Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[Tom]

CFS starting to get colder and colder for the whole month of October.  Several cold shots that hit the region throughout the month, but the most intense one coming around the 10th/11th.  Similar look to the 12z GFS run yesterday with widespread freezes in the midsection of the nation.  This one correlates well with the big Typhoon spinning up near Japan on the 29th.

 

This model seems to keep troughiness in the Upper Midwest/Midwest/GL region the whole month.  November it gets very cold.  First week of November may have highs near Freezing for quiet a stretch.  If this is the pattern we are getting ourselves into...I can only imagine what to expect come Dec-Feb.

[Geos]

Nice maps Tom!

That system on the 5th of October looks interesting and big! Will be great once we can track some more active weather.

 

Well worth reading --- http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

Blog post talks about mainly phase 8 MJO winter! That's a cold phase.

 

 

[james1976]

I love Andrew's posts. Always very well explained. I love how the trend is looking for this winter. I have a feeling this current perfect weather pattern we are in is just the calm before the storm. We will pay for this!

[Tom]

I feel that a lot of this nation is going to experience one of the more incredible winters we have seen since the late 50's and 70's.  It could even possibly get ranked as a Top 5 winter or better over the last 100 years.  Just using some of the analogs mets are throwing out there and how the atmosphere is poised to set up for this winter it should be a memorable one.  The last run of the JAMSTEC fore warned us of how long and persistent this winter can be....starting early and ending late in the Spring. This could devastate the economy and consumers may spend a lot less during the holidays and heating bills will go through the roof lowering disposable income.  It happened last year, and this year may be another repeat.  There are still a lot of ppl hurting for work and even out of work.  If another astounding winter hits this nation, it could do a lot more near term and long term damage.

 

We also shouldn't forget the drought that is plaguing Cali and the west coast.  If that powerhouse ridge develops over NW NAMER, it'll just make it that much worse.  Hopefully they get some relief over the next 1-2 months.

[Tom]

I'll show you last week's JMA run with the ridge over the U.S. week 2 & 3....now it has the ridge over NW NAMER.\

 

 

Edit: There is also nice blocking over the top and near Greenland

[Geos]

I feel that a lot of this nation is going to experience one of the more incredible winters we have seen since the late 50's and 70's.  It could even possibly get ranked as a Top 5 winter or better over the last 100 years.  Just using some of the analogs mets are throwing out there and how the atmosphere is poised to set up for this winter it should be a memorable one.  The last run of the JAMSTEC fore warned us of how long and persistent this winter can be....starting early and ending late in the Spring. This could devastate the economy and consumers may spend a lot less during the holidays and heating bills will go through the roof lowering disposable income.  It happened last year, and this year may be another repeat.  There are still a lot of ppl hurting for work and even out of work.  If another astounding winter hits this nation, it could do a lot more near term and long term harm.

 

We also shouldn't forget the drought that is plaguing Cali and the west coast.  If that powerhouse ridge develops over NW NAMER, it'll just make it that much worse.  Hopefully they get some relief over the next 1-2 months.

 

I've been thinking along the same lines as well. Last winter definitely had an impact on the country in more than one way. Two winters like this in a row is going to slow the economy further. Fuel and heating costs were nuts last winter! I know people that were having trouble paying those heating bills last winter.

Looking at all the solar activity data, the future could definitely be cooler and that doesn't bode well with agriculutural interests. We had some solar activity last winter, but we are on the downward slope now and cycle 25 is supposed to be next to nothing in terms of sunspot activity.

 

Current graph-

Imagine if we would have had 2009 levels of sunspot activity last winter!

 

[Tom]

I've been thinking along the same lines as well. Last winter definitely had an impact on the country in more than one way. Two winters like this in a row is going to slow the economy further. Fuel and heating costs were nuts last winter! I know people that were having trouble paying those heating bills last winter.

