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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


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Woke up to the sound of rain pelting my skylight and wind driven rain hitting the windows.  Reading through all your posts I'm thrilled that this storm is delivering the goods.  Quite the moisture laden storm system.  As a few have stated, this storm is going to be ear marked for future cycles.  Just the perfect track, wind trajectory, moisture but all we are missing is the cold air.  See you back in late Jan???  Anyhow, one could only think what "could have been"...congrats on the snow out west guys.  Looking great for all of you in NE/IA and now into S Wisco later today.

 

Local reporting stations suggests 1.40" of liquid thus far for mby....man, this would have buried Chicago...esp with the perfect wind trajectory to produce LEHS.

 

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For the record - again - GFS was miserable on this event. Chalk this in the archives for upcoming events. Euro ( and others)  hails as KING-- (will probably see isolated 7"+ reports in C.IA, something the GFS had no clue, even up to the event.  The GFS is certainly a "Perfect Stranger" when it comes to this event (and most) -- and  for those that like this song- kudos to you. Awesome tune btw. For you youngins out there, this is some music you don't see today.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yep the GFS was awful for this storm. It did a good job sniffing out storm potential up to 10+ days out. So kudos there but in terms of any reliable details of the storm it was atrocious. Like I said repeatedly the GFS has major thermal issues. I noticed it this summer and it continues now in winter. So a marginal temperature event like this it’s no surprise it couldn’t handle it. The 00z run shows 1-3” across the state at best. Dubuque is already well past that. 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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I just woke up to check.  Of course, I'm in the middle of a dry pocket so the snow is very light.  I'm not going outside now, but there's a report of 1.5" in CR and that looks reasonable.  There's a batch of heavy snow east and northeast of CR.  Hopefully, we can get into a bit of that by morning.  The 3k NAM has the heaviest snow lifting up to the east of CR.  We'll see.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Up to 4". Probably end up between 5-6". This song comes to mind as I look out my window. (a good descriptive song does better than even a pic (will add one before bed) but hear goes. A true song for winter lovers---

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I awoke around 5 am. and it was snowing hard when that orange band on COD radar was overhead. But it looked only like a half inch or so eyeballing it out of the window, but when I checked twenty minutes ago I already have around 2”. My digital gauge shows only 0.01” of rain after 2 am. so maybe the change over was just after 2am? Should’ve gotten up sooner. It’s a very wet snow plastering everything. 
 

BTW, I had at least 1” of rain before change over.

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I have not been out to measure, yet.  This system has been kinda meh.  The first wave last evening was too mix-ish and inconsistent to accumulate.  The few times I woke up overnight to check it was only snowing lightly.  It appears no heavy snow pocket moved over CR.  Now that it's light out, the flakes are tiny.  Radar shows the precip quickly eroding from the west.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Woke up this morning to a couple of heavy wet inches already here in northern lower Michigan, trees are already starting to weigh down pretty good unfortunately. Wind is really cranking, really hoping we don’t lose pwr. Sounds like their calling for 6-10 inches here in the “higher” terrain, we’re a little over 1200’ in elevation, but less snow as you get down by the lake shore areas. Planning on getting our first decent snowmobile ride in this evening and tomorrow, this heavy snow makes a great base to build on and help get the trails open.

3D96BF04-F269-4DA9-AA8F-69F217BFD79B.jpeg

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I am measuring between 6.5-7” here. Seems to be on track with what the DBQ Airport had about 2 hours ago (5.10”), so I’ll trust what I have. Don’t have a great measurement system set up at the new house yet, so kind of winging it here.

Actually had 4” in the spot I’ve been clearing off every 6 hours or so, which would give me 7.3”, but I’m not sure I really trust that amount. 

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That heavy pocket really delivered for Johnson county (Iowa City).

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Measured 3.25" here. I have a great spot to measure. I built a dog house years ago with a peaked roof with shingles and it's in the corner of our yard by the fence so it's pretty sheltered. Much more accurate than measuring in the grass of course which you're not supposed to anyway. If I took those measurements, than I'm over 5" and I know that's not right. That being said, the NWS mentioned the very marginal temps really led to a lot of melting during the event so that's disappointing.

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16 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Measured 3.25" here. I have a great spot to measure. I built a dog house years ago with a peaked roof with shingles and it's in the corner of our yard by the fence so it's pretty sheltered. Much more accurate than measuring in the grass of course which you're not supposed to anyway. If I took those measurements, than I'm over 5" and I know that's not right. That being said, the NWS mentioned the very marginal temps really led to a lot of melting during the event so that's disappointing.

I was just about to say there was alot of compaction. I'm guessing we have between 3-4 here.

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I will gladly take the 3 to 4” that we got with this system, it’s nice to finally see a Winter Wonderland out. The pesky warmer temps and sleet early on kept us from getting the higher amounts, however I am not going to complain one bit about this system.

As mentioned before, this stuff is like concrete... heavy and full of moisture, clearing my driveway and walks this morning was a chore but I loved every minute of it.

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I picked up almost 4".  Bud's 4" came down a lot faster than mine.  It's a solid, typical Iowa moderate marginal-temp winter storm.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a report of 6.3" near Tiffin, plus 5.5" just south of me in CR.  I don't buy the CR total.  I only have 5" if I stick the ruler down through the grass to the soil.  There is another report of 4" just west of me, which is about what I have.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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APX update brings Big Dog potential to portions of NMI. Some of those SR maps that looked juiced may have been the real deal. It's great when a system looks better and better as it gets into game time.

Quote


.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM EST Sat Dec 12 2020

Negatively tilted upper trough swinging into the southern Great
Lakes this morning with broad area of precipitation across the
lower peninsula. Increasing mid level warm air advection with
steepening lapse rates should translate into bands of heavier snow
within the broader area of moderate snow. Snowfall rates through
the early afternoon hours of 1-2" an hour appear likely across
much of northern lower. Rates of 2"+ per hour rates will be
possible within a developing deformation axis situated across
northeast lower into the higher terrain. Snowfall rates may
diminish some by mid to late afternoon as the best forcing becomes
a bit more displaced from the upper features. Also expect Lake
Huron enhancement, focusing specifically from Presque Isle to
Alpena. It is certainly not out of the question to see some
10-15" amounts in this area.

 

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Had a burst of roof-pounding +RN as the SLP passed very near mby. We really needed a "rinse off" as all the deer splats along the highways from the rut season crashes were still obvious for many weeks already. Never in my life have I seen that. GRR mentioned it's been months since SWMI had a nice qpf event like this. 

 

20201212 Radar 1130.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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From GRR's northeastern county. This already, when the main action was today.

Quote

1040 AM     SNOW             HARRISON                44.02N 84.80W
12/12/2020  E5.0 INCH        CLARE              MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND
            6 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN SO FAR IN
            HARRISON. STILL SNOWING. MULTIPLE TREES AND
            POWER LINES DOWN.

 

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I ended up with 7" but it might have been more if not for compaction! A person who lives north of town reported 8.1" for Hastings. The short range models and the foreign models nailed this storm for my area! The sliver of 6-8" showing up on the short range came to fruition. Very happy overall and hope this snow can stick around for a while!! 

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This stuff is heavy and gave my back and arms a workout.  I'm not sad that I didn't get 8".  I'd love to have 8-12" of dry fluff at some point.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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