kush61 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Hello... Any thoughts about a possible Low Pressure Center crossing the SW Great Lakes just ahead of Christmas. Will it transpire; if so, with rain or snow ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Starting a thread this early? Bold! Let's see if it pays off. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: Starting a thread this early? Bold! Let's see if it pays off. And I'm not even sure why he's interested in a system for the SW Lakes if he's clearly in the E. Lakes? Would usually mean a nice rainer over there. Tbh, I think you gave him the idea of starting a thread from your "dusting" thread, lol 1 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 hours ago, kush61 said: Hello... Any thoughts about a possible Low Pressure Center crossing the SW Great Lakes just ahead of Christmas. Will it transpire; if so, with rain or snow ? At this range, it's rather risky to start a storm thread but since you did, we'll go ahead with it bc I don't mind taking a chance on this opportunity. Speaking of chances, there is still ensemble support of a storm that wraps up around the GL's region on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Might need to extend the date of this thread to include the backside LES potential as well. That is becoming the BEST signal at this range for our SW MI peeps. Last nights 00z Euro Control...showing the potential that exists of a system wrapping up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: And I'm not even sure why he's interested in a system for the SW Lakes if he's clearly in the E. Lakes? Would usually mean a nice rainer over there. Tbh, I think you gave him the idea of starting a thread from your "dusting" thread, lol Your back is gonna hurt from shoveling all of the rain that GFS is showing for you. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Looks like another dry cold front for my area. Yay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Your back is gonna hurt from shoveling all of the rain that GFS is showing for you. Haha, no doubt but I'm looking out on white ground this morning. How 'bout you? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 hours ago, Tom said: At this range, it's rather risky to start a storm thread but since you did, we'll go ahead with it bc I don't mind taking a chance on this opportunity. Speaking of chances, there is still ensemble support of a storm that wraps up around the GL's region on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Might need to extend the date of this thread to include the backside LES potential as well. That is becoming the BEST signal at this range for our SW MI peeps. Last nights 00z Euro Control...showing the potential that exists of a system wrapping up... It's certainly a system but looks more like the 1004 mb SLP the 0z GEM showed (i.e. not a wrapped-up bomb). Ofc, this is just a single time-stamp. Does it go bigger from there? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Way too soon to even consider making a thread. Im surprised it got pinged! Its 6-7 days out. Lots can change within this time frame. Oh well, whatever! I guess I am a little too strict. 11 hours ago, jaster220 said: And I'm not even sure why he's interested in a system for the SW Lakes if he's clearly in the E. Lakes? Would usually mean a nice rainer over there. Tbh, I think you gave him the idea of starting a thread from your "dusting" thread, lol Go figure! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 12z GFS way north. Doubt it changes. Fargo looks good though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Way too early to start a thread. Not sure I can comprehend on the threads title, but whatever. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Niko said: Way too early to start a thread. Not sure I can comprehend on the titles thread, but whatever. I seriously believe it was meant to be a "troll thread". Since when do newbies from the far fringe of our sub kick-off threads for another region? When you had just a few posts under your belt, did you start a thread a week out for some potential in Nebraska or Minnesota?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Sorry for starting this thread too soon. I've never started one before and didn't realize a week out was too soon. I just wanted input on the track of that cyclone. The members of this forum are a great source of weather expertise that I appreciate. Thank-you all !!! Received about an inch of snow here overnight. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Haha, no doubt but I'm looking out on white ground this morning. How 'bout you? Brown ground with white soil. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, kush61 said: Sorry for starting this thread too soon. I've never started one before and didn't realize a week out was too soon. I just wanted input on the track of that cyclone. The members of this forum are a great source of weather expertise that I appreciate. Thank-you all !!! Received about an inch of snow here overnight. It's no issue! People have started threads a week in advance before (especially during particularly dead periods), it's just not common practice because a lot can go wrong in 7 days. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: It's no issue! People have started threads a week in advance before (especially during particularly dead periods), it's just not common practice because a lot can will go wrong in 7 days. FYP 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, kush61 said: Sorry for starting this thread too soon. I've never started one before and didn't realize a week out was too soon. I just wanted input on the track of that cyclone. The members of this forum are a great source of weather expertise that I appreciate. Thank-you all !!! Received about an inch of snow here overnight. It's Christmas. We won't hold it against ya if we're jinxed. I feel more likely we are jinxed because this Nina has gone Modoki which is not nearly as favorable as a traditional Nina. You can clearly see it's been acting more like a full-blown Nino! 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Hey at least there is an arctic front to talk about behind wherever the LP ends up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Hey at least there is an arctic front to talk about behind wherever the LP ends up. True dat. We rarely if ever make LES threads so you might as well use this one. I know it's your thing. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 In back to back runs, the Canadian is flashing a strong southern stream phaser. Occasionally, it can sniff out a storm in the longer range. Let’s hope it’s onto something. