September 2014 observation and discussions

[Tom]

There is an interesting battle in the 15day plus range where a ridge wants to build in.  Euro ensembles and weeklies bring in major warmth.  It will be interesting if the LRC continues its pattern or if a ridge builds in and takes hold.

[Tom]

Both the AO/NAO tank come mid month, meanwhile, the PNA heads into positive territory.  All 3 signs point to a chilly period.  I think the models will respond.

[james1976]

this pattern reminds me of last year

[Tom]

12z Euro blasting mid 40's for highs on Friday for IA/WI...hello late November!  This is going to be a shock to the system for sure.  At least we have bon fire weather coming for this weekend!

[Geos]

12z Euro blasting mid 40's for highs on Friday for IA/WI...hello late November!  This is going to be a shock to the system for sure.  At least we have bon fire weather coming for this weekend!

 

That would be nuts to have highs that low! wow!

 

I am going to start a thread for a long range/early winter discussion.

 

When have we had major warmth this year...!? That's the kind of thing, I wouldn't believe it till I see (feel) it! haha

 

Medium range discussion from BUF.

 

 

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE TREND

TOWARDS A -NAO/-AO REGIME STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH

ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COUPLED WITH CHANGES ALREADY UNDERWAY IN

THE PACIFIC...AS RECENT ROSSBY WAVE DISPERSION INTO THE MID

LATITUDES FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC HAS

AMPLIFIED THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN RE-CURVE EAST OF

JAPAN AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...WITH THAT INFLUX OF TROPICAL

ENERGY FORCING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER

THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CASCADE DOWNSTREAM AND AID IN STRONG

AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTH AMERICA...YIELDING A +PNA PATTERN IN MOST

ENSEMBLES. THE COUPLED +PNA AND -NAO PATTERN WILL PRODUCE AN

ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND

FORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY 8-14 PERIOD.

 

[Tom]

That would be nuts to have highs that low! wow!

 

I am going to start a thread for a long range/early winter discussion.

 

When have we had major warmth this year...!? That's the kind of thing, I wouldn't believe it till I see (feel) it! haha

 

Medium range discussion from BUF.

There ya go, same thing I pointed out earlier today.  I think JB is going to bust on his warm eastern forecast...IMO.  We have seen this many times over the past 10 months (especially last Fall/Winter/Spring) when the models saw warmth, but it didn't come.  We're entering that time of year we have to start sniffing these patterns out as the jet is strengthening.

[Tom]

JB has been downplaying about how Accuweather was predicting the Polar Vortex intrusion towards the end of September and his thoughts of this happening was slim to nill.  I do believe in many of JB's thoughts and predictions, but this one he might be wrong on.  According to what is happening in the western Pacific  (near Japan) and the teleconnections begin to respond to this, it may be a very chilly ending to this month.

[Geos]

18z NAM predicted rainfall for the next 72 hours.

 

[Geos]

Today in Alberta!

 

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/september-snow-blankets-parts-of-southern-alberta-1.1996893

[james1976]

Des Moines AFD is a good read. Possible tornadoes and 4-5 inch rains in the next couple days. Highs late week may not hit 60 and may set record low max temps. Friday night 30s are possible. The word "frost" was mentioned. 

Wild weather and I hope it continues into fall/winter!

[james1976]

Today in Alberta!

 

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/september-snow-blankets-parts-of-southern-alberta-1.1996893

That is impressive! Sept 8th! Makes me feel good about our winter if they are already getting snow up there.

[james1976]

That's a cold rain for here in Iowa.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_093_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Geos]

A big area of heavy rain at that.

 

[Tom]

A big area of heavy rain at that.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/09/08/18/NAM_221_2014090818_F72_PCPIN_72_HR.png

Looks like a nasty squall line may hit in the wee hours of the morning when everyone is sleeping.  Those type of events aren't the best of timing since its late at night.  Nonetheless, heavy rain and severe storms are in store.

[Hawkeye]

Picked up an inch of rain overnight on the west edge of the pretty stationary MCS.  Much more rain fell north and east of me, even just a couple miles.

[Geos]

From Skilling's FB wall.

