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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

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Both DVN and DMX pretty much dismissing the Euro at this point.  DVN only mentioned the GFS and GEFS, you would think they would have learned from the horrific performance of the GFS on the last storm.  Regardless if the Euro continues to show snow for another run or two, they won't be able to continue to ignore it.  

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4 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Yeah the misses SE have been brutal. Trusting these lows to track in the right direction isn't panning out - im hoping LES bails me out. Below is what NWS is thinking for my area. I have quite literally ~never~ experienced a white Christmas. It would truly be amazing if this came true, especially it being my first winter in the great lakes area, and I would have no problem disregarding the abysmal snow fall totals thus far if it came into fruition. 



-- Lake Effect Snow Machine Cranks to Life into Christmas Eve --

The main show in the 7 day forecast is the plunge into Arctic air
and the threat for lake snows down wind of Lake Michigan. An
Arctic front will plow through the area Wednesday night (23rd into
the 24th). Models are still placing us on the warm side of the
system initially on Wednesday, so any synoptic snow swath looks to
miss us well to the north and west over Northern Wisconsin and the
Upper Peninsula. Lake effect snow looks to get cranking Wednesday
night, lasting through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 850mb
temperatures drop to around -20C. That will push delta T`s into
the extreme category in the middle 20s C. Loads of instability
obviously along with deeper moisture via the upper trough
overhead and shortwaves moving through to enhance lift. All
ingredients look to be coming together for some healthy lake
snows towards Lake Michigan. So, the entire area will not see
significant snows, but for areas along and west of Highway 131 its
looking more likely. Travel will be impacted given low
temperatures and accumulating snow. Later forecasts will provide
more details as we get closer to the event. GFS BUFKIT overviews
indicate a very healthy environment for lake effect snow. The
Northwest flow in place should keep things confined mainly west of
131. That said there is plenty of time for the models to shift
the flow a bit. Stay tuned...

I will be more excited for you than me since it would be your first time to experience a white Christmas. We had a beaut 3 yrs ago. Storm brought 5-8" area-wide. Trend is your friend today. Hope it keeps up.

Short range models do normally show more accurate LES signals than the globals. NAM in range will start to get amped for that signal.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC not convinced anyone is getting decent snow yet. At some point I think they will have to take their best shot at who.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Also would like to know this! 

Generally speaking, any LES shown on the global models is a really strong signal. Don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but I've seen LES hints at global map range turn into a big deal by the day of event. And, while GRR can get a little giddy over a LES scenario, they do a pretty good job with them as that's their focus. When they mention heavy snow that usually means code for 8-12+ at a minimum. Depending on whether we do get a phasing storm in our region, this could be impressive by anyone's standard.

Quote

There is growing confidence in lake effect snow showers and wind
chills dropping to near zero Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Snow
amounts could be heavy west of US 131 in northwest flow.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEM does phase the S stream wave, just too far east for anyone but SEMI (or further east). Follow-on LES signal gets mby to a decent place.

 

20201219 0z GEM h240 Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

-AO taking shape on Euro and gradually moving things S-

No kidding. Chicago special at h138 lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Guessing parts of the E.Coast that got tons of snow would have some flooding issues if the Euro comes to play with both temps near 50F and rainfall. Yuck!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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BAM seems to think Indy may reel in a storm with this pattern. If temps were more typical of winter...but who knows. It's funny because their snowfall map is not impressive for there, mostly east of them again.

20201218 BAMwx Christmas storm tweet.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

euro much warmer than gfs on incoming arctic air

Because it's not bombing, it's more typical system. Still so many possible outcomes being flashed

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z Euro...

1.png

 

The BIG difference this run compared to the previous runs off the Euro is the separation between the N wave and S wave...is this a trend or just a fluke run???  The worry is that blocking disappears right around this time just west of Greenland that can increase the flow and allow the N stream zip across while the southern energy cuts off the main flow in future runs and doesn't really phase into a strong storm.

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

The 00z Ukie is doing the same thing...

500hv.conus.png

 

 

Albeit it minor, but there are subtle changes developing across the central Plains into the MW/Lower Lakes in the 00z EPS...it looks like there are more members trying to "fill in the gap" from CO into KS/MO up into the GL's.  The 00z Euro control heading in that direction as well.

2.png

5.png

 

Actually, I looked at all the 51 ensemble members and there are clearly many more members developing the S wave into a stronger system.  Signs pointing that the models may be honing in on the southern wave.

 

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06z ICON trending towards the other models and some suggesting separation of both streams and focusing more on the southern energy tracking into the LRC's exhibit "The 4 Corners Slot"...how many times have we seen closed ULL's tracking into the TX Pan Handle/OK region???  

 

icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

 

icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...

1.png

 

The BIG difference this run compared to the previous runs off the Euro is the separation between the N wave and S wave...is this a trend or just a fluke run???  The worry is that blocking disappears right around this time just west of Greenland that can increase the flow and allow the N stream zip across while the southern energy cuts off the main flow in future runs and doesn't really phase into a strong storm.

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

The 00z Ukie is doing the same thing...

500hv.conus.png

 

 

Albeit it minor, but there are subtle changes developing across the central Plains into the MW/Lower Lakes in the 00z EPS...it looks like there are more members trying to "fill in the gap" from CO into KS/MO up into the GL's.  The 00z Euro control heading in that direction as well.

2.png

5.png

 

Actually, I looked at all the 51 ensemble members and there are clearly many more members developing the S wave into a stronger system.  Signs pointing that the models may be honing in on the southern wave.

 

What a change in the last 24 hours for the Euro.  The chance of a white Christmas is alive and well for my area.  Only about 10% of Christmas's here have an inch or more of snow cover.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z EC is very progressive and not overly strong.  

1608876000-taEoueguGfU.png

So I may get more snow around Christmas?  NWS Hastings was hinting at this in their morning disco. Let’s see how it plays out for our region. 
 

NWS Hastings:  It seems plausible that if the trough were to slow down, there could be a westward shift of the storm system and a potentially more significant impact locally, which would obviously be a concern for pre-holiday travel. As it stands now, ensemble guidance suggests this is a low probability, with most members dry or only lgt pcpn. Nonetheless, something to keep an eye on over coming days.

 

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Gfs stays firm 

with what?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro now showing a classic anafront situation here.  That would be amazing.  Not something we see too frequently around here.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

Today's GEM says hi

 

20201219 12z GEM h114 Surf.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Question here is, will this be a synoptic storm system or lake enhanced snow showers that give mod-hvy snowfall for some.


 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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16 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

So Euro shows southern stream, GFS shows a hard cutter with a big time cold front with no blocking?  hmmm.. One is completely off.  Looks like Euro phases and GFS says northern LP stays dominate.  Good test for both models.  

GFS shows big time blocking- almost retrogrades the system. It does the 2nd system on the E Coast.  It just doesn't phase it further S like some others say. The Blocking is their on ALL MODELS- trust me. How guidance envelops the blocking is the key in this system as it will have plenty of cold air - you don't get anafront snows very often in this neck of the woods with a blocking and or/ -AO

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Models will have a better handling of this system by early next week, especially when the energy rolls onshore from the Pacific.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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