December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm

[FarmerRick]

if the GFS was showing 12" of snow, everyone would be saying it was the one to go with....  

[bud2380]

Well UKIE is barf too.  So we'll see if the Euro does a full cave or not here.  We basically have the Canadian and ICON still showing significant snow and every other model showing much less.

 

 

 

[GDR]

I’ll take 2-3 any day 

[gabel23]

8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Well UKIE is barf too.  So we'll see if the Euro does a full cave or not here.  We basically have the Canadian and ICON still showing significant snow and every other model showing much less.

 

 

 

NIce bullseye right over my back yard on that run! See that little sliver of 6+, right over my county! HA. 

[gabel23]

First advisory out from Hastings. Mentioned the trend is further north. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1103 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020

NEZ041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-110100-
/O.COR.KGID.WW.Y.0019.201211T1200Z-201212T1200Z/
Nance-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Hall-Hamilton-York-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
Including the cities of Fullerton, Genoa, St. Libory,
Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk, Grand Island,
Aurora, York, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar,
Fairfield, Geneva, Exeter, Fairmont, Inavale, Red Cloud,
Blue Hill, Rosemont, Bladen, Bostwick, Superior, Nelson, Hebron,
and Deshler
1103 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
  Localized higher amounts are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central
  Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* WIND...North 10-15 MPH with gusts to around 25 MPH.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This system has been trending northward,
  and the band of heaviest snow is currently forecast to be near
  Interstate 80. But additional shifts are possible, so stay tuned
  for upcoming forecasts.

[bud2380]

Euro is off and running.  Time to find out if all our hopes and dreams have been destroyed or if faith has been restored.  I'm thinking the former.  The 6z came a tad north and a little less snow.  I'm concerned the 12z will follow. 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro nice hit C.IA

[bud2380]

Euro is still pretty darn good.  So we are at a stalemate here.  GFS won't cave, Euro is holding steady.

 

[james1976]

Grizzcoat bullseye!

[bud2380]

Euro Kuchera.

 

[Bryan1117]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro Kuchera.

 

All hail the KING!!! Nice 8" lollipop over my backyard LOL. I would be happy with half of that at this point.

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!! 

[dubuque473]

Not bad, 7.8” here!
 

Still hoping to get 3” however.

[james1976]

GFS on its own....

 

[dubuque473]

7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro Kuchera.

 

12”...now I know I am screwed.

[Tom]

12z Euro...better here but still not buying it...I think its seeing the dynamic cooling...very heavy precip falls between 12:00-6:00pm on Sat for NE IL...man, what could have been (sounds like a common "saying" the past few winters)...

 

[bud2380]

I'm curious to see what the NWS does now.  I'm sure they will side towards the lighter amounts as they usually do.  They seem to have a GFS bias, which is somewhat baffling.  But when you have one model showing an inch or less for most of the area and another showing 6"+ for a large portion of the area, not sure what you do there. 

[james1976]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm curious to see what the NWS does now.  I'm sure they will side towards the lighter amounts as they usually do.  They seem to have a GFS bias, which is somewhat baffling.  But when you have one model showing an inch or less for most of the area and another showing 6"+ for a large portion of the area, not sure what you do there. 

I'm guessing a 2-4" advisory and see how it looks in the morning 

[Tony]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...better here but still not buying it...I think its seeing the dynamic cooling...very heavy precip falls between 12:00-6:00pm on Sat for NE IL...man, what could have been (sounds like a common "saying" the past few winters)...

 

Not buying these numbers for anyone on this sub and especially for Chi-town northern burbs but one can only dream. Most likely a cold rain with some snow covering the grassy areas for our area and maybe 2-4 for areas NW of here.

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, Tony said:

Not buying these numbers for anyone on this sub and especially for Chi-town northern burbs but one can only dream. Most likely a cold rain with some snow covering the grassy areas for our area and maybe 2-4 for areas NW of here.

RPM model is showing a changeover around noon and looked very similar to the Euro but not as robust.  I think a couple of inches are possible from ORD and points west/north...the city is looking primarily rain and some backside light snow/showers.

[dubuque473]

Local met on the radio just said 2-5”...

 

Is this on shore and fully sampled?

[Stacsh]

GFS has been consistent the last 24-36 hours.  Euro is overplaying snow totals.  Maybe not precip but certainly snow totals.  

[Hawkeye]

15 minutes ago, dubuque473 said:

Is this on shore and fully sampled?

The jet streak that will help spin up the second wave will be onshore this evening.

[snowstorm83]

GFS is wet but much warmer than the NAM/Euro so mostly rain. Annoying, 30 hrs out and no thermal agreement. 

[bud2380]

EPS Ensemble Mean

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

34 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

GFS is wet but much warmer than the NAM/Euro so mostly rain. Annoying, 30 hrs out and no thermal agreement. 

Guessing the time of day may contribute to that in NE

[bud2380]

18z NAM coming wetter than the 12z run.

[bud2380]

NAM is further north with the 850 line than the Euro, so the snow line will be further north, but at least the strength of the system is back this run.  

[Bryan1117]

Winter Weather Advisory just issued here by the NWS for 2 to 5 inches of snow accumulation. Bring it on! 

[Stacsh]

Winter storm watch for 4-7/ 5-8 . 15-30 miles north of me.  mentions between 5-1 up to 9-1 snow ratios.  yuck.    Nothing but 1-2" of rain here.  Cooler (normal) but No precip for next 7 days after this.  Sad.  Good luck to everyone else.  Looks like a lot of slop for a lot of folks.  

[Grizzcoat]

63F today in DSM (on the hour, may have been warmer in-between). Record is 66F. 

[St Paul Storm]

I'd drive to Madison for the weekend if I knew the 18z NAM was correct.....

[Hawkeye]

The latest HRRR mostly misses Cedar Rapids to the southeast with the second wave's defo zone.

3k NAM

[jcwxguy]

I love how fremont, ne is anywhere from .01 to 7" depending on the model lol

[bud2380]

I'm riding the Euro all the way. LOL.  I'd rather be on that train than any of the others, but I sure wish the American models would play ball.  

[Stormhunter87]

WWA for some ice and 1-3 inches. I want snow but lame only 1-3.

[bud2380]

DMX issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4"

 

[bud2380]

EPS Control similar to the regular Euro.

 

[bud2380]

DVN going with 1-4".  

[bud2380]

No headlines for DVN.  Punting until morning it seems.  

[bud2380]

Their AFD was garbage.  Didn't even discuss model discrepancies or why they went with what they did other than lack of cold air and compaction, etc.  No mention of how the GFS and Euro are worlds apart on this storm.