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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


bud2380

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Even tho nothing's in the bag yet, I have to say it's been nice to have some action in our sub to follow, whether I score a single flake or not. Good test of what to expect from the models for a more typical system. Still feel Euro's way overdone, and hopefully the GFS is underdone for those expecting a nice hit. Good luck to those in this game.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR's pm AFD mentions some nice pro's and con's

Quote

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020

-- Winter Storm potential this weekend across Central Lower MI --

We have opted to issue a Winter Storm Watch for our northern two
rows of counties across Central Lower Michigan. The watch will
roughly be in place from Whitehall to Mt. Pleasant northward.
Muskegon County is not in the watch at this time however. The
watch will stretch from Friday evening at 700pm through Saturday
evening at 1000pm.

This system, as is the case with most systems have both some
negative and positive aspects to it. Starting with the positive,
the shortwave looks healthy in water vapor imagery this afternoon
in Arizona. This wave actually does phase a bit Friday into Friday
night with energy currently working into the Pacific Northwest. As
the wave approaches the Great Lakes it does take on a negative
tilt which will enhance deeper lift a bit. There is a coupled jet
structure in place across Lower Michigan on Saturday which will
also aid in deep layer lift. PWAT values will be above the 90th
percentile for this time of year so it will have a good feed of
moisture. The track of the low is solid for heavier snows across
Central Lower MI.

As for the negative, dendritic growth zones with this system will
be quite high based up around 15,000ft and will be somewhat
shallow. Often times when this occurs, flake size is small and its
harder to pile up amounts. There may be a bit of a mix that tries
to occur at times on the south edge of the snow that could limit
snow amounts just a tad. Also, the isentropic lift on Saturday is
surprisingly not all that strong. Wind is directly up the
isentropic surfaces but just on the weak side leading to weaker
lift. Snow to liquid ratios will likely be less than what many
will look at off of popular websites (which are usually either
10:1 or are enhanced due to vertical motion). These snowfall
totals will be too high given the wet nature of the snow. Snow
ratios will be more on the order of 5 to 9 to 1. So we are
expecting a swath of 4-7 or 5-8 inches of heavy wet snow.

Other items of note... the precipitation will come in waves, with
lulls in the snow across Central Lower MI. There will be a burst
of snow Friday evening after dark up there and again during the
midday and afternoon hours on Saturday. So, expect a lull around
daybreak on Saturday. The watch was issued due to the heavy wet
nature of the snow and the potential for some power outages given
the sticky wet snow and higher winds that will be occurring during
the height of the snow on Saturday. Winds may gust over 30 mph on
Saturday out of the northeast. Another factor is this will be the
first major snow of the season. We have had some lighter amounts
up there already this year, but nothing towards 8 inches and of
this weight.

The heaviest snow will be across our northern row of counties up
along and north of U.S. 10. The highest ground in the forecast
area stretches from Lake County east through Osceola and Clare
Counties. This is where the biggest snow totals will be found. The
next row south will see some heavier snow as well, but it may be
shaded to the northern parts of those counties from Bitely to
Barryton to Loomis. On the southern edge of the snow we will see a
bit of sleet and maybe a touch of freezing rain, but the
temperatures are really marginal (on the warm side) with this
system so it may be mainly rain or snow, without much middle
ground. Not expecting impacts for the little freezing rain or
sleet that tries to occur.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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APX going with 4-8" common, isolated dbl digits. Should make a few stump-jumpers happy campers in the northwoods.

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 703 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Heavy snowfall possible across areas
of northern lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis:

A strong trough positioned over the central U.S. will continue to
progress across the country this weekend. A speed max rounding the
base of the trough is expected to lift from the Plains into the Ohio
Valley by Saturday evening, providing strong divergence aloft to
quickly develop a cyclone along a diffuse/stalling cold front. This
cyclone is expected to track through the southern Great Lakes over
the weekend.

Forecast/Details:

Confidence continues to increase in an impactful snowfall event
across northern lower Michigan this weekend with potentially heavy
snowfall, mainly south and east of M-72/M-65 across our southernmost
counties and along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Snowfall is expected to begin Friday evening/Friday night mostly
south of the M-32 corridor as mid-level warm advection/isentropic
ascent generates precipitation across the area ahead of the
approaching cyclone. An inch or two of snow is expected in this area
with this by Saturday morning. The heaviest snowfall is expected
Saturday afternoon/evening as the system approaches the Great Lakes,
bringing the most favorable warm advection/frontogenetical (FGEN)
forcing into northern lower Michigan. Specifically, the strongest
FGEN forcing is anticipated along the southernmost counties
initially and should eventually pinwheel to orient itself SW-NE
along the Lake Huron shoreline. This feature is of key interest as
this is where the heaviest snowfall will be generated, and thus will
result in the highest expected snowfall totals across the area. Even
though inversion heights are shallow, at least some lake enhancement
with NE low-level winds is expected with the relatively warm waters
of Lake Huron. Even though the majority of the saturated profile
will be -10C or warmer, this combination of forcing could generate
snowfall rates of 1"+ an hour at times. However, snow ratios of less
than 10:1 and a relatively thin layer of the profile collocated
within the DGZ will keep snowfall totals from reaching their full
potential.

