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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


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8 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The pattern isn’t changing.  All of this melts by Christmas anyway.   

We're already losing the split flow after this storm which is step one. Cold air is building in Canada which is step two. Step three is getting the necessary blocking in place to bring that cold air down here, which may take a while.

 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 2.8"

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

We're already losing the split flow after this storm which is step one. Cold air is building in Canada which is step two. Step three is getting the necessary blocking in place to bring that cold air down here, which may take a while.

 

That's pretty much what I meant...after a very dull and boring period, action is picking up across the board (except the north) and the split flow is falling apart.  Now, the other pieces to the puzzle are showing signs of lining up.  It's not the abrupt pattern change but it is definitely changing for the better.

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@CentralNEBweather

 

Must be beautiful up there this morning. I wish I was there. I just pulled up radar from there and it looks like a nice stationary band of moderate snow. ENJOY!! 

 

Going to be a wet snow for most as temps are right around freezing for all. At least its snowing!! 

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11 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@CentralNEBweather

 

Must be beautiful up there this morning. I wish I was there. I just pulled up radar from there and it looks like a nice stationary band of moderate snow. ENJOY!! 

 

Going to be a wet snow for most as temps are right around freezing for all. At least its snowing!! 

Yes it is.  Band is just sitting over me.  I think NWS Hastings should have had the entire area in a WWA as now I'm hearing of traffic accidents on highway 6.  Our school just sent out a message about slick streets and roads and telling parents/students not to be concerned if your late.  I think we probably should have had a late start.  My amounts might overperform.  Just looking out my classroom window, we might be pushing 2" or very close to that.

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1 minute ago, FarmerRick said:

Nam is pretty juicy just NW of Omaha...

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

I'm loving it! Happy snow friday to all! The models really are picking up on some heavy banding possibly and a lot of them have that heavy band coming right through my area. nam has it so does the snow forecast by the NWS. Good luck to all, hopefully this shares the wealth and is a sign of things to come. 

StormTotalSnowWeb_Nebraska.png

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3k NAM - Iowa City in a bit of a tough spot.  It looks like not much snow even in CR til after midnight.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

We have a game in Giltner tonight; that might be a problem! I always take a van and bring my varsity later but might not want to risk it if the roads are that bad out there already! 

You may want to think twice about traveling unless things warm up a little.  Not looking good for basketball games tonight.

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RDPS - Probably a bit inflated, but another model with a sharp drop-off from CR to IC.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Even as the storm begins, the GFS won't budge.  It still has very little snow falling across Iowa.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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58 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

yet another model showing a thin slice of 6-8" of snow for my area. Crazy to see that all models are showing a sliver of heavy snow coming right through my area! 

There appears to be a lot of banding with this system, right now according to that model I would get around 4-5" of snow, which I would take in a heartbeat. I have a feeling that amounts are going to vary quite a bit over short distances of a few miles... this is actually pretty typical of snow events around here though. 

According to the NWS, the Omaha metro is sitting right in the bullseye for this system - what could possibly go wrong LOL!?!

snowfall map.png

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Well, my grid gives me warning snows!

Today
Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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6 hours ago, Tom said:

It appears that we are going to see our Sub's first "share the wealth" winter storm.  It's really to bad the cold air is lacking but you have to take the good with the bad.  The Good = Moisture...The Bad = Warm Temps = Less Snowfall...😞

00z Euro...I'll take 2" and creep towards normal snowfall for the season...Good Luck to all of those out west and north of here...this is just the beginning of real winter and plenty of more chances down the road.  I got a good feeling about what the future holds.  This system is just a testament that we will have periods of wet storm systems and this one certainly is loaded with moisture.

1.png

 

00z Euro Control...

2.png

 

00z EPS...

3.png

5.png

 

Wrt the moisture-laden systems coming out of the SW. Kudos to a great call that the Baja Low would be a key feature of this season's LRC. Op Euro maps are eye-candy for NMI and make me wish I could do a chase but my current work schedule won't allow unfortunately. I will say, the "Max snowfall" amount of 25.5" hiding in one of those little dots/blobs would be insane and has to be over-done. Some of the SR models are also robust (in the teen amts) which would be similar to the very heavy 15" storm I had at my place on Nov 5th, 1990 a couple short months after moving in up there. That really trashed a ton of pine trees. Forest near my place looked like a war zone tbh.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The GDPS continues to drop totals a bit more.  It was a bit too bullish yesterday.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

With these qpf totals, it's just an absolute shame there isn't cold air already in place.  This would have been one of the largest snowstorms in awhile for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

I might get 2" of rain!.  It has been pretty dry around here.  

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Wrt the moisture-laden systems coming out of the SW. Kudos to a great call that the Baja Low would be a key feature of this season's LRC. Op Euro maps are eye-candy for NMI and make me wish I could do a chase but my current work schedule won't allow unfortunately. I will say, the "Max snowfall" amount of 25.5" hiding in one of those little dots/blobs would be insane and has to be over-done. Some of the SR models are also robust (in the teen amts) which would be similar to the very heavy 15" storm I had at my place on Nov 5th, 1990 a couple short months after moving in up there. That really trashed a ton of pine trees. Forest near my place looked like a war zone tbh.

This flow will be back and deliver our area the goods.  Once we get the arctic air involved it’ll be a different story.  It sucks being missed but all you can do is look ahead.  Enjoy what ever precip comes out of the skies.

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Models are suggesting there may be a break in the precip for a few hours this evening around here as wave 1 leaves and the defo snow band organizes over central IA.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Any idea when the Euro changes to snow in the DBQ area?

HRRR and Euro both switch DBQ to snow around 6pm, although the best snow won't arrive til after midnight.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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