Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 UKie - decent shift S and E from 12Z 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 It was guaranteed that the UK would be weaker than its 12z run. The new run is much closer to other models. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 other than totals which obviously will be off - UKIE and CMC are quite similar in placement of snows... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Euro is north this run, especially for ne folks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Northern Chicago suburbs still blasted btw lol Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 00z Euro still showing promise for a good chance of seeing a plowable snowfall here. I'm just worried thermals will be an issue the closer you are to the lake. Not a lot of cold air around with this set up. Crazy moisture being spit out this run...can you imagine if we had temps in the upper 20's??? Can't ask for a better set up if ONLY temps were colder. You take what you can get as this thing is not set in stone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 00z EPS and Control... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 WPC- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 06z GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 N shift on GFS - with more coverage. Concern here is N shift holding and continuing N to even NW. I think the later. This system moved too much S from previous guidance 3-4 days ago. A shift N- to NW is expected. Twin Cities are not out. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 DVN giving me hope for at least something.. Northern stream energy will be onshore Thursday night and its strength and evolution with lead southern stream trof will help determine how strong our Friday-Saturday system will be. Both the 00z NAM/00z ECMWF show a negative tilt wave developing which results in a stronger and slower dynamic system and in contrast the 00z GFS/GEM show more a neutral tilt to this incoming system, which would be somewhat weaker and faster moving. Surface low track has come into slightly better agreement with 00z runs and their ensembles, with a consensus track from SGF at 00z Sat, to STL, to northern IN by 18z Sat. This normally would favor the local area receiving heavy snowfall. However, the complicating factor with this system as mentioned in previous discussion is that we will have no cold arctic air in place. We will have to depend on strong dynamics and high snowfall rates to get snow to accumulate on warm ground/pavement. This is still a possibility, but confidence still remains low. QPF/Snowfall... Model PWs will be rising above 0.75" which is 2-3 standard deviations from the climatological mean per NAEFS output. Strong lift ahead of the wave will result in rainfall totals over a half inch by Saturday, especially in our southeast half of CWA. Lighter amounts are expected further north and west. NBM weather type progs have been trending further south with the rain/snow line late Friday night, with most areas north of a Fairfield to Quad Cities line seeing a changeover to all snow early Saturday. Latest 00z NAM and WPC internal snowfall guidance would suggest a def zone snowfall region and potential accumulating snow to set up somewhere over south central IA through the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City metro, to Freeport,IL on Saturday, with little to no accumulating snow south and east of this line. Any deviation or change in low track in later forecasts will shift this snowfall area. Wide range of possible snow totals still exist and will be further addressed in later forecasts. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, dubuque473 said: DVN giving me hope for at least something.. Northern stream energy will be onshore Thursday night and its strength and evolution with lead southern stream trof will help determine how strong our Friday-Saturday system will be. Both the 00z NAM/00z ECMWF show a negative tilt wave developing which results in a stronger and slower dynamic system and in contrast the 00z GFS/GEM show more a neutral tilt to this incoming system, which would be somewhat weaker and faster moving. Surface low track has come into slightly better agreement with 00z runs and their ensembles, with a consensus track from SGF at 00z Sat, to STL, to northern IN by 18z Sat. This normally would favor the local area receiving heavy snowfall. However, the complicating factor with this system as mentioned in previous discussion is that we will have no cold arctic air in place. We will have to depend on strong dynamics and high snowfall rates to get snow to accumulate on warm ground/pavement. This is still a possibility, but confidence still remains low. QPF/Snowfall... Model PWs will be rising above 0.75" which is 2-3 standard deviations from the climatological mean per NAEFS output. Strong lift ahead of the wave will result in rainfall totals over a half inch by Saturday, especially in our southeast half of CWA. Lighter amounts are expected further north and west. NBM weather type progs have been trending further south with the rain/snow line late Friday night, with most areas north of a Fairfield to Quad Cities line seeing a changeover to all snow early Saturday. Latest 00z NAM and WPC internal snowfall guidance would suggest a def zone snowfall region and potential accumulating snow to set up somewhere over south central IA through the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City metro, to Freeport,IL on Saturday, with little to no accumulating snow south and east of this line. Any deviation or change in low track in later forecasts will shift this snowfall area. Wide range of possible snow totals still exist and will be further addressed in later forecasts. Dmx talking several inches C and S IA. ( Potentially) Thursday. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ Issued at 410 AM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 Attention then shifts to the evolution of the weekend system as it opens and lifts northeast into the Midwest. 