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro even colder and for a longer period next week.  Has highs not going above the upper 60's through Thursday. Still showing mid 40's in IA on Friday.

[BrianJK]

12z Euro even colder and for a longer period next week.  Has highs not going above the upper 60's through Thursday. Still showing mid 40's in IA on Friday.

 

Gross

[Geos]

This is quite the discussion from Chicago LOT.

 

 

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THE SFC LOW IS
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RAMPING UP OVER
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SETTING UP VERY STRONG
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION POINTING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXTENDING FROM WRN IOWA INTO CNTRL
IL. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
NORBERT ADVECT OVER THE REGION AT THE MID LEVELS. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A SWATH OF PWATS OF 2.0 TO 2.5
INCHES POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...A STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COUPLED JET ALOFT WILL ALL COMBINE TO GENERATE
STRONG AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE SHEAR
IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN SLY SFC WINDS AND 50 KT SWLY WINDS AT
925-850MB TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE SUPPORTING SOME
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH THE GENERAL THUNDER. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX/DVN INDICATE
THE FREEZING LEVEL AT 13KFT AND WITH PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UNTIL
THE FROPA. SO...WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG
ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...THE HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS SHOULD GIVE AMPLE TIME FOR SOME MELTING. AS FOR THE WIND
THREAT...WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTING OVER THE
AREA...STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FORM. SO...STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
DURING THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL...

THROUGH THE NIGHT...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO MORE
LINES OR CLUSTERS...AND EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL TO ABOUT 700MB
SWLY...AND WLY-WNWLY JET-LEVEL WINDS...CELL MOVEMENT WITHIN THE
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE LARGER
SCALE PATTERN IS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST. SO...ANTICIPATE
THAT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OR
TRAINING OF STORMS. ALL ELEMENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR FROM SOME STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FORTUNATELY...THE PATTERN WILL BE SLOWLY...BUT STEADILY
PROGRESSIVE...SO RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD RATHER THAN CONFINED TO
A SMALL AREA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT STORM TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE
ARND 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES. IN AREAS OF TRAINING OR REPEATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURG THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY DURG THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH NWRN INDIANA.

 

[Tom]

Gross

On top of that, Euro ensembles have a different look now and are no longer showing ridging in the region.  In fact, showing another cool down late next week and a more intense one on the horizon for later in the month.  A series of cold fronts is what the LRC had in store for this month.  It's fascinating to see the models show that trend even though they weren't in the beginning.  Teleconnections also support colder than normal.

[Geos]

On top of that, Euro ensembles have a different look now and are no longer showing ridging in the region.  In fact, showing another cool down late next week and a more intense one on the horizon for later in the month.  A series of cold fronts is what the LRC had in store for this month.  It's fascinating to see the models show that trend even though they weren't in the beginning.  Teleconnections also support colder than normal.

 

Have to watch to see how many Typhoons might recurve!

[Tom]

I hope these storms don't knock out any power overnight.  That was a pretty intense worded LOT discussion to say the least.

[Tom]

QPF totals...E IA/N NW IL in the bullseye....

[Hawkeye]

Strong storms blew up over sw/sc Iowa and then sank southeast from there, pretty much blowing up the expected big rain farther north.  Even the light to moderate rain shield couldn't make it north of hw20 in Iowa.  I managed to pick up 1.19", which gives me a nice 2-day total of 2.18".  That's more than enough rain at this time of year.  I don't want 9 inches like Kirksville, MO received overnight.

[Tom]

Had a nice soaker last night as well...ORD picked up 1.29".  Looking forward to a nice stretch of dry weather.  Hoping this chill takes care of the mosquitos.  Wondering how much, if any, leaves begin to change color during this cold spell into next week.

[Tom]

A nasty Friday shaping up for NE/IA with overcast skies and showery weather!  Very chilly temps, probably not getting out of the 40's.  I'm expecting some Frost advisory to be issued Friday night all the way from NE/IA to MN/WI.

[james1976]

i only picked up .30" last night. way less than forecasted.

[gabel23]

A nasty Friday shaping up for NE/IA with overcast skies and showery weather!  Very chilly temps, probably not getting out of the 40's.  I'm expecting some Frost advisory to be issued Friday night all the way from NE/IA to MN/WI.

