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October 2014 observations and discussion


Geos

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Check out the similarities in the 00z GFS 16 Day total precip and the latest CFSv2 run for the month of October.  Very similar corridor of heavy precip from the Plains to the Lakes (esp the lower lakes).  Very interesting...only if it was Winter already!

 

Imagine that 4-6 weeks later! Record early season snowfall.

 

---

 

Rains really good last night. Backyard pond overflowed. 1.79" of rain at home.

 

Current satellite showing thicker clouds under CAA moving in.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Some ppl like to bash the GFS, and I tend to "see" the models medium/longer range "mistakes" and then make a decision on what I believe the model is saying.  No one believed the trough coming this weekend would be nearly as strong, especially JB (who I believe bashes the GFS way to much IMO).  The Euro followed suit and we now know what model won this time around and what longer range weather predicting tool worked (East Asian Theory).

 

Having said all that, 12z GFS keeps getting colder for Saturday and Saturday night!  Brings freezes in all of Wisco and even to parts of N IL...insane.

 

 

 

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Nice pocket of snow N of the Twin Cities at 11pm.

 

 

Riding the cold train for right now is the way to go. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think the 4km NAM is seeing snow on the ground in SE MN and up towards Ashland, WI. late tomorrow morning. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro not as bullish with the cold overnight hours, mid 30/upper 30's in general.  I'd say a blend of GFS/NAM and Euro is the way to go.  Not sure if NWS pulls the trigger with Freeze Watches in NE/IA S & C WI.

 

From next Wednesday on into the following weekend, Euro keeps temps generally 5-15F Below Normal.

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12z Euro not as bullish with the cold overnight hours, mid 30/upper 30's in general.  I'd say a blend of GFS/NAM and Euro is the way to go.  Not sure if NWS pulls the trigger with Freeze Watches in NE/IA S & C WI.

 

From next Wednesday on into the following weekend, Euro keeps temps generally 5-15F Below Normal.

 

I think the entire region west of the lake needs frost advisories at least. Some of the valleys might dip below freezing.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The last several runs of the Euro have held eastern Iowa in the upper 30s both Saturday and Sunday mornings.  I hope it's right.  The local mets have been inching their lows down into the mid 30s.  One local this morning lowered tonight to 33 in CR, which seems a little low given the clouds and strong wind.  I'm more concerned about tomorrow night when the wind will be much lighter.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4km NAM showing clearing in southern WI and far northern IL tonight. Showing this for lows as the snow deformation area swings southeast.

 

 

18z run went ever colder for Sunday morning.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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4km NAM showing clearing in southern WI and far northern IL tonight. Showing this for lows as the snow deformation area swings southeast.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4NC_18z/temp17.gif

 

18z run went ever colder for Sunday morning.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4NC_18z/temp42.gif

it looks like the growing season has came to an end with these nighttime lows down into the 30s and upper 20s.

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Very light snow flurries at my house! First of season! Down to 39 degrees.

 

Wow, it actually transpired!

 

Snowing all across NW Wisc. I know right now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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First time this year SNOW is mentioned in my grid forecast....

 

Saturday Rain and snow showers likely before 1pm, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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Given the pattern that I saw setting up for October, its not surprising that Chicago recorded its 3rd earliest snowfall of the season!

 

 

Chicago officially records its third earliest snow of the season

by Steve Kahn Today at 8AM

This morning’s chill not only brought some rain showers to the Chicago area, but also some snowflakes including an official sighting at O’Hare International Airport.

The official trace of snow that has been recorded at O’Hare is the city’s third earliest on record.

The only earlier traces of snow ever recorded in Chicago dating back to the start of the city’s snow climatology in 1884 were on

September 25th in 1928 and September 25th in 1942

 

The average date of the season’s first snowflakes in Chicago is on October 30th

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I saw the snow reports online at least in the immediate area. So I assume flakes fell here too. 


