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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


bud2380

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I would like to see the storm amp up earlier so Iowa can get into the heavier snow.  Models are split on this.  The GFS doesn't really get going until farther east.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Canadian a little warmer this run with wave 1 and brings a lot of rain to CR and IC.  Then the secondary wave is further north than the GFS and brings some decent snows to eastern Iowa.  Further north fairs better since they stay snow the whole event.

 

gem_asnow_ncus_14.png

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Canadian snow map is very different than the GFS.  The two are only off by 12+ inches over southeast WI.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like KC will see some rain(not much) and maybe a few wet snowflakes Saturday.(We really need moisture(moderate drought here) The data never shows us getting below 33-34 degrees while the precipitation is here. Even in the snow areas, temps look just cold enough. Likely a really wet snow for the ones that get it. 

For the ones that get the snow, enjoy it, as the GFS goes back to a flame thrower across the country in the mid range. No deep cold anywhere to be found. Hopefully that changes soon. 

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

00z EPS and Control...

1.png

 

 

 

3.png

 

2.png

Crazy to see the Euro Op run so far removed from it's own Ensemble Mean. The Ens map seems in line with other models leaving the Op on it's own island. I see 6z finally fell in line with others but wow it was way off for several runs with the S track tease.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Another cold December rain for SMI.  This is getting old.  

Don't forget the part where we wait another 50 days for our next chance hoping it's actually cold enough then. We aren't getting a "winter" this year. Maybe a random storm in April when we don't want one, but not a winter. If it does get cold, track will prolly move over to the EC or such.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Loving the UKIE.  Man that would be about as good as I can hope for with this storm.  I'm guessing the NWS will wait until at least tomorrow morning to post any headlines.  Even though model consensus is tightening there is enough variance yet to be cautious. 

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Factoring in marginal thermals, rather warm ground for mid-Dec and mixing issues , looks to me like WWA and 1-3 to perhaps 2-4 for most reading

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The Euro is more amped like other models, but just tracks a bit farther south.

The Euro is also faster than the UK.  The UK has the heaviest snow here after 6am Saturday, while the Euro has it done by 6am.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Starting to like the chance of a 2-4" event for SE Neb. I'm a little concerned about temps, Euro is 31 most of the storm, NAM/GFS hang around 32. Should be fine, but I would be annoyed by a 33 degree heavy snow that barely accumulates.  

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Using 10:1 here is what today's models show for my neck of the woods:

Euro:

Cedar Rapids - 4.5"

Iowa City - 6.0"

GFS:

Cedar Rapids - 5.6"

Iowa City - 6.0"

UKMET:

Cedar Rapids - 9.3"

Iowa City - 7.2"

Canadian:

Cedar Rapids - 5.8"

Iowa City - 4.0"

NAM:

Cedar Rapids - 7.6"

Iowa City - 7.5"

RGEM:

Cedar Rapids - 9.0"

Iowa City - 12.0"

That averages out to right around 7" for both locations. 

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10 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Starting to like the chance of a 2-4" event for SE Neb. I'm a little concerned about temps, Euro is 31 most of the storm, NAM/GFS hang around 32. Should be fine, but I would be annoyed by a 33 degree heavy snow that barely accumulates.  

Remember temp is measured at 2M. Some of the heaviest snow I seen accumulate here in IA was with 2M temp of 33F in Feb. That was with a cold ground though. Still, as long as surface temps are 32 or lower, that's all that matters. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3-5/4-6 is probably a good guess in the max band in E IA right now. Expecting melting and compaction to play a decent role. Temps are actually rather cold aloft with little/no WAA nose present, so ratios may be decent(ie closer to 10:1). Especially with defo zone lift.

 

ecmwf_full_2020120912_072_41.75--91.75.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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