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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


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Myself on the right. GF's son on left. And this is only 2 hours in. Can't imagine how this will be later!

12z Euro Control has a different look to it compared to the OP but further south with the precip.  

Just upgraded to a blizzard warning! Welcome to the blizz!  Now up to 12” in the point. Yowza! 

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Starting a thread this early? Bold! Let's see if it pays off. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Starting a thread this early? Bold! Let's see if it pays off. 

And I'm not even sure why he's interested in a system for the SW Lakes if he's clearly in the E. Lakes? Would usually mean a nice rainer over there.

Tbh, I think you gave him the idea of starting a thread from your "dusting" thread, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 hours ago, kush61 said:

Hello...

Any thoughts about a possible Low Pressure Center crossing the SW Great Lakes just ahead of Christmas.

Will it transpire; if so, with rain or snow ?

At this range, it's rather risky to start a storm thread but since you did, we'll go ahead with it bc I don't mind taking a chance on this opportunity. 

 

Speaking of chances, there is still ensemble support of a storm that wraps up around the GL's region on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  Might need to extend the date of this thread to include the backside LES potential as well.  That is becoming the BEST signal at this range for our SW MI peeps.  

Last nights 00z Euro Control...showing the potential that exists of a system wrapping up...

 

1.png

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

And I'm not even sure why he's interested in a system for the SW Lakes if he's clearly in the E. Lakes? Would usually mean a nice rainer over there.

Tbh, I think you gave him the idea of starting a thread from your "dusting" thread, lol

Your back is gonna hurt from shoveling all of the rain that GFS is showing for you.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Your back is gonna hurt from shoveling all of the rain that GFS is showing for you.

Haha, no doubt but I'm looking out on white ground this morning. How 'bout you?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

At this range, it's rather risky to start a storm thread but since you did, we'll go ahead with it bc I don't mind taking a chance on this opportunity. 

 

Speaking of chances, there is still ensemble support of a storm that wraps up around the GL's region on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  Might need to extend the date of this thread to include the backside LES potential as well.  That is becoming the BEST signal at this range for our SW MI peeps.  

Last nights 00z Euro Control...showing the potential that exists of a system wrapping up...

 

1.png

It's certainly a system but looks more like the 1004 mb SLP the 0z GEM showed (i.e. not a wrapped-up bomb). Ofc, this is just a single time-stamp. Does it go bigger from there?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Way too soon to even consider making a thread. Im surprised it got pinged! Its 6-7 days out. Lots can change within this time frame. Oh well, whatever! I guess I am a little too strict.

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

And I'm not even sure why he's interested in a system for the SW Lakes if he's clearly in the E. Lakes? Would usually mean a nice rainer over there.

Tbh, I think you gave him the idea of starting a thread from your "dusting" thread, lol

Go figure!

 

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • kush61 changed the title to DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes
17 minutes ago, Niko said:

Way too early to start a thread. Not sure I can comprehend on the titles thread, but whatever.

I seriously believe it was meant to be a "troll thread". Since when do newbies from the far fringe of our sub kick-off threads for another region? When you had just a few posts under your belt, did you start a thread a week out for some potential in Nebraska or Minnesota??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Sorry for starting this thread too soon. I've never started one before and didn't realize a week out was too soon. I just wanted input on the track of that cyclone.

The members of this forum are a great source of weather expertise that I appreciate. Thank-you all !!!

Received about an inch of snow here overnight.

 

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Haha, no doubt but I'm looking out on white ground this morning. How 'bout you?

Brown ground with white soil.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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17 minutes ago, kush61 said:

Sorry for starting this thread too soon. I've never started one before and didn't realize a week out was too soon. I just wanted input on the track of that cyclone.

The members of this forum are a great source of weather expertise that I appreciate. Thank-you all !!!

Received about an inch of snow here overnight.

 

 

It's no issue! People have started threads a week in advance before (especially during particularly dead periods), it's just not common practice because a lot can go wrong in 7 days.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

It's no issue! People have started threads a week in advance before (especially during particularly dead periods), it's just not common practice because a lot can will go wrong in 7 days.

FYP

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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21 minutes ago, kush61 said:

Sorry for starting this thread too soon. I've never started one before and didn't realize a week out was too soon. I just wanted input on the track of that cyclone.

The members of this forum are a great source of weather expertise that I appreciate. Thank-you all !!!

Received about an inch of snow here overnight.

 

 

It's Christmas. We won't hold it against ya if we're jinxed. I feel more likely we are jinxed because this Nina has gone Modoki which is not nearly as favorable as a traditional Nina. You can clearly see it's been acting more like a full-blown Nino!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Hey at least there is an arctic front to talk about behind wherever the LP ends up.    

True dat. We rarely if ever make LES threads so you might as well use this one. I know it's your thing.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I seriously believe it was meant to be a "troll thread". Since when do newbies from the far fringe of our sub kick-off threads for another region? When you had just a few posts under your belt, did you start a thread a week out for some potential in Nebraska or Minnesota??

I agree. Also, I have a few names in mind that are trolls on this forum.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

In back to back runs, the Canadian is flashing a strong southern stream phaser.  Occasionally, it can sniff out a storm in the longer range.  Let’s hope it’s onto something.

