Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Factoring in marginal thermals, rather warm ground for mid-Dec and mixing issues , looks to me like WWA and 1-3 to perhaps 2-4 for most reading 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Ukie with 1.5" of QPF for Iowa City. Dang if it was just a little bit colder. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 The Friday night into Saturday morning timing should help with accumulation. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Unfortunately it will be a cold rain for us Chicago peeps but good luck to you all in Iowa and Wisconsin. Maybe the next round will be our turn but really wasn't expecting much anyway until maybe around Christmas. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Kalamazoo continues to be shafted in very near misses. Smh. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Euro 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
dubuque473 272 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 UKIE would be 13” for me lol Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 The Euro is more amped like other models, but just tracks a bit farther south. The Euro is also faster than the UK. The UK has the heaviest snow here after 6am Saturday, while the Euro has it done by 6am. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Kuchera maps 1 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Starting to like the chance of a 2-4" event for SE Neb. I'm a little concerned about temps, Euro is 31 most of the storm, NAM/GFS hang around 32. Should be fine, but I would be annoyed by a 33 degree heavy snow that barely accumulates. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Using 10:1 here is what today's models show for my neck of the woods: Euro: Cedar Rapids - 4.5" Iowa City - 6.0" GFS: Cedar Rapids - 5.6" Iowa City - 6.0" UKMET: Cedar Rapids - 9.3" Iowa City - 7.2" Canadian: Cedar Rapids - 5.8" Iowa City - 4.0" NAM: Cedar Rapids - 7.6" Iowa City - 7.5" RGEM: Cedar Rapids - 9.0" Iowa City - 12.0" That averages out to right around 7" for both locations. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Starting to like the chance of a 2-4" event for SE Neb. I'm a little concerned about temps, Euro is 31 most of the storm, NAM/GFS hang around 32. Should be fine, but I would be annoyed by a 33 degree heavy snow that barely accumulates. Remember temp is measured at 2M. Some of the heaviest snow I seen accumulate here in IA was with 2M temp of 33F in Feb. That was with a cold ground though. Still, as long as surface temps are 32 or lower, that's all that matters. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 EPS Ensemble Mean. Looks a lot like it has for the past couple of days. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
FV-Mike 423 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Nice looking storm. Hoping this bumps a little SE. Happy with a couple inches 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4711 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, bud2380 said: EPS Ensemble Mean. Looks a lot like it has for the past couple of days. My guess around here is a 2-4" snow. With the ongoing drought, I'll side with the lowest amounts until proven otherwise. That's the way it has gone for the last 9 months. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4711 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18Z NAM is quite a hit for Central and Eastern Nebraska. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater 1325 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 3-5/4-6 is probably a good guess in the max band in E IA right now. Expecting melting and compaction to play a decent role. Temps are actually rather cold aloft with little/no WAA nose present, so ratios may be decent(ie closer to 10:1). Especially with defo zone lift. 1 1 Quote 2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 51.6" (Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”) (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7") Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Did they bring back the DGEX? jk.....NAM looks nice for a lot of peeps. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Hey, a low that doesn't track through Iowa! Congrats down there! Looking pretty good at the moment. 2 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Hey, a low that doesn't track through Iowa! Congrats down there! Looking pretty good at the moment. No doubt. Unfortunately ill be in your neck of the woods this weekend so ill miss out. Kinda hoping it stays south of 20 just for that reason lol. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 LOL NAM. Ok. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4711 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18z 3km NAM through 60 hours. Yes please. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM is such an outlier. Throw it out. Euro bias here. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 hours ago, whatitdo said: Kalamazoo continues to be shafted in very near misses. Smh. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OmahaSnowFan 1386 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 13" in my backyard on the 18Z NAM. LOLZ. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS is weak. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
jcwxguy 1471 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: GFS is weak. Way 2020 is going, gfs will end up correct and rest of the models be wrong 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jcwxguy 1471 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18z GFS weak for most, though LNK still manages 3.9". 2.3" for OMA. Every model has at least around 3" for Lincoln, what could go wrong lmao. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
dubuque473 272 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Well I have the 69% going for me at least... 1 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 55 minutes ago, Stacsh said: lmaoooo seriously!! im throwing it for my sanity's sake. only @jaster220 's weather guru knowledge/reassurance can cheer me up 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18Z RDPS-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Is this a new silly graphic DMX came up with? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is this a new silly graphic DMX came up with? it really is stupid. So the "exact track - timing and amounts" are moderate in confidence level BUT you can tell me I got a 56% chance of seeing 2" or more.? Sure you can.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, whatitdo said: lmaoooo seriously!! im throwing it for my sanity's sake. only @jaster220 's weather guru knowledge/reassurance can cheer me up Apparently a couple days ago when GRR was talking up the backside LES potential, they were expecting a much colder air mass. Short of a miracle last minute shift, this is another early season NMI special. The Dec 2012 bliz was another warm Dec storm that the Euro insisted on a track well south only to cave to the north trend in the end. Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18Z CAN- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4711 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 18 Z Euro- a little N in IA 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 18z Euro. Just hold serve please. LOL. A solid 7" here. I'd take that in a heartbeat for the first real snowstorm of the year. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Korean model for the win! 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Bryan1117 960 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: 18 Z Euro- a little N in IA I would gladly take that 5 to 6" bullseye over the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas as well! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 NAM still warmer and further north. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM still warmer and further north. Still juiced af for Neb. LNK on the southern edge so far and OMA is getting a bit more. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
jcwxguy 1471 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Still juiced af for Neb. LNK on the southern edge so far and OMA is getting a bit more. 3km nam isn't so hot Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 it's actually further S --- as is 3KM 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Apparently a couple days ago when GRR was talking up the backside LES potential, they were expecting a much colder air mass. Short of a miracle last minute shift, this is another early season NMI special. The Dec 2012 bliz was another warm Dec storm that the Euro insisted on a track well south only to cave to the north trend in the end. bro. im tellin you im a snow repeller. force field activated 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: 3km nam isn't so hot Omaha and Lincoln still do fine, but 12k's northern extent is the difference between 7" and 0 in Dodge county.... 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
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