00z deterministic model output has shifted the storm track slightly to the NW compared to runs 24 hours ago now putting the best band of snow across generally the southern half of IA. Additionally, less variability was noted amongst model solutions which has added to confidence in the Friday-Friday night period. Open-wave reaches the central plains around midday Friday, with initial moisture surge arriving into southern IA at around the same time. Have continued following the NBM trend boosting precipitation chances into likely category across the south. Precip type on Friday will be tricky and depend on the amount of cold air in place along w/ wet-bulbing if rates are sufficient. For now, have kept the hedged forecast on Friday, maintaining -SN OR -RA. Cold air will certainly be sufficient for snow accumulations mainly for Friday night and Saturday morning, before the system departs Saturday afternoon. Too early to get detailed on amounts, but some areas across central and southern IA have the potential for several inches of snow from this system. Storm track and amounts will continue to be refined over the next few days, so those w/ travel interests late Friday into Saturday morning will certainly want to monitor future forecast updates. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 The 6z RGEM is like a dream come true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Local ABC meteorologist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Ill be in St Paul so of course my backyard will get blasted. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Off with a back injury so kind of expect a lot. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 6z Euro looking even better 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 OAX is only going 1-3 for the area and the metro thinking 0-1 inches. Hmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 06z Euro...nail biter around these parts...5-10 miles is going to make a big difference I think...sorta reminds me of the Nov '15 snowstorm that rocked the NW burbs while the city got zilch... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Come to think of it, this storm is actually trending towards more of a "share the wealth" TX Panhandle cutter....we usually don't see much snow up into NE/ from these type of storms so consider this a win if it does happen. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Another cold December rain for SMI. This is getting old. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 The majority of the snow in Iowa from I80 on north comes Friday night. There are two waves with this. The first wave comes through Friday with rain changing to snow and then looks pretty heavy at times, then a bit of a lull before the 2nd wave comes in Saturday morning. That one hits southern Iowa harder and then into Illinois, which is why you are seeing the heavy totals in Northern Illinois and Southern WI. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 It's looking ok for Iowa, but models generally show the best moisture/dynamics/cold air coming together a bit farther east. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: The majority of the snow in Iowa from I80 on north comes Friday night. There are two waves with this. The first wave comes through Friday with rain changing to snow and then looks pretty heavy at times, then a bit of a lull before the 2nd wave comes in Saturday morning. That one hits southern Iowa harder and then into Illinois, which is why you are seeing the heavy totals in Northern Illinois and Southern WI. This could be a trend towards a more robust second wave which was one of the features in the LRC pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 I meant to reference, that is what the 6z Euro showed. For my backyard it could come down to how quickly the rain transitions to snow and then how long does it take to accumulate. It will require some heavy rates early on to get the accumulation going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 6z Canadian http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_06/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z NAM is running and out to 54 hours. Looks very similar to 6z at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, Tom said: This could be a trend towards a more robust second wave which was one of the features in the LRC pattern. It wouldn't take much this first wave is weak, warm, and +tilted. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM going way north with the 2nd wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 I have to think the NAM is too amped. It cuts the surface low almost due north at the end, which seems unlikely. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Yeah, I haven't seen a solution bringing several inches all the way into SE Minnesota like this. I like the strength of the storm here, but hopefully it doesn't go this far north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Maybe a bit too north, but I gotta believe the lack of cold air, the lack of snow cover and still somewhat early in winter makes this thing end up farther north than what everything was showing yesterday. Who knows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 It will since I won't be home Don't be mad at me though lol... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z RGEM 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, Madtown said: Maybe a bit too north, but I gotta believe the lack of cold air, the lack of snow cover and still somewhat early in winter makes this thing end up farther north than what everything was showing yesterday. Who knows. It may come down to how much cold, dry air tries pushing in from the NW. Models the last few days had really been hitting the dry air hard, thus forcing the storm south. Now they seem to be backing off. While I don't think it's coming all the way back up this way, it's safe to assume there are more changes coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z RGEM Nice weird bullseye on the RGEM right in my backyard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Milwaukee slammer on the 12z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS going more amped. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS would have it snowing through the Iowa - Wisconsin game Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.