 

holy cow that is cold!! WWA was posted for the black hills; they are expecting anywhere from 3-6" of snow!! I picked up 3.30" of rain last night, we are in a flood warning until tonight, part of highway 92 is closed west of Osceola b/c of water running across. I have seen over a foot of rain in the past 4 weeks! Looks like frost advisory's will be a good bet for us on Friday. 

[Meichel]

Total of 1" of rain here. Storm itself was pretty meager.

[james1976]

DMX saying northern Iowa may hit 32 friday night.

[Geos]

A nasty Friday shaping up for NE/IA with overcast skies and showery weather!  Very chilly temps, probably not getting out of the 40's.  I'm expecting some Frost advisory to be issued Friday night all the way from NE/IA to MN/WI.

 

Low 40s is going to be a shock after the last few days!

 

Cold front only 20 miles away now. Falling into the 50s quickly behind it. About 0.80" of rain - will have to double check that though when I get home.

[Tom]

Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot???

[Niko]

Starting tomorrow, chilly air invades my area until further notice. Mainly 60s for highs and 40s for lows, although, Saturday could be exceptionally chilly with highs not getting out of the upper 50s and lows probably flirting with upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Hello Autumn!!! 

Also, I would not be surprised to see some color on the trees next week.

[Niko]

Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot???

Wow Tom...that is some chilly air invading our country. Hopefully, it can move slightly more east and cover the Great Lakes region.

[gabel23]

Starting tomorrow, chilly air invades my area until further notice. Mainly 60s for highs and 40s for lows, although, Saturday could be exceptionally chilly with highs not getting out of the upper 50s and lows probably flirting with upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Hello Autumn!!! 

Also, I would not be surprised to see some color on the trees next week.

My forecast grid is calling for a low of 34 Saturday morning, is this mid October??? Our beans are finally starting to turn color so I'm sure the trees should be doing the same thing in areas. Farmers will be battling harvest and snow if it doesn't dry out soon.....

[james1976]

Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot???

This is prolly the cold shot that Andrew has been talking about.

[gabel23]

holy cow that is cold!! WWA was posted for the black hills; they are expecting anywhere from 3-6" of snow!! I picked up 3.30" of rain last night, we are in a flood warning until tonight, part of highway 92 is closed west of Osceola b/c of water running across. I have seen over a foot of rain in the past 4 weeks! Looks like frost advisory's will be a good bet for us on Friday.

 

Check that, wsw for black hills and it's early September!! 3-7" of snow, I have a question tom, how close is this to the storm last fall in the LRC that hit the same areas?? Has to be close which means the new LRC should be starting soon.

[james1976]

holy cow that is cold!! WWA was posted for the black hills; they are expecting anywhere from 3-6" of snow!! I picked up 3.30" of rain last night, we are in a flood warning until tonight, part of highway 92 is closed west of Osceola b/c of water running across. I have seen over a foot of rain in the past 4 weeks! Looks like frost advisory's will be a good bet for us on Friday. 

When do the black hills usually get their first snow? Isn't this a bit early?

[Tom]

Autumn is certainly coming out of the gates fast this year.  This current cold shot has some legs to it.  Highs will be in the 50's and 60's for a good 5 day stretch before things warm into low 70's for a day or two (which is still below normal).

 

@ James, that end of the month predicted cold shot is something that may have to do with the new LRC cycle setting up.  We'll see how this may evolve in the coming week. 

 

It's nice to see the forum come to alive and ppl coming out of hibernation!  Hahaha...At this time last year I was rather excited about the winter season.  This year, I'm even more excited knowing what could be one hell ova Winter season!  So many similarities showing up and the pieces to the puzzle coming together.

[Tom]

Check that, wsw for black hills and it's early September!! 3-7" of snow, I have a question tom, how close is this to the storm last fall in the LRC that hit the same areas?? Has to be close which means the new LRC should be starting soon.

It's still the same LRC cycle accompanied by a very strong cold front that is causing up sloping snowfall.  It's not necessarily a "system" snow like we saw last October.  It just goes to show you how strong this punch of cold air is to cause up sloping in early September.