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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


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Factoring in marginal thermals, rather warm ground for mid-Dec and mixing issues , looks to me like WWA and 1-3 to perhaps 2-4 for most reading

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Unfortunately we’ve had 3 fatalities in front of my house🤣🤣

Solid 1" here with a fairly heavy, wet snow falling at 30 degrees and enough of a north wind to blow it around a little.  Streets are awfully slick.  My grids say 1-3" today and 1" tonight with no WWA

Awesomeness!!!

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The Friday night into Saturday morning timing should help with accumulation.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Unfortunately it will be a cold rain for us Chicago peeps but good luck to you all in Iowa and Wisconsin. Maybe the next round will be our turn but really wasn't expecting much anyway until maybe around Christmas.

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The Euro is more amped like other models, but just tracks a bit farther south.

The Euro is also faster than the UK.  The UK has the heaviest snow here after 6am Saturday, while the Euro has it done by 6am.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Starting to like the chance of a 2-4" event for SE Neb. I'm a little concerned about temps, Euro is 31 most of the storm, NAM/GFS hang around 32. Should be fine, but I would be annoyed by a 33 degree heavy snow that barely accumulates.  

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Using 10:1 here is what today's models show for my neck of the woods:

Euro:

Cedar Rapids - 4.5"

Iowa City - 6.0"

GFS:

Cedar Rapids - 5.6"

Iowa City - 6.0"

UKMET:

Cedar Rapids - 9.3"

Iowa City - 7.2"

Canadian:

Cedar Rapids - 5.8"

Iowa City - 4.0"

NAM:

Cedar Rapids - 7.6"

Iowa City - 7.5"

RGEM:

Cedar Rapids - 9.0"

Iowa City - 12.0"

That averages out to right around 7" for both locations. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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10 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Starting to like the chance of a 2-4" event for SE Neb. I'm a little concerned about temps, Euro is 31 most of the storm, NAM/GFS hang around 32. Should be fine, but I would be annoyed by a 33 degree heavy snow that barely accumulates.  

Remember temp is measured at 2M. Some of the heaviest snow I seen accumulate here in IA was with 2M temp of 33F in Feb. That was with a cold ground though. Still, as long as surface temps are 32 or lower, that's all that matters. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3-5/4-6 is probably a good guess in the max band in E IA right now. Expecting melting and compaction to play a decent role. Temps are actually rather cold aloft with little/no WAA nose present, so ratios may be decent(ie closer to 10:1). Especially with defo zone lift.

 

ecmwf_full_2020120912_072_41.75--91.75.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Hey, a low that doesn't track through Iowa!  Congrats down there! Looking pretty good at the moment. 

No doubt. Unfortunately ill be in your neck of the woods this weekend so ill miss out. Kinda hoping it stays south of 20 just for that reason lol.

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18z GFS weak for most, though LNK still manages 3.9". 2.3" for OMA. Every model has at least around 3" for Lincoln, what could go wrong lmao. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is this a new silly graphic DMX came up with?

it really is stupid. So the "exact track - timing and amounts" are moderate in confidence level BUT you can tell me I got a 56% chance of seeing 2" or more.? Sure you can....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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23 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

lmaoooo seriously!! im throwing it for my sanity's sake. only @jaster220 's weather guru knowledge/reassurance can cheer me up

Apparently a couple days ago when GRR was talking up the backside LES potential, they were expecting a much colder air mass. Short of a miracle last minute shift, this is another early season NMI special. The Dec 2012 bliz was another warm Dec storm that the Euro insisted on a track well south only to cave to the north trend in the end.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NAM still warmer and further north. 

Still juiced af for Neb. LNK on the southern edge so far and OMA is getting a bit more. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Apparently a couple days ago when GRR was talking up the backside LES potential, they were expecting a much colder air mass. Short of a miracle last minute shift, this is another early season NMI special. The Dec 2012 bliz was another warm Dec storm that the Euro insisted on a track well south only to cave to the north trend in the end.

bro. im tellin you im a snow repeller. force field activated

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

3km nam isn't so hot

Omaha and Lincoln still do fine, but 12k's northern extent is the difference between 7" and 0 in Dodge county....

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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