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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


bud2380

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Radar suggests the new batch of good precip is turning to snow as it expands north into Cedar Rapids.  I'll find out soon.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The latest HRRR run parks a heavy band over Cedar Rapids, and eventually Iowa City late tonight into Sat morning.

The current precip is mostly snow, although light so far, with maybe a ping or two.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest HRRR run parks a heavy band over Cedar Rapids, and eventually Iowa City late tonight into Sat morning.

The current precip is mostly snow, although light so far, with maybe a ping or two.

I dont really think there is a better scenario for CR/IC.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yes, very surprising. Basically sat over me for 5 hours now. Looks like several more hours. Local sheriff is advising against travel as snow is thick on the roads. I bet we see some 8” reports by tomorrow morning somewhere in the Central Nebraska area. 

I know Aurora has had at least 6 or 7, but it won't look like quite that much with the compaction. I drove the 3 hours from brown Saint Joseph, MO to my parents house to enjoy the flakes. It's been too long. This was a very impressive band of snow considering how far East the low is and how weak it is.  Couldn't ask for anything more out of it. If every storm cooperated like this we'd be buried every winter! Love these Interstate 80 specials

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Like the earlier batch of precip, the new batch is not producing anything that will accumulate.  I think there is still a mixing issue.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Up to 2" now. Hopefully there's redevelopment because it looks like a dry pocket is about to hit before the back edge. If not, probably will end with under 3". Still a pretty night regardless. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Drive home from work was interesting  Very slippery. Take 6" of powder and 15F over this 31F and little friction. Pics in a bit. Probably 1.75" to 2" thus far.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Measured 2.75" as it's still coming down at a good clip. I've been looking at a still radar image so didn't realize the movement of the system until I looked at an animiation. I guess it's hanging around a bit, so I wouldn't be surprised to get another inch at least. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Mesoscale Discussion 1839
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Iowa

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 120719Z - 121315Z

   SUMMARY...An area of heavy snowfall is forecast to evolve over the
   next 2-3 hours, with snowfall rates around 1" per hour expected --
   likely peaking during a 3-5 hour period from roughly 08-09Z through
   12-14Z.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a zone of light to moderate
   snowfall occurring from eastern Nebraska eastward to eastern Iowa,
   with the current rain/snow line extending roughly from KLWD (Lamoni
   IA) to roughly KCWI (Clinton IA).  This zone of snowfall is
   occurring within a zone of deformation north of a well-defined vort
   max -- evident in current WV imagery over the Ozark Plateau of
   southern Missouri -- which will continue moving east-northeastward
   with time and reaching central Illinois around sunrise.

   Favorable large-scale ascent will continue within the deformation
   zone as the surface low -- now over northeastern Missouri --
   continues to gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with
   time, in tandem with translation of the upper feature, and
   strengthening of the cold conveyor belt.  With moist/saturated
   thermal profiles -- including within the favored dendritic growth
   zone -- an increase in snowfall rates within the deformation zone is
   expected, possibly aided by some weak convective enhancement given
   steep lapse rates and even some minimal CAPE hinted at within model
   forecast soundings.

   Snowfall should increase over the next 2-3 hours, and continue at
   around 1" per hour rates within the MD area for several hours,
   before tapering gradually from west to east through mid morning.

   ..Goss.. 12/12/2020
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This is really the perfect track of a storm for C.IA into E.IA. Been plenty of QPF-  ( talking .70 or allready) about 1/3 has been rain. Winds  stronger than forecast. ( trees trunks blasted -- see coming pic)  "IF" cold air was entrenched N- this would've been a barn burner. Not being picky.  I love it.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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TExt book pivot point right near DSM. Ratios all ready going up here WNW of KDSM (yes i measure/melt every hr when able- same thing I do for my job) to 12-13:1

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Woke up to the sound of rain pelting my skylight and wind driven rain hitting the windows.  Reading through all your posts I'm thrilled that this storm is delivering the goods.  Quite the moisture laden storm system.  As a few have stated, this storm is going to be ear marked for future cycles.  Just the perfect track, wind trajectory, moisture but all we are missing is the cold air.  See you back in late Jan???  Anyhow, one could only think what "could have been"...congrats on the snow out west guys.  Looking great for all of you in NE/IA and now into S Wisco later today.

 

Local reporting stations suggests 1.40" of liquid thus far for mby....man, this would have buried Chicago...esp with the perfect wind trajectory to produce LEHS.

 

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For the record - again - GFS was miserable on this event. Chalk this in the archives for upcoming events. Euro ( and others)  hails as KING-- (will probably see isolated 7"+ reports in C.IA, something the GFS had no clue, even up to the event.  The GFS is certainly a "Perfect Stranger" when it comes to this event (and most) -- and  for those that like this song- kudos to you. Awesome tune btw. For you youngins out there, this is some music you don't see today.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yep the GFS was awful for this storm. It did a good job sniffing out storm potential up to 10+ days out. So kudos there but in terms of any reliable details of the storm it was atrocious. Like I said repeatedly the GFS has major thermal issues. I noticed it this summer and it continues now in winter. So a marginal temperature event like this it’s no surprise it couldn’t handle it. The 00z run shows 1-3” across the state at best. Dubuque is already well past that. 

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I just woke up to check.  Of course, I'm in the middle of a dry pocket so the snow is very light.  I'm not going outside now, but there's a report of 1.5" in CR and that looks reasonable.  There's a batch of heavy snow east and northeast of CR.  Hopefully, we can get into a bit of that by morning.  The 3k NAM has the heaviest snow lifting up to the east of CR.  We'll see.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Up to 4". Probably end up between 5-6". This song comes to mind as I look out my window. (a good descriptive song does better than even a pic (will add one before bed) but hear goes. A true song for winter lovers---

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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