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 12 hours ago, jaster220 said: I seriously believe it was meant to be a "troll thread". Since when do newbies from the far fringe of our sub kick-off threads for another region? When you had just a few posts under your belt, did you start a thread a week out for some potential in Nebraska or Minnesota?? I agree. Also, I have a few names in mind that are trolls on this forum. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Tom said: In back to back runs, the Canadian is flashing a strong southern stream phaser. Occasionally, it can sniff out a storm in the longer range. Let’s hope it’s onto something. It looks like the GFS tried the trough just pushed to far east. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian can pull it out, it somewhat resembled cycle 1 imo. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 With the start of this thread that could put any chance of west Michigan of getting a white Christmas in jeopardy. At this time there is snow to the north, east and south of Grand Rapids but no snow here at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, westMJim said: With the start of this thread that could put any chance of west Michigan of getting a white Christmas in jeopardy. At this time there is snow to the north, east and south of Grand Rapids but no snow here at all. I say we just keep pushing for record low snowfall. Why not? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: True dat. We rarely if ever make LES threads so you might as well use this one. I know it's your thing. How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Be a welcome miracle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 6 hours ago, whatitdo said: How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)? Not sure but a true NW wind would do you nicely. Not me. I need WSW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 6 hours ago, whatitdo said: How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)? NWS seems stoked about the LES potential due to extreme instability caused by even greater Delta-T's. Arctic air rushes in on the backside of this low with 850 mb temps of minus 15 to 20C headed our way for Christmas eve along with lake enhanced snow on Wednesday night and lake effect snow showers through Christmas Day. It will be beginning to look a lot like Christmas, especially closer to Lake Michigan. Iirc, they said the lake is running at 6 or 7C, so that'd be Delta-T's of 21-27C. I think your area is in as favorable spot as anyone to benefit at this point. Still a lot of mechanics to get worked out tho wrt N. stream Shortwave, S. Stream SW, and any phasing involved whether it's early bringing us rain, or later to our east and actually enhances the LES scenario. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Repeat after me...I will not get sucked in....I will not get sukced in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 0z ICON. Dominate with the southern energy 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z ICON. Dominate with the southern energy I am thinking you are very close to that purple shade bud.....hope you score bigly 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z Euro Control also further south, not as far as the ICON but good for Neb and Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 0z GFS way north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Lot of model spread still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 0z CMC way north too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: 0z CMC way north too It's stronger with the north energy develops the southern energy but off to the east of the Mississippi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: NWS seems stoked about the LES potential due to extreme instability caused by even greater Delta-T's. Arctic air rushes in on the backside of this low with 850 mb temps of minus 15 to 20C headed our way for Christmas eve along with lake enhanced snow on Wednesday night and lake effect snow showers through Christmas Day. It will be beginning to look a lot like Christmas, especially closer to Lake Michigan. Iirc, they said the lake is running at 6 or 7C, so that'd be Delta-T's of 21-27C. I think your area is in as favorable spot as anyone to benefit at this point. Still a lot of mechanics to get worked out tho wrt N. stream Shortwave, S. Stream SW, and any phasing involved whether it's early bringing us rain, or later to our east and actually enhances the LES scenario. Tonight's GFS shows the classic NW flow LES band into Kzoo. This is evening of 25th: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 hours ago, Clinton said: 0z ICON. Dominate with the southern energy The differences I'm seeing between the ICON vs EURO/UKIE/GFS is the way they are handling the southern energy. The ICON almost closes off the southern stream energy while all the rest of the models have a sheared out wave. vs... If we are to see any chance of a storm, we either have the N Stream trend farther south (unlikely) or have the southern energy maintain strength while the northern piece slides east across the N Sub. The trailing front has been a part of this years LRC where waves like to track up along it so still some time to see the models figure it out. Last night's 00z Euro was close to doing so but it phases a lot farther east towards SW Ontario/Eastern GL's. I have seen, however, the Euro trend bigger with the N ATL blocking and digging the trough deeper and farther west each run. Check out the trends... 00z Euro...LES signal is looking mighty good for MI peeps and near the U.P...some snow now showing up for N IA... 00z Euro Control trying to phase the S Stream...farther east this run across the OHV... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 As I write this the 6Z GFS is even further N - a miss synoptic wise for almost all - however I don't by a such N track with the AO negative. The only caveat is the slight upward trend in the AO around this storm periods time--- Arctic oscillation has been negative and will remain negative for a while forcing a more southern storm track and more opportunities for snow. This index starts to head toward neutral by the 16- to 20-day period. The storm track should shift farther south with less southern branch phasing. I think MPLS sets in a good spot for this one and maybe N.IA, but not much further S than 43 L in -- further E is different. Just my .02. And for what it's worth- E Control is back N , but not nearly has far N as the GFS. Still going to be several days before guidance gets a better handle on this. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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