October 2014 observations and discussion

[Tom]

12z GFS agreeing with Euro on the depth of the chill to hit Fri-Tue.  Models getting colder it seems with these cold shots as we get closer.  Last week they were nearly as chilly.  If that's the case and the models begin to read the depth of the blocking, we could be seeing a very intense shot after the 10th.

[Tom]

CFSv2 was warm for the month of October in our region over the last couple weeks, but as is the case with this model, once you get closer to the target month it gets colder.  It's probably a feedback problem it is having in the models physics.  Nonetheless, its def picking up on the cold building in Canada and I would expect that snow cover to build in earnest as we roll on into next month.  The archipelago region is already above normal for this time of year.

[james1976]

Local met is now saying it may not get to 50 in Northern Iowa this Saturday! Yeah, everything is trending colder as we get closer.

[james1976]

I'm getting that itch to track that first snow maker. Love this time of year with the anticipation building.

This weekend looks to be awesome fall-like weather. Leaves will be nice and colorful and coming down. I will definitely be having a bonfire.

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, for this weekend it appears the cold won.  Hopefully, clouds and wind will keep us from dropping below the mid 30s.

[Tom]

12z Euro is bringing a serious shot of cold this weekend.  High temps in IA/WI/MN/NW IL in the mid/upper 40's...Sunday aint pretty as well with a resurging shot Sunday night (coldest night) into Monday with highs back in the 40's!

[tim the weatherman]

12z Euro is bringing a serious shot of cold this weekend.  High temps in IA/WI/MN/NW IL in the mid/upper 40's...Sunday aint pretty as well with a resurging shot Sunday night (coldest night) into Monday with highs back in the 40's!

this could be nighttime temps in the 30s or 20s.

[Tom]

this could be nighttime temps in the 30s or 20s.

Upper 30's yes, 20's prob not...there may be too much cloud cover.  In any case, it will be chilly for sure.

 

 

In the meantime, I prob just witnessed one of the coldest runs yet on the CFS for a November open.  I mean, this would be equivalent to end of December normal highs!  This would be a top 5 coldest open to November if this panned out.  Something the CFSv2 has been hinting at for a while now.

 

Edit: These maps are from Nov 1st thru the 12th.

[Geos]

CFSv2 was warm for the month of October in our region over the last couple weeks, but as is the case with this model, once you get closer to the target month it gets colder.  It's probably a feedback problem it is having in the models physics.  Nonetheless, its def picking up on the cold building in Canada and I would expect that snow cover to build in earnest as we roll on into next month.  The archipelago region is already above normal for this time of year.

 

That's really substantial. Converts to -3.6-4.5° from normal.

 

this could be nighttime temps in the 30s or 20s.

 

Long as the winds die down and it is mostly clear. 

Growing season here is 160 days so far, doubt it makes it to 170.

[james1976]

Upper 30's yes, 20's prob not...there may be too much cloud cover.  In any case, it will be chilly for sure.

 

 

In the meantime, I prob just witnessed one of the coldest runs yet on the CFS for a November open.  I mean, this would be equivalent to end of December normal highs!  This would be a top 5 coldest open to November if this panned out.  Something the CFSv2 has been hinting at for a while now.

 

Edit: These maps are from Nov 1st thru the 12th.

Are these 2 meter temps?

[james1976]

GFS flipping back to a cold outlook. 18z run is cold and active.

[Tom]

Are these 2 meter temps?

Yes, that would be 2 meter temps in Celcius...high temps for each day.

[Tom]

After observing the 18z GFS run, it's fun watching that SLP spin to the north of Lake Superior from Sun-Thursday of the following week on the 18z GFS run.  Just goes to show you how much atmospheric blocking there is going on.  This is by far a very different look than we saw last year.  The new LRC pattern setting up certainly is showing a slower moving and much less progressive pattern.  I like the looks of it.  This is a golden pattern to have in the winter months.

[Niko]

My high temps keep getting colder and colder for Saturday. Now, my local mets are calling for daytime highs not getting outta the 40's and lows in the mid 30s. Ouch!!!! Hello October!

[Niko]

After observing the 18z GFS run, it's fun watching that SLP spin to the north of Lake Superior from Sun-Thursday of the following week on the 18z GFS run.  Just goes to show you how much atmospheric blocking there is going on.  This is by far a very different look than we saw last year.  The new LRC pattern setting up certainly is showing a slower moving and much less progressive pattern.  I like the looks of it.  This is a golden pattern to have in the winter months.

