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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

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OAX has an update on there discussion.

 

Becoming increasingly concerned that Wednesday could become an impactful winter weather day for the region. Models continue to support a chance for measurable snow. If the snow accurs, combined with what could be northwest winds 25 to 45 mph with higher gusts possible, areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility could result.

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30 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS members still all over the place.

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Sit back and enjoy the ride bud........❄️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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most lake affect snows for the Arrowhead of MN are anafront - unreal when they happen. Seen true 3-4" hour amounts. Several 2-3' events witnessed. But the king is Finland , ( Isabella Station) MN with near 60"  I believe in late Halloween Storm 1991. Arrowhead MN may not get consistent Lake snows, but when that E- ESW wind blows, watch out for that water hardly gets worked over.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX sounds like they are siding with the GFS:

Wednesday into Christmas Eve...Strong PV anomaly and sharp cold
front punches across the state during the day Wednesday providing
potent CAA by the afternoon hours. Impressive tropopause fold
Wednesday evening as well. The forecast soundings quickly saturate
in the dendritic layer past 18z Wednesday. GFS is more bullish
with the QPF and wind, but the latest ECMWF is beginning to come
around closer to the GFS solution wrt to the surface low track
across MN into the Great Lakes. Ensemble members continue to trend
up with the light QPF on Wednesday afternoon and evening and with
the strong CAA, confident the primary precipitation type will be
snow. If it does rain, it`ll be short-lived. Have non-diurnal
temperature trend going for Wednesday.
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00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us.  If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy.  The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days.

 

00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat.  I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur.  This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore.

 

 

 

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06Z GFS is a complete bust for those not in Chicago or MI. Michigan ( or NW MN very nice)  peeps do pretty well if 1-2" is in your cards. outside the LE.  I would take it.

06 Icon is way different.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us.  If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy.  The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days.

 

00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat.  I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur.  This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore.

 

 

 

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Might get about 48 hours notice on this one. Especially if the south end goes. Lol. That's crazy.

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LOT leaning towards the Euro

the ECMWF and CMC global have
favored the southern energy rounding the trough to help with a
modestly deepening surface low in the frontal trough much closer
to our latitude. This sort of setup would slow down the cold air
mass by several hours, but more importantly allow for the
blossoming of cold sector precip on the 700 mb trough axis.

With overall a bit better operational and ensemble support for
this idea, including roughly half of ECMWF ensemble members and an
uptick in support from the GEFS, have similarly to previous shift
trended the grids in favor of this. Should subsequent trends
continue down this general path, at least some snow accumulation
would be possible later Wednesday night into Thursday morning in
the deformation axis.
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5 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us.  If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy.  The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days.

 

00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat.  I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur.  This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore.

 

 

 

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@jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool

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This is looking like a "No Show" for my area and maybe for some. Teleconnections are just not favorable here in SEMI.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NWS Hastings with an interesting morning disco:  

Regardless of how QPF evolves, its likely we see a very strong surge of cold air as the amplifying upper flow will be coming nearly straight S out of Canada. Its also likely this surge of cold air will be coming in on strong NNW winds sustained at 20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. This will result in falling temps on Wed and cold wind chills falling to near zero Wed night. This is roughly a 50-60F drop in feels like temps in about 36hrs from Tue aftn to Wed night...a big change for sure! Finally, with the strong winds even the slightest bit of snow will be blown around and could cause visbility issues for anyone traveling on Wed ahead of the Christmas holiday. Overall, it`s not looking like this will amount to a major winter storm locally in terms of snow amounts, but the potential for lgt snow to overlap with strong winds and surge of cold air is concerning given the timing being during potentially busy travel period just before a holiday...and sometimes its the lgt snow events that cause as much or more travel headaches than the big storms. Will insert some wording into HWO and incr awareness of potential via social media for now.

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