October 2014 observations and discussion

[Tom]

Skilling has lowered Saturday's temps to a whopping 46F!  Certainly looks like a real autumnal weekend on tap with frosts likely.  Been noticing a lot of bright vibrant colors on the trees after this long stretch of nice weather.  More than likely they will be blown off the trees after the high winds on Friday from this deepening storm system to hit the Upper Lakes.

[Tom]

Skilling's RPM model had a huge squall line coming through N IL/S WI tomorrow evening around 6:30pm.  Could be some severe wx to contend with and some heavy rains.  HRRR model showing some deep moisture as well.

[Geos]

Been awhile since I've been in here. Figured I'd give my input on yesterday though. Neighbors rain gauge measured 7.62" rain last night! Unbelievable. There was deep water everywhere around my neighborhood. Didn't think I'd be able to say I'd ever see that amount of rain in a 24 hour period.  If this would've been winter, we would've been absolutely buried. Incredible rainfall totals here, with more on the way tomorrow and tonight. Seriously so stoked for this winter, have a really good feeling about it!

 

Well I guess your drought is over with! At least I sure hope it is after all that rain!

[Geos]

Skilling has lowered Saturday's temps to a whopping 46F!  Certainly looks like a real autumnal weekend on tap with frosts likely.  Been noticing a lot of bright vibrant colors on the trees after this long stretch of nice weather.  More than likely they will be blown off the trees after the high winds on Friday from this deepening storm system to hit the Upper Lakes.

 

I saw that. Growing season is coming to a screeching halt for a lot of the Midwest and Plains this weekend.

 

18z and 0z NAM is showing snow shower activity way south.

 

 

Sounding SE of MSN.

 

[james1976]

DMX has highs back into the 70s next week. Hmm.

[Tom]

00z NAM prob overdone with the cold Saturday night...this run got colder from 18z run though.

[Geos]

DMX has highs back into the 70s next week. Hmm.

 

Here's ya go James! Not all the far from you.

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Skilling has lowered Saturday's temps to a whopping 46F!  Certainly looks like a real autumnal weekend on tap with frosts likely.  Been noticing a lot of bright vibrant colors on the trees after this long stretch of nice weather.  More than likely they will be blown off the trees after the high winds on Friday from this deepening storm system to hit the Upper Lakes.

That's a high temperature more typical of around Thanksgiving for your area, right? Meanwhile temperatures in inland Orange County (Socal) for Saturday are forecast to be from 99 to 104 with a bit of a Santa Ana wind. I don't believe there possibly can be much more of a contrast this time of year between the two regions!

 

I am really hoping for a southern jet this winter in which we get rain to help relieve the drought in CA, while you continue to get the cold air outbreaks much like what happened in the late 1970's, especially 1977-78 and 1978-79.

[james1976]

Here's ya go James! Not all the far from you.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4NC_0z/cld60.gif

That would be awesome!

[james1976]

GFS trending back warmer after this weekend. Whats Euro showing lately?

[Tom]

That's a high temperature more typical of around Thanksgiving for your area, right? Meanwhile temperatures in inland Orange County (Socal) for Saturday are forecast to be from 99 to 104 with a bit of a Santa Ana wind. I don't believe there possibly can be much more of a contrast this time of year between the two regions!

 

I am really hoping for a southern jet this winter in which we get rain to help relieve the drought in CA, while you continue to get the cold air outbreaks much like what happened in the late 1970's, especially 1977-78 and 1978-79.

Quite the contrast for sure!  Just like we have seen all last winter/spring.  I'm betting on the southern jet to be active as well and this should help the southern half of Cali get the moisture that they desperately need.  With all the warm waters near the western coast of Mexico and the Baja along with a central based potential weak El Nino you may do quite well.  I'm thinking around December is when you will start seeing storm systems.

 

Speaking of this winter, I'm really excited to see how November starts off...that will really set the tune for the upcoming winter.

[Tom]

GFS trending back warmer after this weekend. Whats Euro showing lately?

00z Euro is chilly through Tuesday, Monday night has temps back in the low 30's in IA/IL/WI with a bounce back into the 60's.  Not all to warm, more seasonal.  Remember, average temps are now in the upper 60's and they start to fall pretty quick this month and next month.

