December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm

[jaster220]

Euro = cut-n-paste from last run..

[jaster220]

GRR

LES to the rescue!

Quote

There looks to be a period of lake effect snow possibly on Sunday
before the system and deeper moisture kicks off to the east. The
lake effect may continue into Sunday night as well.

-- Chance for Some Snow next Tuesday-Wednesday --

A cold front as well as multiple upper shortwaves will be working
through the Great Lakes region next Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder
air is pulled in behind the second shortwave that will make lake
effect snow likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

 

[bud2380]

DVNs AFD does a good job detailing the model differences and points out the GFS as the outlier but appears to be siding with the GFS anyways. Calling for 1-4” is all. 

[bud2380]

6Z NAM looks terrible. The 3K NAM though still looks really good. 

[bud2380]

6Z GFS is total garbage again. I’m not saying it’s wrong as I obviously have no idea what will happen. But the GFS did an awful job with thermals this summer and I wonder if it’s really struggling with this marginal temperature event here as well. One of the hottest days of the summer with forecasts near 100 the GFS maintained highs in the low to mid 80s for days and even the day of the GFS still was 10-15 degrees off. I personally think the last upgrade of the GFS has made it better in some areas but worse in others as well. It will be interesting to see who wins out here as the GFS and Euro are worlds apart in the snowfall department on this storm. 

[Tom]

00z Euro...come on...all Chicago needs is a little more nudge south...so darn close...

 

00z Euro Control...

 

00z EPS mean...

 

There's a secondary piece that rotates around the base of the trough and the models are picking it up for our lone member down in OK...

[Grizzcoat]

06Z CMC still rather robust- probably another 6-12 hours before it caves --

[Grizzcoat]

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings:

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

 

[bud2380]

I liked the 00z euro way better than the 6z. 

[dubuque473]

Swails:

Right now I think the GFS is an outlier and I'm leaning toward the EURO and GEM snowfall solutions which are significantly higher. All 3 are posted below. I do want to stress there is still room for change and confidence is only low to moderate in any outcome.

[Stacsh]

Did they build I-96 in Michigan right on the snow line for all these storms on purpose? I'm always 1 county south.  

[Stacsh]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

GRR

LES to the rescue!

 

yeah...about that

A thermal trough sets over the Great Lakes Region for next week.
This will support temperatures that will be closer to normal for
this time of the year. At this time it does not look cold enough
for any widespread lake effect snow showers.

[bud2380]

NAM is trending in the wrong direction.  

[bud2380]

The NAM has been all over the place the last few runs, and yesterday it was so far north it had 8" in SE Minnesota.  This run it brings heavy snow to western Iowa and then as it rotates east it just dissolves, bringing very little snow from the deformation band into Eastern Iowa.  Most of the snow in eastern Iowa is from the lead wave, which the rain/snow line seems to be setting up around Highway 30 (Cedar Rapids) on north.

 

[bud2380]

3K NAM did the same thing and took a huge step back from the 06z run.  For whatever reason the deformation band just doesn't hold together and it gets weaker going into Eastern Iowa.

 

[bud2380]

The HRRR is a little better than the NAM and it doesn't get through the storm, so another inch or two could be tacked on in Iowa.

 

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, we're losing the NAM now, too.  It appears the GFS may have the right idea.  The second wave largely scoots by to the southeast and is weaker.

[bud2380]

ICON.  Granted I don't trust it, but here it is.

[jaster220]

OOF!  Hasta Lavista! Not even a flake in my grid now. Such a great color season, followed by this stuff. What a loser pattern.

[bud2380]

The 850 0 degree line just hovers along I80 and Hwy 30 on the GFS in Iowa.  

[bud2380]

GFS holds the line.  Says, this is a rain maker and not much snow.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Did they build I-96 in Michigan right on the snow line for all these storms on purpose? I'm always 1 county south.  

Thought your place was NE of GR, no?

