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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

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Congrats MSP on reeling in another major winter storm...hope they upgrade into a Blizzard Warning for your metro!  I spoke to one of my good friends and his exact words were "It's about time" for Winter to come back...it's looking like a beast is coming your way!

 

00z Euro...man, that's a nasty defo band that develops on the NW side of the SLP...heck even @james1976may score some snow down his way as well as into DSM and some of our NE peeps.  Quite the changes showing up in just the 24-36 hour period.  These are the type of powerful storms that sneak up on you and deliver the utmost enjoyable surprises!  Enjoy this Beast!

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Boy, the dynamics with this system are incredible...could there be Thundersnow for MSP???  06z NAM 3km showing a nice set up for a brief period whereby the SLP tracks just to the SE and illustrating a trowal like feature pivoting the defo band right over town.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

 

About 43 days ago, back on Nov 10th, we had this same system track right through the same regions...check out the surface map below and compare it to this storm.  Pretty awesome to see how this cycling pattern is coming together.

Nov 10th Surface Anaylsis 3.jpg

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WOW- (date is wrong) but obviously this storm- A major winter storm to impact the area today. Snow, high winds, and blowing snow are likely to begin this afternoon and will cause disruptions to travel and the evening commute. Heavy snow and high winds may cause blizzard conditions and blowing snow across the entire forecast area. Winds may gust up to 60 mph.Tab3FileL.png?5aa520ae7b0ed84b9c6ad75d8f5cf5cc

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Surprise here. Had 1” of snow around 3 AM. Now in a WWA for 1-3” more with winds potentially gusting to 65 mph. As I’m typing, snow has moved back in. Was supposed to go to Lincoln this morning to pick up a car for my daughter. I’ll go another day as we’re having flash freeze conditions. Also, if you’ve driven I 80 across Nebraska, it is very flat and winds this high with snow, is a recipe for disaster on one of the busiest travel days of the year. 

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MPX:

Deterministic models and ensembles have rapidly narrowed in agreement with higher QPF across the entire forecast area. 00Z GEFS have a mean of 0.9" and EPS of 0.7" QPF in the Twin Cities. Solution consensus brings the TROWAL back toward central Minnesota as the 500mb trough becomes more neutral-tilt this afternoon. With a TROWAL developing and strong low to mid level frontogenesis, heavy snowfall rates will be possible. 00z HREF ensemble has a few hours in the late afternoon to evening with over 70 percent probability of 1" in an hour and up to 40 percent for 2" an hour. With winds gusting as high as 55 mph possible, blowing snow and heavy snowfall rates will create blizzard conditions across portions of western, and south central Minnesota.
 

With the trend of higher QPF in the ensembles, I increased snowfall amounts across the board, with the heaviest band expected over the western Twin Cities metro up towards Duluth. There is still some uncertainty on the exact location of the heaviest snow so a minor shift could occur as the forecast evolves this morning, but the window for a significant shift or change is closing quickly. The current forecast has an area of 5 to 9" on a line from Mankato to the Twin Cities and north along I-35. I would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts where the precipitation band sets up and pivots with the sfc low/upper trough.

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Reading on Twitter this morning of accidents all over and whiteout conditions in places. The wet snow overnight has now flash froze and the new snow and extremely high winds are causing major problems. Local weather meteorologist urges people to stay home. Much better conditions this evening and tomorrow. 

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Just now, St Paul Storm said:

12z HRRR with a 16” smasher. RAP with similar amounts, especially just north side of the metro. 

Right over New Brighton. I will miss the falling/blowing - but where I'll be in 48 hours to enjoy Christmas and the snow!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Right over New Brighton. I will miss the falling/blowing - but where I'll be in 48 hours to enjoy Christmas and the snow!!!

Nice! Yep north and west sides of town looking primed. Radar looking good to the west. Should see the rain start in a few hours and then the fun begins. Sounds like James is already in town. He already has his snow gear on! 

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10 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

12z NAM with a 14” swath right through the metro. 3km with a ridiculous 20” total over Ramsey and Hennepin counties for St Paul and Mpls. Probably a tad bit overdone, but fun to look at. 
 

If we get +12” and 50mph gusts I’ll never ask for anything else for Christmas. 

Enjoy the Blitz conditions bud!  That goes for the rest of you in MN...what a storm this is shaping up to be...a quick hitting fierce lil' beast!

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Went downtown with my son to get haircuts. It is nasty. Temp now down to 19 with winds gusting over 50 mph and snow blowing sideways. At times, even in town, visibility drops to less than a block. Travel not advised outside of town as there is a layer of ice under the snow and the wind is blowing vehicles. Probably close to 2” but no way to measure it. Even saw some small drifts. Christmas surprise for sure. 

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53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

L

My area got upgraded to a blizzard warning and we have them. Crazy how fast conditions changed; I went and picked up groceries and snow was just blowing. Then 10 minutes later snow moved in and visibility went down to 1/4 mile or less! The flash freeze turned the roads into a sheet of ice and the wind pushes your vehicle off the road. I can always tell how bad visibility is by looking out my back yard; the town elevator is 3 blocks away! 

IMG_0971.jpg

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@St Paul Storm Yup! I got up to Vadnais Heights last night. Can't wait for this thing to get goin. Can't believe these model runs. Currently 43 with light rain. Very dark outside. 

@Tom yeah I see down in IA I'm riding the edge at my place. Who knows....may even end up being a white Christmas down there. 

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Major snows hit E.Coast, TWC full team coverage with all boots on the ground. True Blizzard hits Upper Midwest, well what do you think. Btw- I guess it's called "Harold". So lame they name storms and no one else even cares. Rant over.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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KLNK actually reporting 1/4 mi visibility rn. I think my house is in between the bands bc it definitely doesn't look like that here. I have to drive to KC in a couple hours so hopefully highway 2 is alright. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Just now, snowstorm83 said:

KLNK actually reporting 1/4 mi visibility rn. I think my house is in between the bands bc it definitely doesn't look like that here. I have to drive to KC in a couple hours so hopefully highway 2 is alright. 

That can be a nasty drive in bad weather. My brother lives on the Kansas side of the KC Metro, so I know Highway 2 and I 29 very well. 

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This is absolutely absurd! Glad to hear this thing is working its magic down in NE! Looks like we are about to get this party started in not too long up here in the Twin Cities. Very curious to see how the HRRR and RAP perform with this because both are showing a TON of snow. Merry Christmas! 

Edited by Stormgeek
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