 


39° currently. Looks like that area of precipitation to the west could contain more flakes.


Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Can anyone get a sounding on this???

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Not cold enough for snow on this run, but that could change in earnest if its able to tug in more cold air.  Remember now, this source region of cold is coming from the arctic so it is certainly possible we may have a wintry solution.  Our current cold snap's source region was over the north Pacific and it turned out pretty darn cold.  Arctic air will have more punch and you can see the GFS getting colder each day.  It's actually showing NE/IA/WI/NW IL with high temps in upper 30's 10 days from now.  Typhoon Rule is correlating really well.

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Not cold enough for snow on this run, but that could change in earnest if its able to tug in more cold air.  Remember now, this source region of cold is coming from the arctic so it is certainly possible we may have a wintry solution.  Our current cold snap's source region was over the north Pacific and it turned out pretty darn cold.  Arctic air will have more punch and you can see the GFS getting colder each day.  It's actually showing NE/IA/WI/NW IL with high temps in upper 30's 10 days from now.  Typhoon Rule is correlating really well.

 

The model was underdone with the cold this morning, so that could be close enough for a wet snow mix. It reached 35.7° here this morning. 38° was the official forecast.

 

Think I might have felt a sleet pellet or two just a few minutes ago with a heavier shower.

 

Here's a Waterloo Sounding. Probably 38° and a cold rain on this sounding.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom - you didn't look far enough! haha

 

There is snow on the backside of that system.

 

 

 

Frost still looking like a good bet.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is an ominous looking jet stream structure in the longer range on the 12z Euro.  If this were winter, this could spell a major winter storm.  On this run the storm isn't that big just yet, a bit sheared, but its in the time frame using the East Asian Theory.  Could be a big storm in the making!

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170 days since the last trace of snow on April 16th.


High of only 45° here today. Can see the brightening of clouds to the west - going to be a cold one tonight!


 



Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Clouds just now clearing out. Plenty of 30s showing up just to the west at this hour.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Cumulus starting to build up a bit as it gets above 50°.


Had a solid frost this morning here. Low of 33°.


Noticed several vegetable plants bit the dust this morning. 


 


Yesterday was -19° below normal here.


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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It was chilly today with windchills in the 30s all day here and highs managed to top at 49F. Down into the 30s tonight. I havent seen any frost here yet, but I think by the weekend I might have a shot with that next shot of chilly air, if not, cold air arriving.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Went fishing early today on Lake Delevan around 7:30am, it was a very brisk and chilly day on the water.  I caught his Largemouth Bass around 9:00am or so and the lake was steaming!  Just like Lake Michigan is in the winter time.  It was sorta neat to be in the middle of it, water temp was 62F and it had to be close to 35F-40F before it faded away.  The conditions on the water deteriorated as the day went on bc the wind funneled down the length of the lake and the white caps picked up.  It was slow from then on.

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Back down in the 40s this evening. From this point forward if the area sees any prolonged stretch of mild weather, it can be officially called Indian Summer since frost has now occurred.

 

Lake Michigan cooling off quite a bit in the last 48 hours.

 

This

 

 

to this

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Forecasted highs have been knocked way down this week. Now only one day in the mid 60s and the rest 50s.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I feel bad for those living in Japan, not only did they experience a very strong Typhoon this past weekend, but a more powerful is brewing within the next 6 days!  Could become a CAT 4 strength!  This should produce a very strong trough and storm system somewhere in the central CONUS around the 18th-20th.  With continued troughiness thereafter, we may have continued cold and storminess through the end of the month.  Something to keep an eye on as we move forward.

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Was just reading this article out of NASA. There puzzled why the oceans haven't warmed up like they expected them to and why the land temperatures have leveled off! lol

The part about "missing heat" just kills me.

Well - if they took a clue from solar activity instead of COthen they would have their answer!

 

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-study-finds-earth-s-ocean-abyss-has-not-warmed/#.VDK5Q9JDvTo

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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