Looking at all the solar activity data, the future could definitely be cooler and that doesn't bode well with agriculutural interests. We had some solar activity last winter, but we are on the downward slope now and cycle 25 is supposed to be next to nothing in terms of sunspot activity.

 

Current graph-

Imagine if we would have had 2009 levels of sunspot activity last winter!

 

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

The good ol' sun is going to sleep....Zzzzzzzzz

 

One of these winters over the next 3 years is going to be a non winter over the east and the west will have their fun and games.  Until then, I'm going to enjoy them while they last.  I'm sure there will be plenty more exciting winters in the future as the sun goes to sleep and the planet continues to cool.

 

I do think fuel costs and heating costs will sky rocket this year.  If anything happens to the supply of natural gas and the demand goes through the roof, it doesn't take an economist to figure out what will happen to prices.  Not only that, but cars/houses/etc will take a beating and get a ton of wear and tear.

 

I'm posting the JMA Dec-Feb seasonal outlook below....monster NW Ridge and Eastern 2/3 trough.  This is almost identical to the Euro's seasonal outlook as well.

[james1976]

Wow GEOS....thats quite the graph. Downhill for a while it looks.
Also, I have a question. I should prolly know the answer since I've read enough blogs etc. What is NW NAMER??? Is it the western states or something?

[Tom]

Wow GEOS....thats quite the graph. Downhill for a while it looks.

Also, I have a question. I should prolly know the answer since I've read enough blogs etc. What is NW NAMER??? Is it the western states or something?

NW NAMER means...Northwest North America in short...pretty much near the Yukon of Alaska/NW Territories of Canada and you can even consider western Canada.

[james1976]

No signs of any cold on 12z GFS.....complete opposite run from 6z.

[Geos]

No signs of any cold on 12z GFS.....complete opposite run from 6z.

 

Typical model run flip flopping! haha

 

I would side with cooler than normal starting late next week for the region.

[Tom]

CFS continues to see a big cool off around October 10-15th...pretty deep trough and chilly temps.  These kind of temps would be wild for so early in the season.  I'm posting daytime high temps.  Even if you add 5-10 degrees to these temps its still very cold for early October standards.

[Geos]

CFS continues to see a big cool off around October 10-15th...pretty deep trough and chilly temps.  These kind of temps would be wild for so early in the season.  I'm posting daytime high temps.  Even if you add 5-10 degrees to these temps its still very cold for early October standards.

 

Wow, highs in the 30s! That would be totally crazy. If that were to happen the trees won't take that well and would drop there leaves sooner. Hopefully near peak to peak colors last a couple weeks before it gets too cold.

[james1976]

a lot of leaves coming down here. quite a bit of color developing too.

[Hawkeye]

Last night's euro went mild through 10 days and beyond, but now this morning's run brings the cold back even stronger with a huge trough parked over the eastern US.  The models are struggling a bit.

[Geos]

The models tend to struggle with the changing seasons. Nothing new there.

 

Snow cover in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago is a bit above normal right now.

 

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2014&ui_day=268&ui_set=2

[Tom]

Last night's euro went mild through 10 days and beyond, but now this morning's run brings the cold back even stronger with a huge trough parked over the eastern US.  The models are struggling a bit.

Just took a look at the 12z Euro ensemble run and it really loads up the cold around the 9th/10th in the Upper Midwest and Canada.  The ensembles don't penetrate that far south like the CFS is showing, but this is normal as the members are not totally in agreement that far out.  I'm thinking it will start to look like the CFS given the pattern setting up and the big Typhoon hitting near Japan around the 29th.

 

Also, the recent JMA run indicated a week 2 trough around this time frame.

[james1976]

I think the cold is coming in October. Just to what extent is the bigger question. We know it isnt gonna be 80.