[james1976]

After observing the 18z GFS run, it's fun watching that SLP spin to the north of Lake Superior from Sun-Thursday of the following week on the 18z GFS run.  Just goes to show you how much atmospheric blocking there is going on.  This is by far a very different look than we saw last year.  The new LRC pattern setting up certainly is showing a slower moving and much less progressive pattern.  I like the looks of it.  This is a golden pattern to have in the winter months.

I seen that. Is that a cutoff low?

[Tom]

After reading Andrew's new post on his site (http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/) it got me thinking about the CFS maps I posted today and over the past week or so.  If the stratosphere is already beginning to show signs of abnormally warm air, maybe the CFS is right about sniffing out a brutal start to the winter in early November!  It makes sense if you ask me.  Here is the link to the 30mb level...amazing to see how much warm air is developing in various layers of the atmosphere this early on.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

I seen that. Is that a cutoff low?

Ya, sometimes they are referred to Hudson Bay low's in the Winter time.  It's a perfect placement if you want sustained cold to funnel systems with enough cold air to produce snow.  In November we will be paying more attn to this set up.

[Niko]

Hopefully, when the CF passes on by on Friday, it will trigger some severe weather. I havent had much thunderstorm activity this past summer, so, I can use some action, in terms of lightning, loud thunder, torential downpours and damaging wind gusts. I remember back in June, when, a very nice cell passed over my area and produced 80mph winds gusts and 1.5inches of hail accumulated. The only downside of that storm was that we lost power for 3 days. Outside it looked like it had snowed. What an awesome scene that was.

[Geos]

After reading Andrew's new post on his site (http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/) it got me thinking about the CFS maps I posted today and over the past week or so.  If the stratosphere is already beginning to show signs of abnormally warm air, maybe the CFS is right about sniffing out a brutal start to the winter in early November!  It makes sense if you ask me.  Here is the link to the 30mb level...amazing to see how much warm air is developing in various layers of the atmosphere this early on.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

Very interesting blog post. If warming is starting this early, the polar vortex might be totally confined to the troposphere and it will likely be weak at that.

I think this winter is going to be a beast like last winter! Might even exceed last winters snowfall if the southern jet stream can play a role.

 

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I can't see all the data yet, but I heard the NAM at the end of the run is showing snow across WI.

 

[Tom]

Very interesting blog post. If warming is starting this early, the polar vortex might be totally confined to the troposphere and it will likely be weak at that.

I think this winter is going to be a beast like last winter! Might even exceed last winters snowfall if the southern jet stream can play a role.

 

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I can't see all the data yet, but I heard the NAM at the end of the run is showing snow across WI.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

The CFSv2 is painting a bit of snow in N WI as well.  Might have some snow flakes in the air later this week in the Wisco!

[Tom]

Geo's, I agree, if that southern jet can spin up some powerhouse systems and not to mention some hybrid clippers out of Saskatchewan, this winter could rival last and be something special for a lot of this region.  Unlike last year where it was really scattered and centralized.  It seems there were many holes of insignificant snowfalls like in IA/ C & S WI. 

 

[Tom]

Both GFS and Euro have a major Typhoon hitting Japan around the 6th so I'd expect a major trough around the 12th-16th.  The cold coming this weekend has correlated really well from the much weaker system that hit Japan earlier this month.  Given the magnitude of this next Typhoon, one would expect the trough to come in stronger.  There seems to be hyper activity in the western pacific and would suggest a cold and stormy month.

[Geos]

Chance of rain & snow in the forecast for far northern WI and the UP of Michigan on Saturday night. First time for the "S" word in forecasts for Midwest this season!

[james1976]

Geo's, I agree, if that southern jet can spin up some powerhouse systems and not to mention some hybrid clippers out of Saskatchewan, this winter could rival last and be something special for a lot of this region.  Unlike last year where it was really scattered and centralized.  It seems there were many holes of insignificant snowfalls like in IA/ C & S WI. 

Not in this part of Iowa. I was 1.4" from setting my all-time snowfall record. We didnt really get any bigtime snowmakers......but a ton of clippers that dropped a few inches at a time. Really piled up.

