bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Ukie remains very boring. It really hasn’t shown much at all for this storm on any run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: @jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool I wouldn't say it's killing our chances (vibes). It's offering up one outcome that still delivers snow. To say the models are struggling to figure this out is an understatement. Also been stated that in the end, none of the solutions currently shown will have been accurate, and the entire event "collapses" for our region. Personally, I doubt it collapses into a complete dud, but something much less thrilling than early explosive modelling is currently looking strong. That GEM map tho, still shows a very healthy LES signature, and the ICON with a 980's mb SLP in Wisco would work out favorably as well for backside LES storm. I doubt this is really settled until Tuesday. It's even possible that once full sampling occurs, we see models trend back to a more robust scenario. This keeps us guessing and pondering and reminds me of the hype for Dec 2014 Christmas miracle storm which didn't even have a decent cold air blast to work with like we have this time around. For now, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the model ride hoping for the best. Since it is Christmas week, tracking "a chance" > tracking cold and dry. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Ukie remains very boring. It really hasn’t shown much at all for this storm on any run. And that's concerning since it was the one model that called the 11/30-12/1 bomb-storm bluffing that all the others were flashing. In the end it was correct. As said in my other post, this "could" go dud. Let's hope not, but yeah, the UKmet has me a bit nervous. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 I'll accept this for mby..... 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Euro is so weak. But does still manage to drop an inch or so across eastern Iowa. We may eek out a white Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds.... woah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 18z icon still good for many.. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS continues to insist the FROPA will be dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 hours ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds.... That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, jaster220 said: That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see. I am very curious to see how models handle the situation tomorrow as that energy rolls on in from the Pacific. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 18z Euro is almost identical to the 12z. This is 10:1 so amounts are lower, but qpf is about the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro has rain breaking out ahead of the front in E Iowa on the morning of the 23rd with a changeover to snow mid afternoon, ending by mid evening. So this is a quick hitter. Only about 6 hours or so. So we'd need 1/2" per hour rates to get to 3". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS finally coming in line with the euro on the precip associated with the frontal passage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 It appears to be warmer though (shocker) and isn’t Picking up on much snow potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 any maps I can't get anything to load on pivotal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 51 minutes ago, GDR said: LOL. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 At least Nashville has a shot at a White Christmas 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro would give many IA posters a white Christmas- and the Twin Cities (probably 1.5 these amounts) 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Can't be picky 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 ...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Ofc, what happens with the particulars during the following 48-60 hours from Wed. morning is what everybody's interested in. For those of us in the Mitt, this puts the LES back in the spot-light. GRR already mentioned it may be Tuesday before they can put out any snowfall maps with a higher degree of confidence. I like the GEM (so far) and this morning's Euro was decent too. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 GEM thru 1 pm Saturday via Kuchera formula (includes small amts for the incoming clipper). Pushing 7" around here. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: ...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny. Sadly, the GFS won this battle hands down as it was primarily leaning towards the N wave for the most part. Looks like my chances of a White Christmas are dwindling down but yours and other are on the rise. Hey, at least it will FEEL like Winter around here during the holiday. Hoping to see some flakes fly buy prob not here around the Chi. Sweet looking lake effect streamers showing up on the global models at this range. I'm sure once we get close inside 48-72 hours the higher rez models are going to show some nasty streamers coming off of LM. 00z Euro control... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Legitimate blizzard for here on the NAMs. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Festivus Miracle for the Twin Cities!!! (where I will be) 06Z Euro. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Wow significant shift north on the Euro. Guess it’s white flag time down here for a white Christmas 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Festivus Miracle for the Twin Cities!!! (where I will be) 06Z Euro. Yup ill be in St Paul as well. Was gonna go up Wednesday night but I think ill head up Tuesday night instead so I can be there for the entire storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 MSP currently only going with 1-3" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 FGF eyeing blizzard potential across the CWA. The wind will be there, but will the snow? Quote .WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow and strong winds are expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible and winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Where the wind and snow overlap, significant reductions in visibility could develop. * WHERE...Eastern North Dakota into portions of the northwest quarter of Minnesota. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Areas of falling and blowing snow could significantly reduce the visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below to 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This event will occur during the Wednesday morning rush, and it also falls during a busy holiday travel period. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, james1976 said: MSP currently only going with 1-3" 1-3" works for me!!!! White is White!!! 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, james1976 said: MSP currently only going with 1-3" FGF doesn't even have any amounts on the grid yet. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said: FGF doesn't even have any amounts on the grid yet. Neither does MSP. It was in the AFD. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 hope the gfs is wrong as the last storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 NAM shows very little precip with the frontal passage in Iowa and what it does show, is primarily rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Models had been showing precipitation associated with the cold front in addition to the surface low, but now models are changing to primarily precip associated with the surface low, which is why precip chances are drying up further south. 12z ICON reinforcing this idea as well. I believe this will mark 3 straight brown Christmases in Eastern Iowa. The last white Christmas we had, I believe we got an inch or so of snow right before Christmas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Looks like I'll be heading to the TC early for this! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 dang- the differences in the GFS from 06Z to 12Z are unreal. 06Z 12Z Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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