[Tom]

Not sure how much effect this would have, if any, to the upcoming winter...but check out this video these hikers captured when the Mt. Ontake volcano in Japan erupted!  I would be freaked out!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ea3uED1Zgc&feature=youtu.be

[Tom]

CFS continues to open up November like it is December.  A nice active flow from the Rockies into the Lakes may develop early on in the month.  I have been seeing this pattern over and over again with this model.  Could be the first accumulating snows very early in the season in portions of the Plains/Midwest.  November is looking wild!  Just look at all that cold air brewing.

 

Edit: Just look at where all the cold air is positioned.  Does it look familiar??  Sure does, the last run of the JAMSTEC models Dec-Feb temp forecast.

[james1976]

Not sure how much effect this would have, if any, to the upcoming winter...but check out this video these hikers captured when the Mt. Ontake volcano in Japan erupted!  I would be freaked out!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ea3uED1Zgc&feature=youtu.be

thats scary, i wonder how they turned out.

[james1976]

CFS continues to open up November like it is December.  A nice active flow from the Rockies into the Lakes may develop early on in the month.  I have been seeing this pattern over and over again with this model.  Could be the first accumulating snows very early in the season in portions of the Plains/Midwest.  November is looking wild!  Just look at all that cold air brewing.

 

Edit: Just look at where all the cold air is positioned.  Does it look familiar??  Sure does, the last run of the JAMSTEC models Dec-Feb temp forecast.

That is cold! That is winter-like temps.

[Geos]

Not sure how much effect this would have, if any, to the upcoming winter...but check out this video these hikers captured when the Mt. Ontake volcano in Japan erupted!  I would be freaked out!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ea3uED1Zgc&feature=youtu.be

 

That's not cool getting caught in volcanic ash fallout!

There is so much volcanic activity going on in the northern hemisphere - it's significant. The Iceland volcanic eruptions have been pumping quite a bit of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere, which is a well known atmospheric coolant (acts as an aerosol - and brightens the clouds).

[Tom]

That's not cool getting caught in volcanic ash fallout!

There is so much volcanic activity going on in the northern hemisphere - it's significant. The Iceland volcanic eruptions have been pumping quite a bit of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere, which is a well known atmospheric coolant (acts as an aerosol - and brightens the clouds).

I agree, and we shouldn't forget the volcano that erupted in the tropics near Australia a couple weeks ago.  I'd have to think that this will somehow effect the northern latitudes and could even possibly generate more cold air.

[Geos]

This is well worth readings regarding the Icelandic eruptions. Couple months for effects... just in time for winter!

 

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/sulphur-pollution-detected-northern-france-video/
 

 

According to the Icelandic Environment Agency, Holuhraun is emitting 60,000 tons of SO₂ per day, far exceeding all pollution SO2 emitted by transport, energy, home heating in all Europe, which is an average of 14,000 tonnes per day.

 

[Tom]

This is well worth readings regarding the Icelandic eruptions. Couple months for effects... just in time for winter!

 

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/sulphur-pollution-detected-northern-france-video/

 

 

This is well worth readings regarding the Icelandic eruptions. Couple months for effects... just in time for winter!

 

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/sulphur-pollution-detected-northern-france-video/

 

That's a ridiculous amount of sulfur being pumped into the atmosphere...4x the amount per day for all of Europe combined???  Pretty extraordinary.  I'm wondering if that will produce more blocking in the northern latitudes or even Stratospheric Warming Events higher up in the atmosphere.

[The Snowman]

There are several sulfur heavy eruptions going on right now, but it's going to be a few months before we see anything worthwhile.

Agreed, think the general premise is that for any volcanoes that allow ash to reach high up, there's a delay of several months to around a year for noticeable effects.

[The Snowman]

Lower stratospheric temperatures maintaining average to above-average anomalies in the last few weeks. This, combined with warmer than normal temperatures in the upper Arctic, as well as a sustained negative QBO, suggests an uphill battle for the polar vortex this winter.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2014/ims2014270.gifthe only reason i am putting this on here is i have noticed that siberia is starting to build on their snowpack.

