my two cents......

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Just saw that nws Hastings is talking about a cool down with possible highs in the 50's but lows in the 40's late next week. No mention of frost or lows in the 30's. However, as I have said many times before in tbis forum, nws Hastings is very conservative in their forecasts and they don't jump on anything too quickly until much closer to an event.

Couldn't have said it better, they are extremely conservative! They would never put out a blizzard watch 50 hours out like Chicago NWS did couple years back. I want a cool down, just no frost/freeze yet my garden is doing too good!

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I think the safe bet is for the mets to wait a few more days and see if the models sustain the significant cool down next week before jumping all in.  The way it looks now on the Euro would be real bad.  Nobody believed the July cool down would be significant and it was.  Highs in the 50's would be wild this early in the season.

This is just my suggestion because I'm not a moderator; but someone please combine lakes with central plains soon! There Is only like 3 of us that read or post anything over there. Too dead on that forum, would like to join up with you guys if possible....

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This is just my suggestion because I'm not a moderator; but someone please combine lakes with central plains soon! There Is only like 3 of us that read or post anything over there. Too dead on that forum, would like to join up with you guys if possible....

Ya, I clicked on the board for your location and its completely dead!  Maybe later on in the Fall and as we head closer to Winter it'll pick up.  Our region has a lot of consistent members that post every now and then.  BTW, it must fell like autumn out by you in NE.  Next week it is our turn as the strongest cold front of the season is poised to hit the region. 

 

Looks like a long stretch of much below normal temps are on tap by next Friday heading deeper into mid/late September.  This is the part of the LRC where we experienced a series of cold fronts.

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Looks like the polar express arrives by end of next week. My highs just keep getting colder and colder. Now, by next Friday my highs are expected to top at near 60 or slightly higher and lows in the low 40's (42 to be exact) and on Saturday, highs in the upper 50's and lows flirting with the upper 30's. Its gets colder the following week, as a series of cold air just keeps funneling into the US. 

 

Edit: October is even colder. I would not be surprise if my area see's flurries or snowshowers next month. I did last year. Dusted the area right before Halloween. It was a beautiful scene.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like the polar express arrives by end of next week. My highs just keep getting colder and colder. Now, by next Friday my highs are expected to top at near 60 or slightly higher and lows in the low 40's (42 to be exact) and on Saturday, highs in the upper 50's and lows flirting with the upper 30's. Its gets colder the following week, as a series of cold air just keeps funneling into the US. 

 

Edit: October is even colder. I would not be surprise if my area see's flurries or snowshowers next month. I did last year. Dusted the area right before Halloween. It was a beautiful scene.

Indeed Niko's, models are def getting colder and stronger with a series of cold fronts that will attack the region this month.  Fits right with the pattern that established itself last Fall!  I'm thinking as we head into October, there will be a similar pattern that will set up for this upcoming season.  In fact, I was just taking a peak at the CFSv2 maps for the remainder of this month into October and its showing a series of systems from the Plains to the GL all month long and even hints of early season snows in this region.  This Fall has the potential to be extraordinarily cold this year.  This is just a hunch, but by mid November some of us may be seeing accumulating snows!  Very well could be by Thanksgiving.  I'm seeing some serious eye opening chill as we head into October/November.

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Getting nailed by probably the strongest storm of the year!  Powerful downdrafts hitting my area right now, tree's all over the place, torrential rains but no hail thankfully.

 

Edit: Hit a juicy 88F before the storm hit.  Probably the last time we see temps this high for the year.  At least we are going out in a blast!

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Those storms were a welcome relief as temps had climbed a good 10º higher than forecast today, and that air was almost too thick to breathe. Sucked that the timing/location/duration of today and yesterdays rains weren't accurately forecast though, at least for those of us who work outside.

 

Example: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1142 AM CDT

COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER
IOWA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE KS/SE NE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN FRONT SLOWING DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. GOES EAST IS IN
RAPID SCAN MODE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NICELY SHOWING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CUMULUS FIELD RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL THE CUMULUS FIELD ON SATELLITE AND OUT THE
WINDOW LOOKS VERY MUSHY AND LACKING VERTICAL GROWTH...LIKELY DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE VERY FORMIDABLE CAP EVIDENT ON DVN/ILX MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND STILL PRESENT IN RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD
AND MDW. CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CAUSE CAP TO BUST...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE FRONT IS AT LEAST TO
A CHICAGO TO PERU LINE IF NOT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. WILL BE REWORKING
POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING...INCLUDING VERY
LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER NORTHWEST CWA AND STEADILY DECREASING
CHANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
POST FRONT RAIN STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED KS/NE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

 

Also, in yesterday (last night's?) AFD about where storms would develop, it was mentioned it would be east of I55, when in fact it was well west of I39. (Roughly 100 miles)

 

Does that sound too picky, or would this be considered a bust? Is there something more challenging about the past week's weather that has made it more difficult to predict?

