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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

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1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool

I wouldn't say it's killing our chances (vibes). It's offering up one outcome that still delivers snow. To say the models are struggling to figure this out is an understatement. Also been stated that in the end, none of the solutions currently shown will have been accurate, and the entire event "collapses" for our region. Personally, I doubt it collapses into a complete dud, but something much less thrilling than early explosive modelling is currently looking strong. That GEM map tho, still shows a very healthy LES signature, and the ICON with a 980's mb SLP in Wisco would work out favorably as well for backside LES storm. I doubt this is really settled until Tuesday. It's even possible that once full sampling occurs, we see models trend back to a more robust scenario. This keeps us guessing and pondering and reminds me of the hype for Dec 2014 Christmas miracle storm which didn't even have a decent cold air blast to work with like we have this time around. For now, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the model ride hoping for the best. Since it is Christmas week, tracking "a chance" > tracking cold and dry.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Ukie remains very boring. It really hasn’t shown much at all for this storm on any run. 

And that's concerning since it was the one model that called the 11/30-12/1 bomb-storm bluffing that all the others were flashing. In the end it was correct. As said in my other post, this "could" go dud. Let's hope not, but yeah, the UKmet has me a bit nervous.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds....

1.png

That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see.

I am very curious to see how models handle the situation tomorrow as that energy rolls on in from the Pacific.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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51 minutes ago, GDR said:

718BDFF4-7DCA-4445-B398-E8A801470EDD.jpeg

LOL.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny.

 

20201221 0z fh60 conus model compare.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Ofc, what happens with the particulars during the following 48-60 hours from Wed. morning is what everybody's interested in. For those of us in the Mitt, this puts the LES back in the spot-light. GRR already mentioned it may be Tuesday before they can put out any snowfall maps with a higher degree of confidence. I like the GEM (so far) and this morning's Euro was decent too.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEM thru 1 pm Saturday via Kuchera formula (includes small amts for the incoming clipper).

Pushing 7" around here.

 

20201221 0z GEM h138 Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny.

 

20201221 0z fh60 conus model compare.gif

Sadly, the GFS won this battle hands down as it was primarily leaning towards the N wave for the most part.  Looks like my chances of a White Christmas are dwindling down but yours and other are on the rise.  Hey, at least it will FEEL like Winter around here during the holiday.   Hoping to see some flakes fly buy prob not here around the Chi.  Sweet looking lake effect streamers showing up on the global models at this range.  I'm sure once we get close inside 48-72 hours the higher rez models are going to show some nasty streamers coming off of LM.

 

1.png

 

 

00z Euro control...

2.png

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FGF eyeing blizzard potential across the CWA. The wind will be there, but will the snow?

Quote

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and strong winds are expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible and winds could
  gust as high as 50 mph. Where the wind and snow overlap,
  significant reductions in visibility could develop.

* WHERE...Eastern North Dakota into portions of the northwest
  quarter of Minnesota.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Areas of falling and blowing snow could significantly
  reduce the visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below
  to 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This event will occur during the Wednesday
  morning rush, and it also falls during a busy holiday travel
  period.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Models had been showing precipitation associated with the cold front in addition to the surface low, but now models are changing to primarily precip associated with the surface low, which is why precip chances are drying up further south.  12z ICON reinforcing this idea as well.  I believe this will mark 3 straight brown Christmases in Eastern Iowa.  The last white Christmas we had, I believe we got an inch or so of snow right before Christmas.  

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