September 2014 observation and discussions

[james1976]

Yup, trees are starting to show a touch of color over here too!

[Tom]

I just turned it on too! It was 61° in here.

 

52° for the official high. Currently 45°, WC of 39°.

 

I noticed a handful of trees now are showing the first bits of color.

One by one we are giving in...I'm about to do the same.  Worst thing is waking up cold as hell in the middle of the night, esp if low 40's are being predicted tonight!  I remember last year my furnace stopped working during the coldest night of the season when it was -14F...it got down to 53F!  That blew balls.

[Meichel]

One by one we are giving in...I'm about to do the same.  Worst thing is waking up cold as hell in the middle of the night, esp if low 40's are being predicted tonight!  I remember last year my furnace stopped working during the coldest night of the season when it was -14F...it got down to 53F!  That blew balls.

I'll bet something was blue.....

[Tom]

I'll bet something was blue.....

Lol....

[Geos]

I'm watching the satellite image. It's clearing out quickly to the west. No doubt it's heading under 40° tonight later!

 

43° here at home.

[james1976]

41 and clear over here.

[Tom]

ORD got down to 41F, not sure if that set a new record low temp or not.  Parts of IA got down to 32F.  Probably not getting out of the 50's again today!  If that happens, 3 days in the 50's has to be some sort of 100 year old record.  This pattern is part of the LRC that set record low temps back in July and during the PV intrusions last winter. 

 

Meanwhile, stratus deck starting to form near the lake up in SE WI/NE IL that should keep temps from rising much over the next few hours.  00z Euro run has a re-enforcing cold shot Thu/Fri in the Lakes and temps barely getting to 60F again!

 

BTW, Euro ensembles now really starting to sniff out that late month cold shot this far out.  Both the Control and Ensembles seem very bullish this far in advance.  Let's see how this one evolves and if its the beginning of the new LRC pattern setting up for this season.

[Tom]

Here is a quote from Mike Caplan on FB:

 

 

Congratulations. We have all just made it through the coldest morning any of us has ever felt so early in the season. The record low today of 39 in 1890 stands as the only morning that would be colder this early in meteorological autumn

 

[Tom]

From DMX...near Jame's place...

 

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE MASON CITY AIRPORT WAS 31 DEGREES THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS THE LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED FOR THIS
DATE AT LAMONI. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 34 DEGREES
SET IN 1963.
 

[Meichel]

Bottomed out at 39º IMBY as well.

[james1976]

Pretty amazing stuff. Got up late in the night and i had 35 but im not sure what the official low was. Had to be close to 32!

[Geos]

Peaked at 55° here today. Clouds did clear out pretty much after 1pm.

 

LOT talking about scattered frost tonight.

 

 

.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA.

QUIET BUT COOL AFTERNOON AS EARLY MORNING STRATUS LINGERED AND
THEN EXPANDED WITH STRATOCU STILL PRESENT OVER THE CWA. CONTINUED
CAA AND THIS CLOUD COVERED LIMITED DAYTIME WARMING TODAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT
RISING OUT OF THE 50S TODAY. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THEN REMAINING SITUATED OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SETUP FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BE
IN PLACE. SOME WEAK WAA IS STILL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT THIS SLIGHT WARMING MAY ARRIVE TOO
LATE TO HAVE AN OVERALL IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT MAINTAINING MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT DID LOWER TEMPS TO THE UPPER
30S OVER AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS
WELL AS EXPANDED MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. WITH WARMER
SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN PLACE AS WELL AS HIGHLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TONIGHT AND HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE ZONES/HWO.

 

[Niko]

Coldest night tonight IMBY, thats for sure. Going in the 30s with clearing skies. WOW!!!! That is cold for mid September. I can only imagine how cold October will be. Also, trees here are starting to change color ever since this chill arrived. My high temp today only managed to make it up to 55 degrees. Brrrr!!

[Tom]

End of the month cold shot on the CFSv2...pretty impressive if it verifies.  Does it score a coupe???

 

 

Edit: The warm up before this cold shot should feel real nice.  80's will feel like 90's at the rate we are going now.

[Geos]

End of the month cold shot on the CFSv2...pretty impressive if it verifies.  Does it score a coupe???

 

 

Edit: The warm up before this cold shot should feel real nice.  80's will feel like 90's at the rate we are going now.

 

The warm advertised must be beyond the 7 day, because this coming week looks like 60s mainly.

 

Already 43° here.

[Tom]

I'd like to share this amazing video of a couple on vacation back on August 29th when that volcano erupted in Papua New Guinea.  You rarely see these type of images caught before they happen.  The shock wave is incredible!

 

http://abc7chicago.com/weather/video-volcanic-eruption-causes-sonic-boom/306999/

[Tom]

East Asian Theory/LRC leading the way for an end of the month cool down.  12z Euro Control seeing it...

 

[Tom]

I knew this sub 60F streak was record setting....

 

From LOT:

 

 

Chicago Just Had its Earliest Streak of 3-Days or More Under 60 Degrees on Record

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
251 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 /351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

THE RECENT STREAK ON SEPTEMBER 11-13 OF DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
IN CHICAGO WAS THE EARLIEST STREAK OF THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OR
MORE WITH HIGHS LESS THAN 60 DEGREES ON RECORD. RECORDS IN CHICAGO
GO BACK TO 1871.

OVERALL...IT WAS ONLY THE 23RD TIME SUCH A STREAK HAS OCCURRED IN
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
BACK IN 1875 FROM 9/17 UNTIL 9/22.

