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Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter


Tom

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Here is the precip forecast for SON...nice plume of moisture for the Plains/OV/Midwest/GL region.  Almost identical to where the JMA placed the heaviest moisture.  Good to see a couple of the models joining forces.  When the new LRC pattern starts to show up, expect to see a parade of systems to traverse the region.

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Post any information here pertaining to next month (October) and into the winter months. In the next 6 weeks or so the winter predictions will be coming out; if they haven't already. Some signals are pointing to a similar pattern to last winter. 

 

Discuss~

 

*Tom - decided those two posts of yours would be best here.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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If this winter's pattern is similar to last winter, hopefully this time around there is a southern branch of the jet stream and/or subtropical jet that brings drought relief to California and the rest of the Southwest, while the Midwest and East continue to get stormy and cold weather that many of you on this subforum enjoy.

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If the pattern is similar to last winter, hopefully later this fall and winter there is a southern branch of the jet stream and/or subtropical jet that brings drought relief to California and the rest of the Southwest, while the Midwest and east continue to get the action and cold weather that many of you on this subforum enjoy.

 

Yeah, there is one thing that is different and that the ENSO value is more neutral at this point. Whether it changes between now and winter remains to be seen. But I know the far western U.S. could use a wet winter!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Another feature that is different this year is that the PDO is positive as opposed to negative, and has been so since January. I believe there is a lag time of nearly a year (at least in the western part of the country) before the atmospheric circulation reacts to a change in PDO. I am not as familiar with the effects of the PDO on Midwestern weather, though.

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Pacific SST's for comparison. 1 year ago vs. present.

Little upwelling or something going on west of the intercoastal, but the Bearing Sea is really cookin' now!

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Pacific SST's for comparison. 1 year ago vs. present.

Little upwelling or something going on west of the intercoastal, but the Bearing Sea is really cookin' now!

 

attachicon.gifseptember_SST_13vs14.png

Ya, the Bearing Sea is definitely the warmest I have seen it.  Something that may promote a lot of ridging this Winter, maybe even more than last year.  JB touched on this subject as well earlier this month and is gun hoe on the possibility of a repeat cold winter.

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CFSv2 starting to indicate some serious shots of cold as we roll on into October.  Take this as guidance, could be sooner or later, but overall the model has been showing some pretty chill air to hit the region as we head into October.  Last year, we didn't see this type of chill till very late in the month.  The point is, the same pattern seems to be evolving like last year when a Blizzard struck in SD/ND and killed so much cattle early in October.  Seems like this year the cold is penetrating deeper.

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Regarding Andrew's post, (you can find it here: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/) we may be on the verge of a serious cold shot as we head into October.  If that is the case, this could be the beginning of the new LRC cycle and may resemble a significant beginning to a wild LRC cycle for this year.  It will be interesting to see how deep and strong this wintry outbreak will be.  I'm already beginning to see the Euro and CFSv2 sniffing this out towards the very end of September.

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Does anyone have a map or chart that shows what the normal dates are for the snow cover to start building in Siberia???

 

Not sure exactly, but maybe this site can give you some idea. This is a link to the data archive of snow cover maps.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Not sure exactly, but maybe this site can give you some idea. This is a link to the data archive of snow cover maps.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html

What is really catching my eye is how cold Siberia is getting and I noticed that the GFS is already painting a snow cover beginning to build mid/late month.  I don't think I have seen it stick that early in the season out that way.  When SSW events take place, that severe cold that builds up in that region gets dislodged come Jan/Feb/Mar.

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The CFSv2 model runs 4x per day and I'm about to show you a very cold evolution for the month of November.  The maps below show the average of ensembles from Last # of Days.  For example, I posted the last 14 days, 7 days, 3 days and the most recent run.  You can clearly see the models evolution and how cold November may in fact turn out to be.  This is a part of my own predictions that many of us may see our first accumulating snows in mid November.  IMO, the culprit to this cold is definitely going to be the very warm waters in the N PAC and the amplified jet stream we saw all to often last winter.

 

Check out the above normal conditions the model is painting right where we saw it last winter in Alaska.  Like JB says, Build the Ridge, unleash the Fridge!

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Just watched JB's video on Wx Bell and he was commenting on the new 3 month forecast.   Surprisingly, the model is showing ridging Oct/Nov before the trough unfolds in December from the Midwest/Lakes/OV/East coast  It is also forecasting a Modiki type weak El Nino centered in the central Pacific which is establishing a sub tropical jet cutting through the SW (even into S Cali).  IMO, this bodes well for a lot of action into the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes as you can get those Pan Handle Hooks to kick out of the SW.  The model is also seeing massive ridging near Alaska which sets up a frigid look if you ask me.

 

This is just preliminary, but I think there may be 2 significant storm tracks that come out of the SW and/or Rockies through the Plains/Midwest/OV/GL.  The 2nd will be along the east coast.  This is very similar to what happened in the late 70's and brought back to back severe winters in the region.  I will always remember the stories my parents used to tell me of how cold and snowy those winters were.  The pictures do not lie!

