Desert Winter

[Coco-nut]

While I absolutely love the fall in Flagstaff and its surroundings, this is the time that a young man's (cough cough) fancy turns to winter and the possibility of winter storms.  And with the possibility of even a weak El Nino, it could mean some good storms roll through.

 

I don't have the skills to begin to make a winter forecast for here or any where, just my hopeful wish casting. I was looking over winter climate data for Flagstaff on a basic level, I was amazed at how much more snow we've had on average over the last 50 years than during the 50 years before that.

 

Any thoughts about the desert southwest this winter, especially the High country around the Mogollon Rim?

[Black Hole]

I think the subtropical jet will eventually get going, which is the mechanism for your good winter storms down there. Hopefully it all works out.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I think the subtropical jet will eventually get going, which is the mechanism for your good winter storms down there. Hopefully it all works out.

I think one of the problems with last winter is that the subtropical jet was weak to nonexistent. Also the MJO was not active, which was one of the factors that I felt led to less variability in the weather pattern.

[Coco-nut]

Last winter sure did suck.  

 

Next time I talk with one of my friends who is a geek about weather I will mention this place.  I know a professional Met., but I am not sure if he would be interested.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Last winter sure did suck.

 

Next time I talk with one of my friends who is a geek about weather I will mention this place.  I know a professional Met., but I am not sure if he would be interested.

I would encourage him to post on here if he is interested. I may even have some weather related questions for him at some point in time if he decides to join the forum. I usually post in the California subforum, but do post here on occasion regarding desert weather, especially the monsoon season.

 

Last winter, in my opinion, was one of the worst I have experienced in Socal due to the extreme lack of rain and the very warm conditions that went along with it. We have really had some dud winters since the beginning of this century, and they include 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, and of course this year. 2006-07 did have a major cold snap during mid January, but even a cold snap is not a substitute for good storms.

[Black Hole]

Please recommend anybody you can! I will post to keep him entertained since my forum is quiet haha

[Dan the Weatherman]

Please recommend anybody you can! I will post to keep him entertained since my forum is quiet haha

You may even have some weather-related questions for him at some point in time as well.