 

BTW, 00z Euro has some snow shower activity Saturday morning in N IA!  I heard JB say that if any wintry type precip falls this weekend it would be the shortest period EVER from one season to the next.  Last May there was snow in NW IL/E IA I believe.

[Tom]

Last season I talked about how this year we would have more phased and slower moving systems and wouldn't ya know the first system that is developing in this year's new LRC pattern is taking on a negative tilt!  Here is a good read from Gary Lezak explain how this is different than last year.

 

 

Weather discussion:

A strong storm is developing today and it is becoming quite energetic as it is just now taking on a negative tilt. A negatively tilted trough is usually much stronger and intensifying than a positively tilted trough. A negative tilt means it is tilted from northwest to southeast, and vorticity is generated (upper level energy). You can see the forecast of this negative tilt below:

http://www.weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2.jpg

At the base of this developing trough is more of a separation, as you can see between the 570 dm line and the 564 dm line. That is basically a weak upper level low forming over Kansas today and this is approaching as well. All of this will combine to create bands of rain and  thunderstorms near and ahead of the cold front that you can see on the 7 AM plot below:

http://www.weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/12.jpg

This cold front will be moving into western Missouri this afternoon. Along and near the front there will be very heavy thunderstorms. KCI Airport will likely end up with over 4 inches of rain, maybe even 5″.  And, this is exhibit A for LRC 2014-2015.  The pattern is just now evolving. Be sure to check in tomorrow as we look deeper into the developing weather pattern.  Have a great day. And, go Royals tonight. It will be hot in Southern California.

Gary

[Tom]

The new weekly run of the JMA is in and you can see the model is indicating a huge trough Week 1 for the eastern 2/3rd of the nation.  Week 2 it focuses more into the central states and less troughing in the east.  This would indicate a storm track in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Week 3 & 4 the model flips the pattern but I'm suspect of that happening as this has happened before 2 weeks ago when it was seeing ridging for next week and the following week before flipping cold this past week.

[Tom]

Man, just check out the pattern the CFS is seeing evolving around the 18th-23rd!  I wouldn't be surprised if you guys out in the Plains get their first snows of the season!  D**n that looks cold...these are 2m High temps....clearly showing a storm track right were the mean trough will be positioned.

[Geos]

Man, just check out the pattern the CFS is seeing evolving around the 18th-23rd!  I wouldn't be surprised if you guys out in the Plains get their first snows of the season!  D**n that looks cold...these are 2m High temps....clearly showing a storm track right were the mean trough will be positioned.

 

Wow, that looks like November pattern!

 

NAM soaking the state tonight. Squall line expected to form out ahead of the cold front late today.

 

[Tom]

Boy, this storm system coming together is really interesting.  When this thing matures and deepens it starts to generate its own cold air and wraps it around the storm system into MN/WI.  According to the 12z GFS/NAM, First snows of the season for MN and Wisco!  Amazing!  What a pattern we have developing.

[Money]

Too early for snow/cold

 

[Tom]

Too early for snow/cold

 

There you are!  If flakes fly, that's still pretty impressive...prob won't accumulate.  Ground is too warm but if it hits at night, maybe slushy accumulations on cars, grass, etc.

[Money]

I love tracking snowstorms though. How have you been Tom?

 

Anyways, GFS is much colder at the end of the run compared to 6z. Shows highs in the 30's around the 17th. 

[james1976]

I didnt realize this current system was going to be this strong!  And it's nice to hear Lezak say it is the beginning of the new LRC. Fun times ahead

[james1976]

Mets keep lowing highs over here for this weekend. Now talking barely 50....low 30s at night!

[Money]

12z GFS showing that storm during the 13th-14th time period as well. A very strong low (sub 994 in N. WI) 

[Tom]

I love tracking snowstorms though. How have you been Tom?

 

Anyways, GFS is much colder at the end of the run compared to 6z. Shows highs in the 30's around the 17th. 

I've been doing great Money!  Enjoyed my summer as much as possible knowing that this winter coming would be something to reckon with.  What the global and long range models are showing for this month are mind boggling.  Those warm waters in the north/northeast pacific are playing a big role IMO.  How was your summer?