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This is OBVIOUSLY for shits and giggles, but I have been watching these maps for the past week to get an idea of what the model is "seeing".  Run after run the CFSv2 is showing a very active and COLD pattern for the region in November.  The maps I posted last night for the model's November temp outlook agree with its precip maps.  Could there be early snowfalls in the Plains/Midwest/GL this year???  It's certainly on the table.  IF it does happen, I say IF, this would be a first for me to see in my life.  Just like last year's winter was an experience I'll never forget.

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Here is another look at the new JMA model run going out to December.  Another fast start to winter which I believed would since last winter.  The pattern we are experiencing over the last year and the extremely warm waters in N PAC are the reason.  If the JMA is seeing such massive ridging in the PAC NW/Alaska region this early, it almost locks in what I believe will be another severe winter for many of us.  I'm very optimistic this will be an amazing winter season given the SST's and possible weak modiki El Nino (this is still up in the air).

 

What do you guys think???

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Here is another look at the new JMA model run going out to December.  Another fast start to winter which I believed would since last winter.  The pattern we are experiencing over the last year and the extremely warm waters in N PAC are the reason.  If the JMA is seeing such massive ridging in the PAC NW/Alaska region this early, it almost locks in what I believe will be another severe winter for many of us.  I'm very optimistic this will be an amazing winter season given the SST's and possible weak modiki El Nino (this is still up in the air).

 

What do you guys think???

 

Looks like that particular ridge-trough position would be east of what occurred last winter. Coldest dump of air would probably centered slightly east - say the eastern Great Lakes. If there is an El Niño signal than I think the winter could be a bit warmer than last winter, but still below normal. Mainly because I could see an influence from storms coming out of the southwestern US.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like that particular ridge-trough position would be east of what occurred last winter. Coldest dump of air would probably centered slightly east - say the eastern Great Lakes. If there is an El Niño signal than I think the winter could be a bit warmer than last winter, but still below normal. Mainly because I could see an influence from storms coming out of the southwestern US.

The model could also correct itself east or west with the trough.  One thing I wanted to mention was that last year at this time the JMA saw the cold centered farther east, but eventually went farther west.  Something to keep an eye on.  Also, I do know that El Nino winters typically are colder east and south.  However, since we have the warm N PAC, I think it will dump the cold even farther south this year, esp if we see -NAO develop.  Either way, its going to be a nasty winter IMO. 

 

I also read that some towns are paying a very high premium on salt reserves for their municipalities.  I believe we will be hearing about salt shortages come Jan/Feb.  In a weak economy, cities are going to have to do some serious budgeting for this winter if not already.

 

Edit: Here was the JMA's outlook last year at this time...just look how far east the cold was centered and take a gander how much less ridging it saw in PAC NW compared to this year's run!

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Couple articles on the snowstorm that hit southern Alberta. One thing that it did was flatten the crops there.

 

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/alberta-snowstorm-flattens-crops-harvest/

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-snow-causes-major-power-outages-during-storm-1.2761664

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Share on other sites

The model could also correct itself east or west with the trough.  One thing I wanted to mention was that last year at this time the JMA saw the cold centered farther east, but eventually went farther west.  Something to keep an eye on.  Also, I do know that El Nino winters typically are colder east and south.  However, since we have the warm N PAC, I think it will dump the cold even farther south this year, esp if we see -NAO develop.  Either way, its going to be a nasty winter IMO. 

 

I also read that some towns are paying a very high premium on salt reserves for their municipalities.  I believe we will be hearing about salt shortages come Jan/Feb.  In a weak economy, cities are going to have to do some serious budgeting for this winter if not already.

 

Edit: Here was the JMA's outlook last year at this time...just look how far east the cold was centered and take a gander how much less ridging it saw in PAC NW compared to this year's run!

There's plenty of salt. After what happened at the end of last season, however, someone has gotten greedy. This is gouging.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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There's plenty of salt. After what happened at the end of last season, however, someone has gotten greedy. This is gouging.

 

Probably what will end up happening; if a snowy trend is set early enough, the municipalities will end up mixing sand with the salt. It has been done in this area more than once. I know in 2007-2008 it had to be done come early February!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think the Pacific sst anomaly maps that have been posted recently show one difference I'm curious about.  The 2013 map shows the generally warm northeast Pacific, which is still the case this year, but in 2014 the area east of Japan and the Bering Sea have flipped. Last year the Bering sea was slightly warm with some cool spots, but this year it's very warm.  At the same time, last year east of Japan was very warm, but this year it's cold.  What kind of effect might this change have on this winter compared to last?