[bud2380]

[jaster220]

Just now, bud2380 said:

GFS holds the line.  Says, this is a rain maker and not much snow.  

fwiw, GFS was the only model to NAIL the 11-26-18 storm here wrt the warmer outcome. Every other model had 8+ while it was stingy and ended up correct as the warm nose was slow to move out on that early season system. Rain held on longer than expected and result was 4.5" only.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It seems all the models are guilty of over-amping in the long to medium range, only to back off in the shorter ranges. It really makes this hobby less enjoyable as the excitement fades into bleh

[bud2380]

Depressing morning of model runs. 

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Not much difference, lol

 

[jaster220]

@Tom

Have to believe the Euro Op is magically optimistic with every system. At least in these marginal conditions it's constantly showing like double (or more) of others. Almost like it's become the new weenie model of choice. #sad

[jaster220]

CPC Tuesday had only a mix on their hazards map. I see yesterday they bought into this system making a swath of 4+ inches. This is actually very climo typical for NMI in December. Especially a warmer regime like we have going attm. One thing I always enjoyed about living up there. Warm or cold Decembers produced almost without fail.

 

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Have to believe the Euro Op is magically optimistic with every system. At least in these marginal conditions it's constantly showing like double (or more) of others. Almost like it's become the new weenie model of choice. #sad

The only thing I may see why it’s seeing more snow is bc the system deepens as it tracks just SE of Chicago which could support dynamic cooling.  Temps never get to 32F it appears while snow is falling in warm/wet ground.  Accumulating snow is going to be a now cast event the closer you are towards the lake and city proper.  I’m not optimistic at all on this set up.  Would have been an epic Dec snowstorm if there was true arctic air with all this moisture and lake enhancement.  It really is a superb track and system for what may have been a major snowstorm.  Golly!  We just can’t get things align.  

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

The only thing I may see why it’s seeing more snow is bc the system deepens as it tracks just SE of Chicago which could support dynamic cooling.  Temps never get to 32F it appears while snow is falling in warm/wet ground.  Accumulating snow is going to be a now cast event the closer you are towards the lake and city proper.  I’m not optimistic at all on this set up.  Would have been an epic Dec snowstorm if there was true arctic air with all this moisture and lake enhancement.  It really is a superb track and system for what may have been a major snowstorm.  Golly!  We just can’t get things align.  

To the bolded. I'm sure it's snow output aligns with it's own interpretation of how the storm performs, just as those maps which had 30" in Ohio did. My point is, it seems to lean towards the MOST dynamic outcome possible, thus shows the most wintry results vs reality. It certainly was waaayy wrong on the phase-bomb scenario and again it's on an island with the strength it showed at 0z. Otherwise, yeah, we just can't win around here lately. Hope your days good bud!

[james1976]

The consistent weak GFS runs are concerning. Interested to see what offices do later on or tonight .

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian/GDPS is still holding steady with its solid defo zone passing across Iowa.

[bud2380]

RDPS (or RGEM) similar to the GDPS

 

[Hawkeye]

I'd like to see some snow, but I'm not a big fan of rain-to-snow events that leave a layer of slush under the snow.  I'm currently experiencing a flare-up of a repetitive stress injury (right hand/wrist), so I'm not looking forward to shoveling heavy crap.

[Stacsh]

53 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thought your place was NE of GR, no?

Just north of I-96  NE suburbs.  Just not our storm.  We really need colder air in SMI for storms.  They seem to cut right through SMI.  Most of our snow is LES/LEH anyway.  Until we get sustainable cold it's the way it's going to be.  Good news is the Longer range is active, the bad news is not a a lot of arctic air.  Oh well.  At least north of here will finally get some.  Traverse City only has 2.4" of snowfall this year.  That's pretty crazy.  

[GDR]

Looks like a good run morning models for some hope it keeps up

[bud2380]

Hard to tell without ptype maps on the Ukie what's going on here.  Looks similar to last night on track and qpf, so thermals will tell all here.