[Tom]

I didnt realize this current system was going to be this strong!  And it's nice to hear Lezak say it is the beginning of the new LRC. Fun times ahead

Looks like we will have 3-4 systems to track (including today's) through mid month!  12z GFS showing 2 big ones from the plains to the lakes.  I love what I'm looking at.

[Tom]

CFSv2 continues its downward trend in temps for central CONUS (which btw is almost identical to Sept's run of the JAMSTEC Dec-Feb temp forecast ...linkage to new LRC?)  Also seeing major arctic shot mid month like its little brother CFS.

[james1976]

So if this is the beginning of the new LRC then this current system should re-occur 40-60 days later, correct?

[james1976]

Temps falling into the mid 50s in western Iowa. Currently 67 here.

[BrianJK]

Was in N WI last weekend out on the boat enjoy sunny skies and 76 degrees.  The very next weekend, there is snow in the forecast.  Mother Nature has BiPolar(vortex) disorder.

[Geos]

CFSv2 continues its downward trend in temps for central CONUS (which btw is almost identical to Sept's run of the JAMSTEC Dec-Feb temp forecast ...linkage to new LRC?)  Also seeing major arctic shot mid month like its little brother CFS.

 

Those are huge departures! -3°C = -5.4°F 

I guess it's time to get used to chilly weather. 

 

Thinking the days of 75°+ are over now.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Quite the contrast for sure!  Just like we have seen all last winter/spring.  I'm betting on the southern jet to be active as well and this should help the southern half of Cali get the moisture that they desperately need.  With all the warm waters near the western coast of Mexico and the Baja along with a central based potential weak El Nino you may do quite well.  I'm thinking around December is when you will start seeing storm systems.

 

Speaking of this winter, I'm really excited to see how November starts off...that will really set the tune for the upcoming winter.

Even though we can get a few minor storms in October or November, December or January is usually when it turns wetter in this area, as the majority of our rain falls from November through March. Hopefully you are correct that we turn stormy in December.

 

I think your area is going to be in for a cold and stormy mid-late fall and winter due to the very amplified pattern that has been in place of late.

[Geos]

Check out the snowfall forecast for north of Lake Superior.

 

[james1976]

Local mets are talking possible snow flakes tomorrow night!

[Geos]

0z NAM run quite cold this Sunday AM.

 

[Money]

If only this was about a month later in the season

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014100300&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=189

[Tom]

If only this was about a month later in the season

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014100300&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=189

All I gotta say is when this part of the LRC repeats in December, its going to be a busy month tracking these systems.  Just making an educated guess on when the LRC may start to repeat, I'd look out around the very beginning of December to see this current wx pattern repeating.  IMO, the way the vortex just sits and spins to the south of Hudson Bay over the next week or so, this will be a very cold air mass in December.  I'm sure there will also be streaks of snow along the southern periphery of the jet just like its advertising rain showers on Sat/Sun/Tues.  We saw a lot of these types of snow chances last year.  Really excited about tracking phased systems this year.

[Tom]

Check out the similarities in the 00z GFS 16 Day total precip and the latest CFSv2 run for the month of October.  Very similar corridor of heavy precip from the Plains to the Lakes (esp the lower lakes).  Very interesting...only if it was Winter already!

[Tom]

The storm finally got its act together around midnight around here and pretty much rained all night long.  Nice steady rain at times it came down heavy and woke me up.  Here are some totals:

 

 

3.46" Oak Park

2.67" Homer Glen

2.36" Lincolnwood

1.89" Valparaiso

1.34" Elgin

1.27" Mundelein

0.94" O'Hare

[Tom]

Models still trying to kick out snow shower activity in NW IL, primarily Rockford on westward.  Would be wild if that happened and set the new all time record for shortest period to see wintry precip from one season to the next.

[Tom]

00z Euro ensembles digging a much larger and impressive trough Day 10-15, no warm ups in sight.  We are in for a month of continued cold fronts and storminess, might break for a bit week 3 into 4 and allow the cold to reload as we get closer to November.