Additionally, one area of uncertainty will be temperatures near or
slightly above freezing near the lakeshores. While snow accumulation
is expected, it is difficult to know the degree to which this snow
will melt as it falls into Saturday night. This wet, heavy snow will
certainly create hazardous travel conditions through Saturday night
as temperatures cool overnight, possibly refreezing any partially
melting snow on untreated roads. Gusty winds of 20-30+ mph may
result in blowing snow and rapid drops in visibility, especially
near the lakeshores where winds will be strongest. Drifting on
roadways is possible, but confidence is relatively low given the wet
nature of the snow making it hard to move around after it has
fallen. Power outages cannot be ruled out with the combination of
heavy snow and gusty winds. Overall, an area of 4-8" is expected
along and SE of M-72/M-65 with lessening amounts with NW extent.
Locally heavy amounts in excess of 10" cannot be ruled out for those
that see prolonged heavy banding from FGEN/lake enhanced forcing.
Snowfall is expected to taper off by Sunday late morning/early
afternoon as any light lake effect snow behind the system ends as
low-level moisture is stripped from the area.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, some things never change. Good convos on here and the ups and downs of each model run every 6 hours. Glad to see this place is still hopping.  And glad to have winter finally here with a nice storm to track. The 6z HRRR is nice to look at for here. Certainly someone will get 6"+ out of this system. Most likely in Wisconsin but not out of the realm of possibility here around Des Moines.  Bring on the snow!!

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It appears that we are going to see our Sub's first "share the wealth" winter storm.  It's really to bad the cold air is lacking but you have to take the good with the bad.  The Good = Moisture...The Bad = Warm Temps = Less Snowfall...😞

00z Euro...I'll take 2" and creep towards normal snowfall for the season...Good Luck to all of those out west and north of here...this is just the beginning of real winter and plenty of more chances down the road.  I got a good feeling about what the future holds.  This system is just a testament that we will have periods of wet storm systems and this one certainly is loaded with moisture.

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00z Euro Control...

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00z EPS...

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
357 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020

Forecast challenge centers on precip type, timing/location of
rain to snow change-over, and resultant snowfall amounts as system
moves through today thru Saturday. Early morning satellite pix
depict well-defined shortwave spinning across Nebraska, with
attendent sfc low observed lifting towards MO. Also evident is the
nose of upstream jet streak lifting into ern Nebraska. KDMX 88D
has been returning echoes for the past few hours, though have yet
to see any obs of precip reaching the sfc. This will change this
morning, as precip expands owing to increasing moisture combined
with the approach of leading jet streak. Temps are in the 30s
across the state (low 30s north...upper 30s south) currently.
Expect very little change today. Thermal profile progs suggest
mostly rain today for srn and central areas, with a rain/snow mix
in north-central. There does remain some uncertainty if/how much
snow is able to mix in within the heavier areas of today`s precip.
Even if an earlier change-over were able to occur, would expect
any accumulations to be confined to grassy surfaces given temps in
the 30s.

This changes tonight as the upper wave and associated deformation
axis lifts thru the CWA. Meanwhile temps will be cooling from
north to south, with daytime insolation no longer providing
melting assistance. So expect a change-over to snow by late
afternoon, continuing through the evening hours. Heaviest snowfall
rates are still expected 03-15z Saturday timeframe (pockets of
0.5-0.75"/hour rates per 00z HREF). Latest model guidance
continues to settle on position of heaviest snow axis, which has
shown good run-to-run agreement, adding to forecast confidence.
Only very minor refinement adjustments needed there. Short-range
deterministic models have trended snow amounts upward a tad, which
has trended National Blended Model a similar direction in kind.
These are likely inflated some by counting today snow, much of
which will impacted some by melting. GEFS/ECMWF ensemble data have
been very steady in values with good grouping solidly in the
advisory range. As a result, have trended amounts upward by around
an inch, generally advertising 3-6" within SW-NE axis. There is
potential for locally higher amounts, however think this is a low
probability of occurrence at the moment. Snow lingers into
Saturday morning, before system gradually departs dissipating snow
from west to east during the day. Only change to the inherited
advisory was to extend it north a county due to slightly higher
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

likely 3-6". Take this any day in DEC, especially this DEC.

