bud2380 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Yesterday’s 12z Euro was clearly a fluke. This run is even worse than the 00z run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersno Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 OAX has an update on there discussion. Becoming increasingly concerned that Wednesday could become an impactful winter weather day for the region. Models continue to support a chance for measurable snow. If the snow accurs, combined with what could be northwest winds 25 to 45 mph with higher gusts possible, areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility could result. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 12z Euro Control Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro Control sigh. looks like euro's cutting back on the lake effect machine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 12z EPS members still all over the place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 30 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z EPS members still all over the place. Sit back and enjoy the ride bud........ 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 thought I was sitting good up here, who the hell knows I guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 GFS has been pretty consistent. Euro. Not so much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 most lake affect snows for the Arrowhead of MN are anafront - unreal when they happen. Seen true 3-4" hour amounts. Several 2-3' events witnessed. But the king is Finland , ( Isabella Station) MN with near 60" I believe in late Halloween Storm 1991. Arrowhead MN may not get consistent Lake snows, but when that E- ESW wind blows, watch out for that water hardly gets worked over. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 DMX sounds like they are siding with the GFS: Wednesday into Christmas Eve...Strong PV anomaly and sharp cold front punches across the state during the day Wednesday providing potent CAA by the afternoon hours. Impressive tropopause fold Wednesday evening as well. The forecast soundings quickly saturate in the dendritic layer past 18z Wednesday. GFS is more bullish with the QPF and wind, but the latest ECMWF is beginning to come around closer to the GFS solution wrt to the surface low track across MN into the Great Lakes. Ensemble members continue to trend up with the light QPF on Wednesday afternoon and evening and with the strong CAA, confident the primary precipitation type will be snow. If it does rain, it`ll be short-lived. Have non-diurnal temperature trend going for Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Some changes coming on the ICON. Looks like southern stream system developing when previous runs didn’t have it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Icon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS isn’t budging at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 The last 5 runs of the GFS have been essentially the same. Terrific consistency. It’s the only model showing any consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS and Euro at Hr 84 couldn't more different. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 It truly is remarkable only 4 days out or so how far apart the euro and gfs are. Euro would give me a white Christmas. Albeit barely with about 1-2” of snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Same here. GFS seems to be on it's own-- kinda off. MPLS only with 20% chance in it's grids for the City. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us. If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy. The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days. 00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat. I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur. This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 06Z GFS is a complete bust for those not in Chicago or MI. Michigan ( or NW MN very nice) peeps do pretty well if 1-2" is in your cards. outside the LE. I would take it. 06 Icon is way different. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS actually gives me 6". I would be out of town for this, but it'd be nice to return home to a white ground. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Tom said: 00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us. If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy. The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days. 00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat. I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur. This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore. Might get about 48 hours notice on this one. Especially if the south end goes. Lol. That's crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 LOT leaning towards the Euro the ECMWF and CMC global have favored the southern energy rounding the trough to help with a modestly deepening surface low in the frontal trough much closer to our latitude. This sort of setup would slow down the cold air mass by several hours, but more importantly allow for the blossoming of cold sector precip on the 700 mb trough axis. With overall a bit better operational and ensemble support for this idea, including roughly half of ECMWF ensemble members and an uptick in support from the GEFS, have similarly to previous shift trended the grids in favor of this. Should subsequent trends continue down this general path, at least some snow accumulation would be possible later Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the deformation axis. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Come on snow....still have no idea where I stand on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Nam is interesting. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us. If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy. The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days. 00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat. I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur. This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore. @jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Icon sticking to it's guns... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Icon gets the low down to 983 in eastern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 NAM looks similar to the Euro. Need another 6-12 hours of frames to see what really happens. But appears to show 1-2” in Iowa. Enough for a white Christmas 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 6z euro only goes 90 hours on weather models but shows a nice deformation band in NE and western Iowa. Looks like it would be a solid 1-3” for many areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12z ICON. Central Iowa does well 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Gfs says everyone is crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 I think the GFS is just broken. It’s basically the only model showing a completely dry frontal passage. It was dead wrong with the last storm. We’ll see what happens with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Gfs showing a few inches up into Canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 This is looking like a "No Show" for my area and maybe for some. Teleconnections are just not favorable here in SEMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Kinda seems like the GFS is on its own now with the far north route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12z Canadian gives a lot if us a couple inches 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 DMX is now siding with the Euro. Yesterday they were siding with the GFS. Lol. Now they are saying basically an inch or less, per this morning's AFD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z ICON. Central Iowa does well I would take this. GFS is a nothing burger for most, however. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 NWS Hastings with an interesting morning disco: Regardless of how QPF evolves, its likely we see a very strong surge of cold air as the amplifying upper flow will be coming nearly straight S out of Canada. Its also likely this surge of cold air will be coming in on strong NNW winds sustained at 20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. This will result in falling temps on Wed and cold wind chills falling to near zero Wed night. This is roughly a 50-60F drop in feels like temps in about 36hrs from Tue aftn to Wed night...a big change for sure! Finally, with the strong winds even the slightest bit of snow will be blown around and could cause visbility issues for anyone traveling on Wed ahead of the Christmas holiday. Overall, it`s not looking like this will amount to a major winter storm locally in terms of snow amounts, but the potential for lgt snow to overlap with strong winds and surge of cold air is concerning given the timing being during potentially busy travel period just before a holiday...and sometimes its the lgt snow events that cause as much or more travel headaches than the big storms. Will insert some wording into HWO and incr awareness of potential via social media for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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