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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Those storms were a welcome relief as temps had climbed a good 10º higher than forecast today, and that air was almost too thick to breathe. Sucked that the timing/location/duration of today and yesterdays rains weren't accurately forecast though, at least for those of us who work outside.

 

Example: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

306 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

 

.DISCUSSION...

1142 AM CDT

 

COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE

THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST

ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER

IOWA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE KS/SE NE WILL PROBABLY

RESULT IN FRONT SLOWING DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. GOES EAST IS IN

RAPID SCAN MODE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NICELY SHOWING SOME

ENHANCEMENT TO THE CUMULUS FIELD RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL THE CUMULUS FIELD ON SATELLITE AND OUT THE

WINDOW LOOKS VERY MUSHY AND LACKING VERTICAL GROWTH...LIKELY DUE

IN LARGE PART TO THE VERY FORMIDABLE CAP EVIDENT ON DVN/ILX MORNING

SOUNDINGS AND STILL PRESENT IN RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD

AND MDW. CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY

LAYER ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY

CAUSE CAP TO BUST...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE FRONT IS AT LEAST TO

A CHICAGO TO PERU LINE IF NOT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. WILL BE REWORKING

POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING...INCLUDING VERY

LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER NORTHWEST CWA AND STEADILY DECREASING

CHANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS

AFTERNOON. POST FRONT RAIN STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS

EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED KS/NE SHORTWAVE TRACKS

NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

 

Also, in yesterday (last night's?) AFD about where storms would develop, it was mentioned it would be east of I55, when in fact it was well west of I39. (Roughly 100 miles)

 

Does that sound too picky, or would this be considered a bust? Is there something more challenging about the past week's weather that has made it more difficult to predict?

Definitely looks like the front slowed down a bit.  Even now, more storms are firing up and heading to the city and points south.  Looks like a rainy evening and overnight.  I'm just glad I'm not going to have to use the AC for a while.  Probably the last day of the year.

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O-M-G....what is worrisome is models are getting colder, not warmer.

 

That is something to get nervous about!

 

86° for a high.

In the last 2 days it has rained 1.60" here. 63°/59° currently. Feels like fall!

Closing in on 30" of water year to date.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think the safe bet is for the mets to wait a few more days and see if the models sustain the significant cool down next week before jumping all in.  The way it looks now on the Euro would be real bad.  Nobody believed the July cool down would be significant and it was.  Highs in the 50's would be wild this early in the season.

 

They're jumping on the idea already this evening! I think it was Caplan that had a couple mornings in the 40s.

I think we will see that buckle in the jet stream happen.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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What a refreshing day today.  It's finally nice not to step outside and start sweating!  The storms last night were more powerful than I thought.  Northbrook/Palatine and cities nearby had 70-80mph winds.  A lot still without power.  Luckily, I was just about 2 miles enough far south and missed the brunt of it.  My buddy in Prospect Hts had huge trees down in his backyard.

 

Looks like by next Thursday a good 7-10 day stretch of much below normal temps are in the cards.  2 significant cool downs are in the play field.  I think the trees will begin to change color by end of next weekend.  Folks in IA may consider harvesting their crop before Friday night when mid/upper 30's are forecasted.

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DMX talking heavy rain middle of next week and possible mid 50s for highs next Saturday.

Could be a big time severe weather outbreak.  Euro going bonkers spinning up 983mb SLP into Upper Midwest!  This would be an all-out blizzard in the winter time.  I like that we are seeing phased systems this early in the Fall.  This season has potential to have many phased storms. 

 

If it were winter th_snow would get crushed!

 

Edit: Actually, come to think about it, this is part of the LRC that brought those 3 major storms that hit the Upper Midwest last Winter.

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Check out the 6z GFS. A little snow showing up across the Dakotas to Lake Superior!

 

Meanwhile a low of 51° here this morning.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z Euro advertising another monster shot at cold targeting the Plains.  Even some minor snow being painted next Mon/Tue.

 

That's mid-October level stuff!

 

Noticed the ENSO value is straight 0.0 for JJA.

 

ARX wx graphic.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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What has been the ENSO value recently?

 

It's been coming back to neutral after being -0.6 early this year. +0.1 to 0.0 this summer.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Should see this post by Bastardi. Cold shot that is coming is more like a late fall shot!

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/508638801892483072/photo/1

 

---

 

As far as this week, it looks like a widespread area of heavy rain for the region.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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