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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


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Unfortunately we’ve had 3 fatalities in front of my house🤣🤣

Solid 1" here with a fairly heavy, wet snow falling at 30 degrees and enough of a north wind to blow it around a little.  Streets are awfully slick.  My grids say 1-3" today and 1" tonight with no WWA

Awesomeness!!!

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Here in Iowa we should probably go into this expecting a 3-6" band, with anything more a bonus.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I wonder if we see WSWs though. I've seen expectations of 3-6 go both ways. 

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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^ I doubt it. ( per the WSW question)  Most AfD's I read are saying 2-4" max (at least from DMX) -- maybe NE IA

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see winter storm watches. 1) first snowstorm of the year. 2) many models are showing the possibility of 6” or more.  I could see a lot of areas go with a winter weather advisory in the end and perhaps a small zone of winter storm warnings where 6”+ is more likely. Well see. Depends what the Euro shows before I’d make that call. They could easily hold off until tomorrow afternoon as well. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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If the nam scores the win on this one I’ll be ecstatic. My main concern is how well are the models picking up on dry air? We have been extremely dry obviously with the drought going on; I’m wondering if saturation will be a problem? I’ll take the euro too.

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DVN has me at 3-6” now...

 

Friday Night
A chance of rain before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Saturday
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Snow 3

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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Crush job on the GFS. DVN needs to get headlines out ASAP

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Zero snow in Cedar Rapids on the GFS.🤔

It appears the GFS is just shooting the second wave of energy east of Iowa before it tries to turn north and wrap up.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

The scary thing on the GFS is it's not just "one" run. Back to back and trending towards a non-event.

I can't remember but I'm pretty sure there's been at least one storm in the past couple of years where it was the world vs. GFS and GFS won for a change.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

The scary thing on the GFS is it's not just "one" run. Back to back and trending towards a non-event.

It does have a progressive bias. And it is certainly the most progressive member of the suite and has been. I wouldn't discount it by any means, just something to keep in mind.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Early HRRR

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GEFS slightly weaker, but not as bleak as the OP. Members are still kind of all over the place considering how close the storm is. Prior EPS runs not any more consistent.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Ukie appears to be cutting back also- and seems a little warmer for thermals but tough to tell for sure until 850 is out.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Y’all think the Omadome is bad, I promise you the Chicago dome is way worse. Even if this thing shifted south for us it wouldn’t stick here in the city anyways. Blows my mind how we get accumulating snow at all sometimes. Anyways, I’m rooting for all of you! I think a lot of you will get decent snow from this :)) 

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Zero snow in Cedar Rapids on the GFS.🤔

It appears the GFS is just shooting the second wave of energy east of Iowa before it tries to turn north and wrap up.

Sounds like the JMA Tom posted earlier

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The UK tonight is doing the exact same thing the GFS is.  The second wave tracks well east of the 12z run before turning north and wrapping up, so it basically skips Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS almost getting this back to a RN->SN event first discussed days ago. Too bad for all us, it's just marginal cold *again

 

20201210 0z GFS h72 Surf.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK tonight is doing the exact same thing the GFS is.  The second wave tracks well east of the 12z run before turning north and wrapping up, so it basically skips Iowa.

Yep- expect the Euro to follow suite. This never was WSW material in my book and the way things are going even WWA may be a stretch....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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9 minutes ago, Jaycee said:

Oh my, if only this was all snow 😭😭

Ikr? Would be GHD-1 deja-vu storm for Chicago-land. Third year in a row we've gotten great storms at the very front end of winter and none during..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Ukie with some nice winds coming down Lk. Michigan at h72

 

20201210 0z UK h72 MSLP winds.png

  • Windy 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, whatitdo said:

bro. im tellin you im a snow repeller. force field activated

 

 

Haha. Nah, you're ok, it's just the pattern we're dealt attm. IF you really were tho, I'd tell you to take a hike up to FAR_wx's place and camp there, lol.

Anyhow, while we may still get screwed on the synoptic stuff due to a track over our heads, tonight's runs are more favorable than the last 24 hrs. The UKmet's option, while not January grade cold, it may be enough to get SWMI back into the LES option mentioned by GRR prior to everything shifting north. Here's the 850's off the Ukie:

 

20201210 0z UK h66-102 850s.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well euro not caving, even stronger if anything

It was slow to bounce N yesterday, it may be trailing the pack this time as well. Let's see..

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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