[Tom]

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2014/ims2014270.gifthe only reason i am putting this on here is i have noticed that siberia is starting to build on their snowpack.

I've been following that myself as well.  It certainly is building the snow cover very quickly this year.  Over the next 2 weeks it expands farther west in Siberia and NW Canada along with the Archipelago regions get their fair share of snow.

 

Speaking of NW Canada, within the next 2 weeks, the last few runs of the Euro ensembles start building ridging up near Alaska and the Yukon.  This is significant because then your tapping into true arctic air that will start building up there and those cold fronts eventually make it down south.  I think the 2nd punch of cold coming around the 10th will be more significant and just the beginning of what could be several shots of cold air in October.  Looking out near Japan, there are a series of storm systems to affect the region and some big troughs that come down from eastern Siberia/Asia.

[Tom]

CFS keeps on seriously building that reservoir of arctic air as we roll into November.  A majority of Canada should be filled up with a snow cover by then!  Incredible...the signs to a serious blockbuster Winter continue!

 

 

[james1976]

Andrew has some great new posts on the upcoming Winter
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Long range forecasting is seriously a joke in terms of accuracy. Look at what happened in 2011-12. I put little stock in forecasting until we're within a week, except once the LRC pattern has been established.

[james1976]

The new LRC begins in October...and October is looking cold and quite active.

[Tom]

Long range forecasting is seriously a joke in terms of accuracy. Look at what happened in 2011-12. I put little stock in forecasting until we're within a week, except once the LRC pattern has been established.

You have a valid point, however, I'm going to show you why that year busted so bad.  I'm posting the SST's back in 2011 from Aug-Nov and you will clearly see the massive flip in the water temps  in the NE Pacific back then.  You can see that the waters were warmer farther west leaving the west coast and Alaska coast exposed to colder than normal waters and a stormier pattern from August into September, once October hit the Aleution Low set up and stayed persistent for the duration of that winter and Spring.  The LRC pattern that year was clearly set up from Oct-Nov which resulted in the blow torch winter for 2011-12.

 

 

Edit:  You can also even use the East Asian Theory for that year and take a gander at all that warm water near Japan which promotes ridging.

[Tom]

I just read JB's post on Wx Bell and he is now becoming more convinced of the pattern changing in the week 2-3 period where a more pronounced ridge is looking to develop in NW NAMER.  JB didn't believe in this pattern shaping up so early in the season...that is where I disagreed with him bc a couple weeks ago he believed there would be a sustained ridge over the central/eastern U.S.  I don't think he knows about the LRC or even how it even works.  This, to me, may be the advantage I feel that Gary Lezak has compared to other mets. 

 

Now that he is beginning to see this potential pattern change and the source region of our cold coming from the Arctic, instead of the Pacific, the cold shots coming will have much more "punch".  Add to that a building snow cover up there...you are setting yourself up for early season snow potential and breaking record lows.

[Tom]

What are your guys opinions for this upcoming winter season???  In all honesty, to me it seems the atmosphere is setting up a Royal Flush.

[james1976]

What are your guys opinions for this upcoming winter season???  In all honesty, to me it seems the atmosphere is setting up a Royal Flush.

I think it will rival last year. All long range signals seem to point toward that. At least everything I've seen. If there is a bigtime NW flow then we would be affected more by clippers, like last year. I'm hoping we get more bigger systems from the SW and the Rockies, as well.

[Geos]

CFS keeps on seriously building that reservoir of arctic air as we roll into November.  A majority of Canada should be filled up with a snow cover by then!  Incredible...the signs to a serious blockbuster Winter continue!

 

That's a big cold reservoir! 

[Niko]

I dont see how this upcoming winter can be any more severe then what my area experienced last winter. I mean, think about it, is that possible?!! Perhaps colder temperatures, but in terms of snowfall, all records were broken last year, unless, we get more than 95inches of snowfall this year and we break another new record.