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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

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High Wind Warnings ( looked at the colors wrong )  from Canadian border all the way  south to Kansas,CO,OK border. Don't remember the last time that happenend. Too bad there is little to no snow on those grounds...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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28 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

NAM has some major frontogenesis here making for an hour or two of heavy rates. Thus the 6" total it's showing.

Some of the features showing up on the higher rez models as we get closer in time are interesting.  I'm liking the odds of intense instability snow showers on the back side of the storm.  Something similar to what I saw back during the PV intrusion of Jan '19.

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23 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

and that works out to avg very near the mean of 8.2". Remember folks - these are 30 year running means - they change each decade. I remember when I first got in the weather business for employment, ( late 90's ) it seemed winter started early and ended early. Ice out on lakes in N.MN (other than 1996) was earlier than expected, now it's later than avg per the  "avg". Take "average" in weather/climate with a grain of salt, for their really is no average weather or climate. It's a man made thing that weather/climate really don't listen or care about.

I have data for Marshall for the last (8) years including the current December and this month will need to deliver another 17.8" to make up the deficit. And that'd be even greater if we included the prior (3) Decembers (10/11/12) which were sub-par to horrid here. I understand how the averages work ofc, and the last decade has indeed replaced December's snows with more robust February and even April snows. With about 25% of my total due to LES here, the lack of cold during a month when Lake Michigan's water is still relatively warm really hurts us in SWMI.

(On a rant note) But geez already, can we at least get a solid January? Even those have been MIA with 4 of the last 5 below normal here. End of rant.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

On occasion, the GFS scores a coupe and it appears it has done so with this system as its been leading the way advertising a dominant N stream wave.  Now that we are getting inside the 4-5 day period, all the other models are latching onto a stripe of snow across the Upper MW and of course the LES potential (which I believe will be rockin').

 

@jaster220 and the rest of the W MI crew should be seeing some awesome LES streamers coming off LM on Christmas Eve/Day.  Very cold 850's should provide ample Delta T's to produce some stout bands along with some nasty wind it should abruptly FEEL like Winter.  There is a ULL feature that tracks over lower MI during the holiday that'll provide extra "umpf"....

1.png

 

 

namconus_z500_vort_ncus_49.png

 

 

I did notice that the 00z NAM 3km showing what looked like post frontal waves of snow shower activity that could add up to a quick "incher" or so of snow it they are intense enough.  Let's see if the models pick up on this in future runs.  I've seen this happen before but at this range its difficult to pin down.  

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_57.png

 

Looking at that snowfall map makes me think "if it wasn't for the big lake, I'd be right in the same dead zone with nice snows to my left and my right". We go from missing to our NW last couple years, to now getting missed east. Worst climo if you're a winter wx hobbiest and hoping for your cold season hobby to deliver a little fun and distraction from #2020 troubles.

Anyways, back to the point of your maps. I like the overnight timing of the CF passage to hopefully encourage a more robust switch to snow as depicted by the NAM and to some extent the GFS. As for the LES, GRR had a most lame overnight AFD any high school student could've written so no help there. My concern is wind direction that yesterday was looking more favorable here (due W or even better, WNW) has now shifted to more of the classic NW due to that S. stream SLP firing up to my east. Would've been much better with the Lk. Superior SLP just continuing on it's trek. 80-ish miles inland from the shoreline (sans notable elevation) it's not a slam dunk to score LES here like it is just one county west. The extreme temp drop (which IWX called a "shocker") will also make for fine grain dry flakes. Remember the event last NYE? Maps had me solidly in the 2-5" range. Figured I'd get 3+ but ended with a rather disappointing wind-blown 2" of dry snow that fell short of a plow-worthy event. Picturing in my head a similar outcome with this. Ofc, there are wild cards that could change that, but those haven't been falling our way so far this season so we'll just have to wait and see. I think the usual snowy places west of me are golden for at least a WWA level event (Kzoo, Van Buren, Allegan cntys). Not wanting to be a downer on this. As Grizz noted, a white Christmas is just that, white. Not quite as exciting as it looked a day ago tho unfortunately.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

You do have the magnet.

I would definitely appreciate near a foot for mby, but I will wait another day (should be fully sampled by late today and especially tomorrow am), just to be on the safe side. So far, looking good!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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48 minutes ago, Niko said:

I would definitely appreciate near a foot for mby, but I will wait another day (should be fully sampled by late today and especially tomorrow am), just to be on the safe side. So far, looking good!

Told ya!

Quote

Hey Niko, while the CPC isn't outlining SEMI for hvy snow, I see the NAM and perhaps the GEM take the storm far enough west to include yby in the swath. That'd be a sweet gift for ya

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Told ya!

 

We will see.....not fully sold on this.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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29 minutes ago, Niko said:

We will see.....not fully sold on this.

I just meant those 2 models. Not the outcome ofc. Still. Ur in game

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

@kush61 may be in a great spot in SW Ontario...what a beautiful set up for a massive trowal like signature...#pukingsnow

 

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_45.png

Can anyone guide me in obtaining a GFS surface map of North America from Jan. 02 1999 ?

That's the last time we had "thunder snow" out this way, along with a 12" snowfall.

I'd like to compare it to this map.

The "massive trowal like signature" of the occluded front sounds interesting.

 

 

Found this "old school" video that is almost as old as I am.

The Occluded Front - Air Masses And Fronts (1962) - YouTube.URL

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020

MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053-
240600-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0005.201223T0900Z-201224T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.BZ.W.0003.201223T0900Z-201224T0300Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Breckenridge, Cavalier, Walhalla,
Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River,
Grand Forks, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland,
Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman,
Rutland, and Wahpeton
328 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches on top of a light glaze of ice. Winds gusting as
  high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.  The
  dangerously cold wind chills as low as 35 below zero could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This event will occur during the
  Wednesday morning rush, and it also falls during a busy
  holiday travel period.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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19 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol. Wtf OAX. I knew they were bad but I didn't think they were THAT bad.

 

11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Umm what? Even if it’s only an inch of snow you’d think the pops would be “likely” with a warning issued.

CABF63C4-8A38-4043-B19F-318C666C1E36.jpeg

Noticed we have the usual holiday week "b" crew Mets writing AFDs and such today. Prolly the same "sub teachers" happening there at OAX too, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Had to read IWX's disco to get the pro-grade breakdown:

Quote

Of greater concern attm is rapid/intense low level thermal troughing
that develops by daybreak Thu across lake Michigan. Primary
difficulty is predominant low level flow trajectory that arises in
response to negatively tilting upper trough axis and where exactly
that tracks over the OH valley. Regardless 12Z consensus offers
broad/deep cyclonic curvature through wrn/nwrn extent of upper low
by Thu evening timed with sewd wrap of departing upper midwest
cyclones mid lvl moisture plume. This also corresponds to maximum
low level thermal trough intensity and should promote multiple
intense snow bands given lake modulated instability which then
continues through Fri am ahead of secondary upper wave rotating
through the lakes. Overlap of the above heralds potential sig lake
effect snow nw Thu night/Fri. However placement/extent of highest
risk area remains uncertain given H5 wave track scatter.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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