[Geos]

Not in this part of Iowa. I was 1.4" from setting my all-time snowfall record. We didnt really get any bigtime snowmakers......but a ton of clippers that dropped a few inches at a time. Really piled up.

 

Yeah you were in a sweet spot. I think it was further south of your area that was short changed. Then from southwest of Chicago and into southern MI was another jackpot zone all winter.

 

0z NAM knifes the cold air in at the end of the run.

 

[Tom]

Insane run on the 00z GFS...I think it just went Koo koo for Cocoa Puffs!  That's a head scratcher if this type of pattern repeats in the winter.  It just keeps getting colder and colder.  It's no wonder the CFSv2 is painting snows in early November around these parts.  If this month pans out even close to what its showing now, I bet ppl will start waking up to how severe this winter will be.

[Geos]

Saturday early morning look really raw on the GFS. Near 40° and a steady rain on the back side of the low!

[Tom]

Saturday early morning look really raw on the GFS. Near 40° and a steady rain on the back side of the low!

Saw that, looking real fall like this weekend.  I think a lot of leaves will be changing color rapidly.  On the 00z Euro Sunday night and Monday night look the chillies around here.  Some upper 30's showing up.

[Tom]

Off the charts drop in the AO like we have seen before in Mar-Apr 2012 when we had that back loaded winter.  IF this is a sign of things to come, there will be no mercy this winter.

[Tom]

I'm starting to think about keeping an eye out at some wintry storm systems mid month with that 2nd true shot of early season arctic air. For now, I think the models are getting a better handle on it but temps I believe will be trending colder (even thought they are being predicted very chilly now).  Just look at what is happening with the temps this weekend into early next week.

[james1976]

12z GFS has a lot of blocking going on. Low pressure system's are stalling out in Canada.

[Tom]

Looks like our first Frosts Advisory will be posted for Friday and Saturday nights around here and the NW burbs.  Mid/upper 30's are being forecasted at ORD.

[Hawkeye]

Today's rain was a bust.  The moisture got held up farther south/southwest.  Southwest Iowa got 2-3 inches and the Lincoln, NE area got 5-8 inches.

[Tom]

CFS continues getting colder and very stormy sometime mid month period.  An absurd amount of cold in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest around the 18th-21st!  This map would suggest a possible winter storm, may be the first of the season.  Something I mentioned earlier today that we have to watch out for.  First model picking this up and if we use the Typhoon Rule, I think the model may be on to something.

 

These are 2m high temps in Celcius...

Edit: The 3rd map would be night time lows, just wanted to show you that as well..

[The Snowman]

Both GFS and Euro have a major Typhoon hitting Japan around the 6th so I'd expect a major trough around the 12th-16th.  The cold coming this weekend has correlated really well from the much weaker system that hit Japan earlier this month.  Given the magnitude of this next Typhoon, one would expect the trough to come in stronger.  There seems to be hyper activity in the western pacific and would suggest a cold and stormy month.

Just made a post about it as well: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/october-11-15-potential-winter-storm.html

 

Latest 18z GFS has the typhoon hitting the midsection of Japan, another typhoon forming well to the south. Fun stuff.

[Tom]

Just made a post about it as well: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/october-11-15-potential-winter-storm.html

 

Latest 18z GFS has the typhoon hitting the midsection of Japan, another typhoon forming well to the south. Fun stuff.

18z GFS showing the potential lower lakes cutter nicely....

[Jaycee]

Been awhile since I've been in here. Figured I'd give my input on yesterday though. Neighbors rain gauge measured 7.62" rain last night! Unbelievable. There was deep water everywhere around my neighborhood. Didn't think I'd be able to say I'd ever see that amount of rain in a 24 hour period.  If this would've been winter, we would've been absolutely buried. Incredible rainfall totals here, with more on the way tomorrow and tonight. Seriously so stoked for this winter, have a really good feeling about it!

[james1976]

Just made a post about it as well: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/october-11-15-potential-winter-storm.html

 

Latest 18z GFS has the typhoon hitting the midsection of Japan, another typhoon forming well to the south. Fun stuff.

Are we seriously talking about the possibility of a winter storm in mid October???!! AMAZING!

AND.....keep in mind, the new LRC will be taking shape.

[james1976]

GFS continues to show a lot of blocking as well.