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I was just thinking, if it can get this cold in mid September, what kind of potential cold shots are we looking at in say... November!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yes i know its hr 384. However, I find something interesting. Could that L in the gulf of Alaska be the culprit of the big cold shot Andrew was talking about late sept-early oct? Are the models maybe sniffing it out?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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I think the Pacific sst anomaly maps that have been posted recently show one difference I'm curious about.  The 2013 map shows the generally warm northeast Pacific, which is still the case this year, but in 2014 the area east of Japan and the Bering Sea have flipped. Last year the Bering sea was slightly warm with some cool spots, but this year it's very warm.  At the same time, last year east of Japan was very warm, but this year it's cold.  What kind of effect might this change have on this winter compared to last?

The colder waters east of Japan suggest cold/stormy weather which can translate to storminess in the eastern U.S. using the East Asian Theory.  In the Bearing Sea, having such warm waters to me would suggest a lot more ridging and buckle the Jetstream up and around that warm water which would unload the cold into the U.S.  We could be seeing many more storm systems this winter than last year.  Even though last year we had many clippers and weaker/progressive systems that came consistently.  I believe we will yet again have series of Clipper Trains but this year more developed juicier systems coming out of the Plaines/SW.

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I was just thinking, if it can get this cold in mid September, what kind of potential cold shots are we looking at in say... November!

I was thinking about that the other day when looking at the CFSv2 a couple days ago.  It felt like mid November out there today.  IMO, Mother Nature is about 1-2 months ahead of schedule and its only going to get worse.

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Here is a nice map of the SST's in the Pacific.  Check out the bullseye of warmth in NE Pacific, warm waters all along the Alaskan coastline (Bearing Sea) and more importantly the cooler waters organizing near Japan.  This is obviously a very important factor if you want to see storminess in the eastern U.S.  The cards are being dealt by Mother Nature...could she be setting up a Royal Flush for this Winter???

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Just read a nice write up from JB on Wx Bell regarding his thinking on this upcoming Winter.  The infamous winter of '76/77 is being used as one of the heavily weighted analogs.  One of the reasons he is jumping on that analog so early is because of the similar eastern Pacific Hurricane threat we are seeing this summer compared to 1976.   He also mentioned how the CFSv2 is going nuts with severe cold starting in November!

 

I did some research and read a nice article written by the NWS back on November 1977 regarding the most severe winters that hit the U.S. through November 1977 which were 1917/18 and 1976-77.  In this article it speaks of the highly amplified jet stream that evolved over NW NAMER that unloaded the PV into the U.S caused by the SST's in the NE Pacific which resemble what we have right now.  What is intriguing and may be something we should watch out for is that the NWS indicated that by November 1976 the eastern U.S. began to see very cold outbreaks that began to hit the nation.  The rest is history.  The GL/OV region averaged -8F for that winter which is unprecedented.  Last year our region averaged -6F, +/- .5F.  I can't imagine experiencing a colder Winter than last year.  If the snow comes with it, bring it!

 

Since the CFSv2 is forecasting a very cold month in November, I find it rather interesting to see the similarities lining up for this upcoming Winter.  I will paste the article below:

 

http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No4/1977v002no04-Wagner.pdf

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Just read a nice write up from JB on Wx Bell regarding his thinking on this upcoming Winter.  The infamous winter of '76/77 is being used as one of the heavily weighted analogs.  One of the reasons he is jumping on that analog so early is because of the similar eastern Pacific Hurricane threat we are seeing this summer compared to 1976.  .....

 

... article written by the NWS back on November 1977 regarding the most severe winters that hit the U.S. through November 1977 which were 1917/18 and 1976-77.

 

If anyone's going to trust in an analog relative to this point and where looking ahead to winter, ...  

 

(i.e. either whether "buy", or point to, depending on their appreciation of value of the idea more generally.)

 

.. 1976-77 is probably a pretty logical choice. 

 

Does the article that you've mentioned more initially above, mention anything about the drought status where looking at California both then and now. ? .. This with of course California's having dealt with a fairly severe draught back in 1976. - 197608 pdsi.gif

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/historical-palmers.php?index=psi&month%5B%5D=6&beg_year=1976&end_year=1976&submitted=Submit

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

---
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If anyone's going to trust in an analog relative to this point and where looking ahead to winter, ...  

 

(i.e. either whether "buy", or point to, depending on their appreciation of value of the idea more generally.)

 

.. 1976-77 is probably a pretty logical choice. 

 

Does the article that you've mentioned more initially above, mention anything about the drought status where looking at California both then and now. ? .. This with of course California's having dealt with a fairly severe draught back in 1976. - 197608 pdsi.gif

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/historical-palmers.php?index=psi&month%5B%5D=6&beg_year=1976&end_year=1976&submitted=Submit

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

This article was written back in November 1977, so no reference to the current drought.  You are right that the drought back in 1976 and 1977 were severe as well.  The northern Sierra's had it real bad.

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I'm sorry Tom. ... "write up .. from JB on Wx Bell regarding his thinking on this upcoming Winter."

 

I'm guessing now that this had been posted otherwise, to another discussion forum .... 

Wx Bell is not a discussion forum.  It's a company site that you subscribe to.  Are you familiar with it?  Joe Bastardi is a well known meteorologist and also specializes in long range forecasting.

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