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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z EC develops a southern low but to far east to benefit most of the sub.

1608789600-bhceVUu9v0M.png

If we are to see that solution, we need more separation of the N Wave and southern energy that will allow the S wave develop better.  At this range, anything can happen and I also remember this same model mayhem was going on back in cycle 1.  In fact, there were a few other systems with the same characteristics we are seeing now.

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

If we are to see that solution, we need more separation of the N Wave and southern energy that will allow the S wave develop better.  At this range, anything can happen and I also remember this same model mayhem was going on back in cycle 1.  In fact, there were a few other systems with the same characteristics we are seeing now.

Is it the blocking that giving them trouble potentially?  Seems like we have to get inside 5 days for any kind of solution.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Is it the blocking that giving them trouble potentially?  Seems like we have to get inside 5 days for any kind of solution.

From what I can tell, there isn't much blocking in S Canada near Hudson Bay that would press the N wave farther south like we had with the last winter storm that hit NE/IA/WI/MI.  Look at the differences from that storm and what the GFS is showing now...those Hudson Bay blocks are what we need to see to get a nice phased storm.  That's not to say we can't see a 2-wave system develop this time and allow the 1st wave to track across the north allowing the secondary wave strengthen along the frontal boundary.

 

Last storm...

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

 

vs current run...

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_22.png

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

The differences I'm seeing between the ICON vs EURO/UKIE/GFS is the way they are handling the southern energy.  The ICON almost closes off the southern stream energy while all the rest of the models have a sheared out wave.

 

 

icon_z500_vort_us_51.png

 

vs...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

 

 

If we are to see any chance of a storm, we either have the N Stream trend farther south (unlikely) or have the southern energy maintain strength while the northern piece slides east across the N Sub.  The trailing front has been a part of this years LRC where waves like to track up along it so still some time to see the models figure it out.  Last night's 00z Euro was close to doing so but it phases a lot farther east towards SW Ontario/Eastern GL's.  I have seen, however, the Euro trend bigger with the N ATL blocking and digging the trough deeper and farther west each run.

Check out the trends...

1.gif

 

00z Euro...LES signal is looking mighty good for MI peeps and near the U.P...some snow now showing up for N IA...

 

1.png

 

00z Euro Control trying to phase the S Stream...farther east this run across the OHV...

 

2.png

I do like the trends on that 500 mb map. Seems tho that south and east has been a theme this winter, which is taking things the wrong direction with the S. stream wave once again. Not set in stone yet ofc, but it's concerning to see already the "just misses me SE" being flashed.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Seems like all the models starting to show some good signals of phasing the S stream energy.  At this stage, that’s what I’d like to see and from here on out.  Next thing I’m looking for is a strong N ATL Ridge which will help shift this baby farther west.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I do like the trends on that 500 mb map. Seems tho that south and east has been a theme this winter, which is taking things the wrong direction with the S. stream wave once again. Not set in stone yet ofc, but it's concerning to see already the "just misses me SE" being flashed.

Yeah the misses SE have been brutal. Trusting these lows to track in the right direction isn't panning out - im hoping LES bails me out. Below is what NWS is thinking for my area. I have quite literally ~never~ experienced a white Christmas. It would truly be amazing if this came true, especially it being my first winter in the great lakes area, and I would have no problem disregarding the abysmal snow fall totals thus far if it came into fruition. 

-- Lake Effect Snow Machine Cranks to Life into Christmas Eve --

The main show in the 7 day forecast is the plunge into Arctic air
and the threat for lake snows down wind of Lake Michigan. An
Arctic front will plow through the area Wednesday night (23rd into
the 24th). Models are still placing us on the warm side of the
system initially on Wednesday, so any synoptic snow swath looks to
miss us well to the north and west over Northern Wisconsin and the
Upper Peninsula. Lake effect snow looks to get cranking Wednesday
night, lasting through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 850mb
temperatures drop to around -20C. That will push delta T`s into
the extreme category in the middle 20s C. Loads of instability
obviously along with deeper moisture via the upper trough
overhead and shortwaves moving through to enhance lift. All
ingredients look to be coming together for some healthy lake
snows towards Lake Michigan. So, the entire area will not see
significant snows, but for areas along and west of Highway 131 its
looking more likely. Travel will be impacted given low
temperatures and accumulating snow. Later forecasts will provide
more details as we get closer to the event. GFS BUFKIT overviews
indicate a very healthy environment for lake effect snow. The
Northwest flow in place should keep things confined mainly west of
131. That said there is plenty of time for the models to shift
the flow a bit. Stay tuned...
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Comparing last nights 00z GEFS vs today's 12z GEFS...both runs starting to see a potential S Stream system cutting up near OHV???  I remember tracking a storm this season (forgot when it was) but the GEFS were the first to see the phase which was way east and the Euro was way west.  I think @Nikowas the only member that got anything from that storm system.  Anyhow, it's starting to seem like the models are showing a similar set up.  Hopefully the upstream blocking is stronger as we get closer.  If that Monday clipper tracks into New England and bombs out off the SE coast of Canada, that in turn, can pump ridge even stronger near Greenland/N ATL, which can help the entire pattern dig and slow.

 

snod.conus.png

 

VS...

 

snod.conus.png

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Comparing last nights 00z GEFS vs today's 12z GEFS...both runs starting to see a potential S Stream system cutting up near OHV???  I remember tracking a storm this season (forgot when it was) but the GEFS were the first to see the phase which was way east and the Euro was way west.  I think @Nikowas the only member that got anything from that storm system.  Anyhow, it's starting to seem like the models are showing a similar set up.  Hopefully the upstream blocking is stronger as we get closer.  If that Monday clipper tracks into New England and bombs out off the SE coast of Canada, that in turn, can pump ridge even stronger near Greenland/N ATL, which can help the entire pattern dig and slow.

 

snod.conus.png

 

VS...

 

snod.conus.png

Yes sir....I was the winner here. So far this Met Winter, I have been liked by Ma Nature. 😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro now showing a classic anafront situation here.  That would be amazing.  Not something we see too frequently around here.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

I think the last time I saw a system like this with precip developing behind an arctic front was back in '13-'14 or even Jan '19 during the PV intrusion...

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Wow, perfect scenario for a White Christmas for most of Nebraska. I'm driving down to KC on the afternoon of the 23rd to fly to my family, so hopefully this situation wouldn't complicate things haha. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Euro snow totals are light downwind of the lakes, but I'd have to think that set up would give WMI one heck of a LES event.   Which models pick up LES the best?  Usually don't see much of the models pick up on it in the long range, even with a great set up.  

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Merry Christmas...what a trough centered over the GL's...I'm digging the blocking getting stronger hooking over the top...

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

After seeing today's 12z Euro run, I'm getting drawn in and fits the overall LRC pattern quite well...you can see the big difference in today's run showing the energy phasing earlier...baby stepping...

1.gif

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59 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Euro snow totals are light downwind of the lakes, but I'd have to think that set up would give WMI one heck of a LES event.   Which models pick up LES the best?  Usually don't see much of the models pick up on it in the long range, even with a great set up.  

Also would like to know this! 

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I like the fact that a strong ridge will be building on the WC. That bolds well for a trough for us, but question is, how strong will the low be and which track it takes. Odds are taking this low as in inland runner and close enough to strike SEMI. Hopefully, it can go more west to include some more peeps on here.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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