bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Time to make this official. We've been tracking a possible storm for a week now and it's finally coming into view. Lots of discrepancies still to iron out. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 EPS Control Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Didn't know this existed, but just for kicks, here's the Korean model. Ha ha. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 WPC outlook 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 GRR downplaying any impacts from this storm for the time being from their AFD. WayYYYY too much spread from the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 DVN says it's just too warm for snow. 1.Probabilities of a storm system impacting our entire area have increased for Friday through Saturday night. 2. There is not expected to be cold air in place sufficient for this potential system to be all snow, and forecasting any amounts will be very challenging with this system. Quiet weather Wednesday night and Thursday will begin with quiet weather as zonal flow temporarily is found over the Midwest. That flow will bring a second day of lower to mid 50 degree temperatures, before a cold front arrives Thursday night. That front will stall to our southeast Friday, and all guidance brings a significant upper trof out of the four corners area, to the northeast into the Midwest. This is a rather high probability for us to see impacts from the storm which would be triggered by this upper wave`s ejection into the Midwest. An moisture rich warm sector is forecast ahead of that wave, the upcoming storm should have ample moisture to produce rain and snow. While there are models showing a significant snow event with that storm in our area, there are some things that bring doubt to that scenario. First and foremost, there does not appear to be very cold or Arctic air in place ahead of the system, arriving with the cold front Thursday night. That air is quite marginal, and therefore, the warm moist advection Friday afternoon will likely fall as rain over the area, before dynamic cooling potentially changes things over Friday night into Saturday. Even on Saturday, it appears significant cold air will not be wrapping into the low circulation until Saturday evening, at which time, the main moisture plume is forecast to be shifting east of the area. Some light snow may linger through Saturday night into Sunday as the main upper trof sweeps overhead, but that would be of low travel impact. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Not sure I'm really buying DVNs explanation on temps. Temps are plenty cold enough for snow at the 850 and 925mb level. They hover around freezing at the surface, but if snowfall rates are high enough, it won't be a problem to accumulate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 DVN with a "we don't know what's going to happen" update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 12z JMA...looks juiced and a southerly track... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 DMX siding with the Euro: Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with regard to the weekend system. Though precipitation types look fair straightforward, the trend in the deterministic and to a lesser extend, ensemble guidance is taking the track of the storm farther south as the southern stream and northern stream are now trending toward less phasing near our area. Of the two deterministic models today, the GFS is more progressive and less amplified while the 12z Euro does deepen and slow down the southern stream wave long enough to develop a deformation zone back into eastern/southeast Iowa Saturday afternoon and evening. Given the time frame is still between 90 and 114 hours for the main system, there is likely to be some modification yet to the forecast due to the lack of agreement. The preferred solution is the Euro with it`s slightly slower progression but much depends on the amount of cold air advection expected to drop into the system later on Friday. This will continue to lessen confidence until some of those details are ironed out. For now, our messaging will shift the threat of heavier precipitation and potential snowfall into our east/southeast and continue to revisit new data/model runs with time for a more detailed forecast regarding snowfall amounts and timing. Warm air advection and moisture return is expected late Thursday night into Friday morning when the first batch of rain/snow moves into the south/southeast. After highs in the 40s/50s Thursday, cooler afternoon readings return Friday in the lower 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Rain/rain snow is expected during Friday. As the main system tracks north northeast Saturday into Saturday evening across Central Missouri into Central Illinois, colder air should continue mainly snow in the region through the end of the event. Winds increasing on the back side of the storm may cause some limited blowing snow, though afternoon highs near the freezing mark will mitigate much impact. The remainder of the forecast from Sunday through Tuesday will be generally dry with only a weak system tracking just south of the state. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 18z Icon about same a GFS, a little juicer but overall warmer, more rain than snow to start which would definitely limit accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 OAX is on board and nice to see the UKIE in our favor but no GFS makes me nervous. Plus I don't like how far out this storm is still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 18z GFS still pretty worthless. Slightly better than 12z and not bad for a small section of Northern Illinois, far SE WI and into W MI but that's about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Looked like it was a tad north of 12z. At least it didn't go more east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Rainer for most of us Michiganders in this forum. Oh well. Need more cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 18z ICON nudged north with a bit more of an actual system, but I wouldn't bet 2 cents on that model. NAM is so far south at the end of the run that Clinton is even riding the northern edge. EPS is the main thing giving me hope, it would be a pretty embarassing flop for a 6-7" day 4 mean to not even be close. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: 18z ICON nudged north with a bit more of an actual system, but I wouldn't bet 2 cents on that model. NAM is so far south at the end of the run that Clinton is even riding the northern edge. EPS is the main thing giving me hope, it would be a pretty embarassing flop for a 6-7" day 4 mean to not even be close. Yeah, the EPS mean is also what I'm hoping turns out to be more correct. The UKIE is also great for your area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 18z Canadian, stops at 84 hours so it's just getting going at this time, but here is the snowfall up until then. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Stacsh said: GRR downplaying any impacts from this storm for the time being from their AFD. WayYYYY too much spread from the models. Not surprising really. When was the last time a storm 4 or 5 days out was a slam dunk? As usual, the key players are still over the PAC ocean. Not to mention it's technically Met winter, but we will be going into this from yet another warm spell. Whatever happened to getting a cold spell, followed by a storm? Like that doesn't happen anymore. Still, it's early enough to not throw the towel, certainly up there if not down here. Their write-up was actually decent I thought, but there's always ENS members N or S of the mean at this range - duh. Going to be a long week watching this bounce around 5 different ways from Sunday Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: 12z JMA...looks juiced and a southerly track... I like it's robust look, just not tracking on top my head again. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18z Euro doesn’t look great through 90 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 12Z Euro through 96 HR -- 18Z Euro though 90Hrs- baby steps N 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Yikes. Euro is ugly. Hopefully this is a 6/18z bad run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM! NAM! NAM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Wowza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM 2 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM will be along the US/CAN border tomorrow night if it shifts that far N each run.... 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Good lord. Starts snowing at Hr 66 in Lincoln and still snowing at the end of the run with 8.9". 18z NAM literally had literally nothing within a 200 mile radius. NAM is infamous for outrageous totals, but nice to see the change. 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM My area does well. Interesting. NWS Disco hinting at some potential, but much uncertainty. NWS Hastings: Think the brunt of impacts would come Fri eve into Sat AM, IF the EC verifies, in which at least lgt accums would be possible, along with moderate N/NE wind gusts 25-30mph. Think the raw snow output from EC is overdone given long duration of mainly lgt to mod rates, though there`s certainly some hint of banding potential. Appears that areas along and esp S of I-80 have greatest accum potential attm. Think the best course of action for messaging is to maintain wording in HWO from last night`s shift and begin to increase awareness in upcoming social media posts, but mention the high uncertainty. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 39 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM Nothing like riding the 1" or 2" line on the southern edge of a snow swath for what seems like forever (actually, I just checked and the last time it wasn't like this was Feb of 2018, so yeah almost 3 freaking yrs aside from last November's oddity on Vet's Day) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Within range of the SREF - though like most models at this range - trust in it is sketchy at best. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM's also picking up on the urban heat island known as Chicagoland. Not a good look for Tom's place. Unfortunately, with lake temps still quite warm and the air mass only marginal it may be an accurate portrayal. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS further N in IA- but sad that it's come to tracking such a paltry event.. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS does come further north, but then quickly shears apart and heads east quickly. Not much to look at here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 There just isn't any precip to the NW of the low in the cold sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Nothing burger....50mi wide band of 3-6" maybe with temps around 34. Please being back the days of a nice big trowel over all of Ia and Wi and it was just a matter of how much and not if. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Canadian remains consistent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 The Kuchera output for the Canadian ~20% lower than 10:1, which makes sense given the marginal temps. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Ukie is farther north than GFS/GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.