Are you believing in the pattern starting to look more productive in the snow dept???  I'm actually very glad your getting hit by this storm.  Maybe your pessimism about this month was a reminder that nature had something else planned...🌨️👊 

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6z HRRR shows improved totals for Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Many models are showing a decrease in snowfall in the small corridor along I380 with heavier totals to the east and west. Seems odd, so I’m hopeful the HRRR has the right idea here. Euro remains steady with 5-6”. I’m riding it all the way. 

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The 09z RAP supports the 6z HRRR. There seems to be pockets of heavier snow showing upon many models. Where those actually occur is anybodies guess. The biggest thing I’m curious to see tonight is how far south the rain/snow line gets and for those areas that see mostly snow tonight, can they over perform the models? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dubuque pick up 3-4” tonight before another 2-4” with the deformation band. Just a gut feeling. 

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40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Are you believing in the pattern starting to look more productive in the snow dept???  I'm actually very glad your getting hit by this storm.  Maybe your pessimism about this month was a reminder that nature had something else planned...🌨️👊 

It's one storm.(that still is in the mix)   After back to back +20F means for daily avg. Rather little of the forum is seeing this event. My pessimism is still their being this is still a random event. Glad my area is seeing what it sees, but I don' t believe this event will change the overall pattern, as it looks quite quiet for some time. A broken clock is right twice a day. Until others wide range see this, still have my doubts. But- yes, glad for this event, but it seems the events are 2-3 weeks apart with much above normal in-between.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

The 09z RAP supports the 6z HRRR. There seems to be pockets of heavier snow showing upon many models. Where those actually occur is anybodies guess. The biggest thing I’m curious to see tonight is how far south the rain/snow line gets and for those areas that see mostly snow tonight, can they over perform the models? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dubuque pick up 3-4” tonight before another 2-4” with the deformation band. Just a gut feeling. 

From your mouth..

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

It's one storm.(that still is in the mix)   After back to back +20F means for daily avg. Rather little of the forum is seeing this event. My pessimism is still their being this is still a random event. Glad my area is seeing what it sees, but I don' t believe this event will change the overall pattern, as it looks quite quiet for some time. A broken clock is right twice a day. Until others wide range see this, still have my doubts. But- yes, glad for this event, but it seems the events are 2-3 weeks apart with much above normal in-between.

The pattern isn’t changing.  All of this melts by Christmas anyway.   

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4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The pattern isn’t changing.  All of this melts by Christmas anyway.   

Yeah. But it will last at least a week.  Festive Miracle early and this was not seen 7 days ago, so , yes it can change for all 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The pattern isn’t changing.  All of this melts by Christmas anyway.   

We're already losing the split flow after this storm which is step one. Cold air is building in Canada which is step two. Step three is getting the necessary blocking in place to bring that cold air down here, which may take a while.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

We're already losing the split flow after this storm which is step one. Cold air is building in Canada which is step two. Step three is getting the necessary blocking in place to bring that cold air down here, which may take a while.

 

That's pretty much what I meant...after a very dull and boring period, action is picking up across the board (except the north) and the split flow is falling apart.  Now, the other pieces to the puzzle are showing signs of lining up.  It's not the abrupt pattern change but it is definitely changing for the better.

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@CentralNEBweather

 

Must be beautiful up there this morning. I wish I was there. I just pulled up radar from there and it looks like a nice stationary band of moderate snow. ENJOY!! 

 

Going to be a wet snow for most as temps are right around freezing for all. At least its snowing!! 

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11 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@CentralNEBweather

 

Must be beautiful up there this morning. I wish I was there. I just pulled up radar from there and it looks like a nice stationary band of moderate snow. ENJOY!! 

 

Going to be a wet snow for most as temps are right around freezing for all. At least its snowing!! 

Yes it is.  Band is just sitting over me.  I think NWS Hastings should have had the entire area in a WWA as now I'm hearing of traffic accidents on highway 6.  Our school just sent out a message about slick streets and roads and telling parents/students not to be concerned if your late.  I think we probably should have had a late start.  My amounts might overperform.  Just looking out my classroom window, we might be pushing 2" or very close to that.

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1 minute ago, FarmerRick said:

Nam is pretty juicy just NW of Omaha...

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

I'm loving it! Happy snow friday to all! The models really are picking up on some heavy banding possibly and a lot of them have that heavy band coming right through my area. nam has it so does the snow forecast by the NWS. Good luck to all, hopefully this shares the wealth and is a sign of things to come. 

StormTotalSnowWeb_Nebraska.png

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