HERE ARE THE TOP 3 EARLIEST STREAKS OF 3+ DAYS IN THE 50S OR LOWER:

2014
SEPTEMBER 11: 56* NEW RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DATE. PREVIOUS: 61 (1940)
SEPTEMBER 12: 55
SEPTEMBER 13: 59

1923
SEPTEMBER 13: 56
SEPTEMBER 14: 54* RECORD LOW MAX FOR DATE.
SEPTEMBER 15: 59

2011
SEPTEMBER 14: 58
SEPTEMBER 15: 59
SEPTEMBER 16: 58

$$

RC
 

[Geos]

East Asian Theory/LRC leading the way for an end of the month cool down.  12z Euro Control seeing it...

 

That's one hefty cold shot! Probably a frost to accompany that one.

 

Noticing the 60s on Lake Michigan are becoming more scarce the last few days.

 

[Tom]

The lake is definitely cooling quite a bit in recent days.  Tomorrow may be another sub 60F day with rain it looks like.

 

 

Hope the Bear's pull off this comeback!  Come on boys!  Do it for Tillman baby!

[Tom]

12z Euro sending a pretty potent punch of cold air into the Lakes by early next week!  Mon-Wed look colder than what we just experienced.  Possible freezes up in Wisco and first Frost's in N IL/S WI

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has traded in its mild to warm zonal flow through ten days for another big cold shot a week out.  I was hoping we could hold another one off til the end of the month.

[Tom]

The Euro has traded in its mild to warm zonal flow through ten days for another big cold shot a week out.  I was hoping we could hold another one off til the end of the month.

Ya, was kinda getting excited to see a nice stretch of warmth.  Seems like we are in for another serious punch of cold.  Now the farmer's really have to think about harvesting their crop.

[Geos]

Ya, was kinda getting excited to see a nice stretch of warmth.  Seems like we are in for another serious punch of cold.  Now the farmer's really have to think about harvesting their crop.

 

Yeah exactly! 

 

I think an area wide frost is coming before October 1st.

 

Crumby afternoon up this way now. Mid 50s, low ceilings and misty rain.

[Tom]

18z GFS now bringing in the trough into the region like the 12z Euro.  It's interesting watching the models correct themselves and bring back the troughs farther west.  This is exactly what they did last year in the Fall/Winter months.  The GFS was notorious for skirting the troughs out to fast and farther east in the mid/long range, then correct west.  That intense shot showing up on the GFS a few days later will prob correct farther west as well.  We shall see.

[The Snowman]

18z GFS now bringing in the trough into the region like the 12z Euro.  It's interesting watching the models correct themselves and bring back the troughs farther west.  This is exactly what they did last year in the Fall/Winter months.  The GFS was notorious for skirting the troughs out to fast and farther east in the mid/long range, then correct west.  That intense shot showing up on the GFS a few days later will prob correct farther west as well.  We shall see.

Could be a case of model bias showing through, as guidance tends to be too progressive with the pattern in the medium/long range. As you said, similar situation happened last winter, especially WRT storm systems.

[Tom]

For the last couple days, models have been catching onto the idea of a re-curving Typhoon near Japan around the 21st.  This could correlate to a deeper and stronger trough as we close out September and head into October.

[Niko]

Interesting to see Baja, California in a Hurricane Warning for a Cat3 in their neck of the woods. Too bad this hurricane is not heading north into San Diego and even more north possibly where they desperately need the rain, instead its making a right turn for the deserts where they got plenty of rain last time.

[Tom]

Interesting to see Baja, California in a Hurricane Warning for a Cat3 in their neck of the woods. Too bad this hurricane is not heading north into San Diego and even more north possibly where they desperately need the rain, instead its making a right turn for the deserts where they got plenty of rain last time.

My sister is supposed to fly down there next Wednesday for her friends Bachelorette party.  With the airport heavily damaged and Cabo taking a direct hit with Cat 3 125 mph winds, I think they are going to re-schedule their trips.  It's going to take weeks to clean up that mess down there.

 

On the other hand, the desert SW is going to eat away at their drought BUT with repercussions.  Flooding is going to be a HUGE concern for them.

[East Dubzz]

6 AM practice was awfully chilly this morning.

[Tom]

Some brisk mornings this week, but you can't complain to have 100% sunshine, light winds and tranquil weather.  Gorgeous remainder of the week ahead.

[Geos]

Little chilly today actually. The wind off the lake is keeping temperatures from rising past the low 60s near the lake.

 

The amount of moisture forecasted for the Baja over to Tucson is incredible. Looks at this map!

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Little chilly today actually. The wind off the lake is keeping temperatures from rising past the low 60s near the lake.

 

The amount of moisture forecasted for the Baja over to Tucson is incredible. Looks at this map!

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1410875528

It is amazing how much rain some of the desert regions have received so far this summer!

[Tom]

00z GFS may be onto that possible major cold shot towards the end of the month.  East Asian Theory may come into play if that Typhoon re-curves around Japan.

[Geos]

7th straight day of below normal temps. High of 68° today here.

 

Departures region-wide so far this month.

 

[Niko]

Really looking forward at the warm weather this weekend. I might be topping 80 degrees. .Thats gonna feel real good. It gets cooler by Sunday and then, much cooler by early next week.

Color on trees is increasing day by day. Mild days and chilly nights really help do the job.

[james1976]

GFS is looking mild the rest of the month around these parts.

[james1976]

12z GFS holding strong with a warm next 2 weeks.

[Geos]

CPC agrees with warmth, but concentrated further west.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The new Euro looks fantastic for the rest of the month as well.  I'm glad the next cool shot is looking pretty tame.  This means the garden should thrive for a couple more weeks.