bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 NAM upping totals for CR and IC. Double what the 6z run showed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 7" for me on the NAM haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Reading local Twitter reports of many cars in ditches in the Kearney, Minden, Holdrege area. No reports of injuries, but I can attest how slick it was at 7 AM this morning, and it doesn't look like has improved yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 3k NAM - Iowa City in a bit of a tough spot. It looks like not much snow even in CR til after midnight. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 46 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM upping totals for CR and IC. Double what the 6z run showed. Cut this total in half and I get 3”. Lock it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z HRRR 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 I wonder if the NWS heard my complaints. I've just been added to the WWA for 2-4" or more. I wondered last night why they only had eastern counties in the area covered by the advisory. Overnight they added a few more counties, now a few more. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: We have a game in Giltner tonight; that might be a problem! I always take a van and bring my varsity later but might not want to risk it if the roads are that bad out there already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, gabel23 said: We have a game in Giltner tonight; that might be a problem! I always take a van and bring my varsity later but might not want to risk it if the roads are that bad out there already! You may want to think twice about traveling unless things warm up a little. Not looking good for basketball games tonight. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z HRRR yet another model showing a thin slice of 6-8" of snow for my area. Crazy to see that all models are showing a sliver of heavy snow coming right through my area! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 RDPS - Probably a bit inflated, but another model with a sharp drop-off from CR to IC. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 48 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z HRRR That’s one heck of a dry slot right along the Mississippi IMBY! More like a dry wall the way that looks! That would be quite something to see manifest haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Even as the storm begins, the GFS won't budge. It still has very little snow falling across Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 58 minutes ago, gabel23 said: yet another model showing a thin slice of 6-8" of snow for my area. Crazy to see that all models are showing a sliver of heavy snow coming right through my area! There appears to be a lot of banding with this system, right now according to that model I would get around 4-5" of snow, which I would take in a heartbeat. I have a feeling that amounts are going to vary quite a bit over short distances of a few miles... this is actually pretty typical of snow events around here though. According to the NWS, the Omaha metro is sitting right in the bullseye for this system - what could possibly go wrong LOL!?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm going to keep saying it until I'm proven wrong. The GFS has major problems with thermals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Well, my grid gives me warning snows! Today Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 hours ago, Tom said: It appears that we are going to see our Sub's first "share the wealth" winter storm. It's really to bad the cold air is lacking but you have to take the good with the bad. The Good = Moisture...The Bad = Warm Temps = Less Snowfall... 00z Euro...I'll take 2" and creep towards normal snowfall for the season...Good Luck to all of those out west and north of here...this is just the beginning of real winter and plenty of more chances down the road. I got a good feeling about what the future holds. This system is just a testament that we will have periods of wet storm systems and this one certainly is loaded with moisture. 00z Euro Control... 00z EPS... Wrt the moisture-laden systems coming out of the SW. Kudos to a great call that the Baja Low would be a key feature of this season's LRC. Op Euro maps are eye-candy for NMI and make me wish I could do a chase but my current work schedule won't allow unfortunately. I will say, the "Max snowfall" amount of 25.5" hiding in one of those little dots/blobs would be insane and has to be over-done. Some of the SR models are also robust (in the teen amts) which would be similar to the very heavy 15" storm I had at my place on Nov 5th, 1990 a couple short months after moving in up there. That really trashed a ton of pine trees. Forest near my place looked like a war zone tbh. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 The GDPS continues to drop totals a bit more. It was a bit too bullish yesterday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 With these qpf totals, it's just an absolute shame there isn't cold air already in place. This would have been one of the largest snowstorms in awhile for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm starting to feel my county may be added to advisory. Have to see how radar plays out later in day as well as temps. I'm still at 36. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: With these qpf totals, it's just an absolute shame there isn't cold air already in place. This would have been one of the largest snowstorms in awhile for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. I might get 2" of rain!. It has been pretty dry around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Wrt the moisture-laden systems coming out of the SW. Kudos to a great call that the Baja Low would be a key feature of this season's LRC. Op Euro maps are eye-candy for NMI and make me wish I could do a chase but my current work schedule won't allow unfortunately. I will say, the "Max snowfall" amount of 25.5" hiding in one of those little dots/blobs would be insane and has to be over-done. Some of the SR models are also robust (in the teen amts) which would be similar to the very heavy 15" storm I had at my place on Nov 5th, 1990 a couple short months after moving in up there. That really trashed a ton of pine trees. Forest near my place looked like a war zone tbh. This flow will be back and deliver our area the goods. Once we get the arctic air involved it’ll be a different story. It sucks being missed but all you can do is look ahead. Enjoy what ever precip comes out of the skies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Models are suggesting there may be a break in the precip for a few hours this evening around here as wave 1 leaves and the defo snow band organizes over central IA. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 @CentralNebWeather, I just saw a live shot on TWC and it’s a winter wonderland. Congrats bud! That goes for the rest of the NE crew on here. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, Tom said: @CentralNebWeather, I just saw a live shot on TWC and it’s a winter wonderland. Congrats bud! That goes for the rest of the NE crew on here. Thanks Tom. Got a little surprise here with this storm that didn't look too promising several days ago. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 The output on the UK doesn't add up. Despite 850s well below freezing from 6pm Friday on forward, it shows virtually no snow accumulation for Iowa City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro starts in 10 minutes and I'm still riding it out until the bitter end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Final UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro with a nudge north 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Close up in Iowa with Kuchera. Man literally exactly where the 6" line is in Johnson County is where I live. Always right on the edge of the heavy stuff. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 8" fremont, I'll take it. Lock it in 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Any idea when the Euro changes to snow in the DBQ area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: 8" fremont, I'll take it. Lock it in I think you and I will ride with the euro and ukie!!! Bring it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 With that output you would think an upgrade to a warning would be coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro Saying eight I’ll go with 2 to 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: Any idea when the Euro changes to snow in the DBQ area? HRRR and Euro both switch DBQ to snow around 6pm, although the best snow won't arrive til after midnight. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: Any idea when the Euro changes to snow in the DBQ area? Around 3pm or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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