It looks like the GFS tried the trough just pushed to far east.  Will be interesting to see if the Canadian can pull it out, it somewhat resembled cycle 1 imo.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

With the start of this thread that could put any chance of west Michigan of getting a white Christmas in jeopardy. At this time there is snow to the north, east and south of Grand Rapids but no snow here at all. 

I say we just keep pushing for record low snowfall.  Why not? 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

True dat. We rarely if ever make LES threads so you might as well use this one. I know it's your thing.

How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)?

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6 hours ago, whatitdo said:

How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)?

Not sure but a true NW wind would do you nicely.  Not me.  I need WSW 

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6 hours ago, whatitdo said:

How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)?

NWS seems stoked about the LES potential due to extreme instability caused by even greater Delta-T's.

Arctic air rushes in on the backside of this low with 850 mb
temps of minus 15 to 20C headed our way for Christmas eve along
with lake enhanced snow on Wednesday night and lake effect snow
showers through Christmas Day. It will be beginning to look a lot
like Christmas, especially closer to Lake Michigan.

Iirc, they said the lake is running at 6 or 7C, so that'd be Delta-T's of 21-27C. I think your area is in as favorable spot as anyone to benefit at this point. Still a lot of mechanics to get worked out tho wrt N. stream Shortwave, S. Stream SW, and any phasing involved whether it's early bringing us rain, or later to our east and actually enhances the LES scenario.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

NWS seems stoked about the LES potential due to extreme instability caused by even greater Delta-T's.


Arctic air rushes in on the backside of this low with 850 mb
temps of minus 15 to 20C headed our way for Christmas eve along
with lake enhanced snow on Wednesday night and lake effect snow
showers through Christmas Day. It will be beginning to look a lot
like Christmas, especially closer to Lake Michigan.

Iirc, they said the lake is running at 6 or 7C, so that'd be Delta-T's of 21-27C. I think your area is in as favorable spot as anyone to benefit at this point. Still a lot of mechanics to get worked out tho wrt N. stream Shortwave, S. Stream SW, and any phasing involved whether it's early bringing us rain, or later to our east and actually enhances the LES scenario.

Tonight's GFS shows the classic NW flow LES band into Kzoo.

This is evening of 25th:

20201218 0z GFS h192 Snowfall.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON. Dominate with the southern energy

image.thumb.png.b19b932da9a6c821b4c36d5255e3ebb0.png

The differences I'm seeing between the ICON vs EURO/UKIE/GFS is the way they are handling the southern energy.  The ICON almost closes off the southern stream energy while all the rest of the models have a sheared out wave.

 

 

icon_z500_vort_us_51.png

 

vs...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

 

 

If we are to see any chance of a storm, we either have the N Stream trend farther south (unlikely) or have the southern energy maintain strength while the northern piece slides east across the N Sub.  The trailing front has been a part of this years LRC where waves like to track up along it so still some time to see the models figure it out.  Last night's 00z Euro was close to doing so but it phases a lot farther east towards SW Ontario/Eastern GL's.  I have seen, however, the Euro trend bigger with the N ATL blocking and digging the trough deeper and farther west each run.

Check out the trends...

1.gif

 

00z Euro...LES signal is looking mighty good for MI peeps and near the U.P...some snow now showing up for N IA...

 

1.png

 

00z Euro Control trying to phase the S Stream...farther east this run across the OHV...

 

2.png

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As I write this the 6Z GFS is even further N - a miss synoptic wise for almost all - however I don't by a such N track with the AO negative. The only caveat is the slight upward trend in the AO around this storm periods time--- 590x763_12162354_ao.jpg            Arctic oscillation has been negative and will remain negative for a while forcing a more southern storm track and more opportunities for snow. This index starts to head toward neutral by the 16- to 20-day period. The storm track should shift farther south with less southern branch phasing. I think MPLS sets in a good spot for this one and maybe N.IA, but not much further S than 43 L in -- further E is different. Just my .02. And for what it's worth- E Control is back N , but not nearly has far N as the GFS. Still going to be several days before guidance gets a better handle on this.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z EC develops a southern low but to far east to benefit most of the sub.

1608789600-bhceVUu9v0M.png

If we are to see that solution, we need more separation of the N Wave and southern energy that will allow the S wave develop better.  At this range, anything can happen and I also remember this same model mayhem was going on back in cycle 1.  In fact, there were a few other systems with the same characteristics we are seeing now.

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

If we are to see that solution, we need more separation of the N Wave and southern energy that will allow the S wave develop better.  At this range, anything can happen and I also remember this same model mayhem was going on back in cycle 1.  In fact, there were a few other systems with the same characteristics we are seeing now.

Is it the blocking that giving them trouble potentially?  Seems like we have to get inside 5 days for any kind of solution.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Is it the blocking that giving them trouble potentially?  Seems like we have to get inside 5 days for any kind of solution.

From what I can tell, there isn't much blocking in S Canada near Hudson Bay that would press the N wave farther south like we had with the last winter storm that hit NE/IA/WI/MI.  Look at the differences from that storm and what the GFS is showing now...those Hudson Bay blocks are what we need to see to get a nice phased storm.  That's not to say we can't see a 2-wave system develop this time and allow the 1st wave to track across the north allowing the secondary wave strengthen along the frontal boundary.

 

Last storm...

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

 

vs current run...

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_22.png

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