bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see winter storm watches. 1) first snowstorm of the year. 2) many models are showing the possibility of 6” or more. I could see a lot of areas go with a winter weather advisory in the end and perhaps a small zone of winter storm warnings where 6”+ is more likely. Well see. Depends what the Euro shows before I’d make that call. They could easily hold off until tomorrow afternoon as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 If the nam scores the win on this one I’ll be ecstatic. My main concern is how well are the models picking up on dry air? We have been extremely dry obviously with the drought going on; I’m wondering if saturation will be a problem? I’ll take the euro too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 RDPS= 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 iCON- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 DVN has me at 3-6” now... Friday Night A chance of rain before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. 3 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS stepping backwards again Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS still garbage. It had one good run at 12z. It’s just overall very week and doesn’t show that strong defo band that the other models are showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Crush job on the GFS. DVN needs to get headlines out ASAP 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Zero snow in Cedar Rapids on the GFS. It appears the GFS is just shooting the second wave of energy east of Iowa before it tries to turn north and wrap up. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Chicago is actually the one place that does well onto the euro... Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 The scary thing on the GFS is it's not just "one" run. Back to back and trending towards a non-event. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: The scary thing on the GFS is it's not just "one" run. Back to back and trending towards a non-event. I can't remember but I'm pretty sure there's been at least one storm in the past couple of years where it was the world vs. GFS and GFS won for a change. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: The scary thing on the GFS is it's not just "one" run. Back to back and trending towards a non-event. It does have a progressive bias. And it is certainly the most progressive member of the suite and has been. I wouldn't discount it by any means, just something to keep in mind. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 me waiting for it to come south about 30 -60 miles and disappoint everyone except me 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Maybe gfs is on to something we shall see! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Early HRRR 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS up here early in the year October/ November had way too high of totals compared to all the other models. The October 22 time frame sticks out in my head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 CMC still has it Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Canadian does not disappoint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 GDPS 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 GEFS slightly weaker, but not as bleak as the OP. Members are still kind of all over the place considering how close the storm is. Prior EPS runs not any more consistent. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 CMC smoke job for many but that’s a pipe dream Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ukie appears to be cutting back also- and seems a little warmer for thermals but tough to tell for sure until 850 is out. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Y’all think the Omadome is bad, I promise you the Chicago dome is way worse. Even if this thing shifted south for us it wouldn’t stick here in the city anyways. Blows my mind how we get accumulating snow at all sometimes. Anyways, I’m rooting for all of you! I think a lot of you will get decent snow from this :)) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: Zero snow in Cedar Rapids on the GFS. It appears the GFS is just shooting the second wave of energy east of Iowa before it tries to turn north and wrap up. Sounds like the JMA Tom posted earlier Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 UK with a decent shift E on QPF- 12- 00Z - Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ukie is also warmer in E IA at 2meter- and 850mb - especaily E.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Dubuque went from 13" on 12Z Ukie to now 3"-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 The UK tonight is doing the exact same thing the GFS is. The second wave tracks well east of the 12z run before turning north and wrapping up, so it basically skips Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS almost getting this back to a RN->SN event first discussed days ago. Too bad for all us, it's just marginal cold *again Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The UK tonight is doing the exact same thing the GFS is. The second wave tracks well east of the 12z run before turning north and wrapping up, so it basically skips Iowa. Yep- expect the Euro to follow suite. This never was WSW material in my book and the way things are going even WWA may be a stretch.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: UK with a decent shift E on QPF- 12- 00Z - Oh my, if only this was all snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Jaycee said: Oh my, if only this was all snow Ikr? Would be GHD-1 deja-vu storm for Chicago-land. Third year in a row we've gotten great storms at the very front end of winter and none during.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ukie with some nice winds coming down Lk. Michigan at h72 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Well euro not caving, even stronger if anything 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 hours ago, whatitdo said: bro. im tellin you im a snow repeller. force field activated Haha. Nah, you're ok, it's just the pattern we're dealt attm. IF you really were tho, I'd tell you to take a hike up to FAR_wx's place and camp there, lol. Anyhow, while we may still get screwed on the synoptic stuff due to a track over our heads, tonight's runs are more favorable than the last 24 hrs. The UKmet's option, while not January grade cold, it may be enough to get SWMI back into the LES option mentioned by GRR prior to everything shifting north. Here's the 850's off the Ukie: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Well euro not caving, even stronger if anything It was slow to bounce N yesterday, it may be trailing the pack this time as well. Let's see.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euro 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.