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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


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7 hours ago, Tom said:

The differences I'm seeing between the ICON vs EURO/UKIE/GFS is the way they are handling the southern energy.  The ICON almost closes off the southern stream energy while all the rest of the models have a sheared out wave.

 

 

icon_z500_vort_us_51.png

 

vs...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

 

 

If we are to see any chance of a storm, we either have the N Stream trend farther south (unlikely) or have the southern energy maintain strength while the northern piece slides east across the N Sub.  The trailing front has been a part of this years LRC where waves like to track up along it so still some time to see the models figure it out.  Last night's 00z Euro was close to doing so but it phases a lot farther east towards SW Ontario/Eastern GL's.  I have seen, however, the Euro trend bigger with the N ATL blocking and digging the trough deeper and farther west each run.

Check out the trends...

1.gif

 

00z Euro...LES signal is looking mighty good for MI peeps and near the U.P...some snow now showing up for N IA...

 

1.png

 

00z Euro Control trying to phase the S Stream...farther east this run across the OHV...

 

2.png

I do like the trends on that 500 mb map. Seems tho that south and east has been a theme this winter, which is taking things the wrong direction with the S. stream wave once again. Not set in stone yet ofc, but it's concerning to see already the "just misses me SE" being flashed.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Myself on the right. GF's son on left. And this is only 2 hours in. Can't imagine how this will be later!

12z Euro Control has a different look to it compared to the OP but further south with the precip.  

Just upgraded to a blizzard warning! Welcome to the blizz!  Now up to 12” in the point. Yowza! 

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Seems like all the models starting to show some good signals of phasing the S stream energy.  At this stage, that’s what I’d like to see and from here on out.  Next thing I’m looking for is a strong N ATL Ridge which will help shift this baby farther west.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I do like the trends on that 500 mb map. Seems tho that south and east has been a theme this winter, which is taking things the wrong direction with the S. stream wave once again. Not set in stone yet ofc, but it's concerning to see already the "just misses me SE" being flashed.

Yeah the misses SE have been brutal. Trusting these lows to track in the right direction isn't panning out - im hoping LES bails me out. Below is what NWS is thinking for my area. I have quite literally ~never~ experienced a white Christmas. It would truly be amazing if this came true, especially it being my first winter in the great lakes area, and I would have no problem disregarding the abysmal snow fall totals thus far if it came into fruition. 

-- Lake Effect Snow Machine Cranks to Life into Christmas Eve --

The main show in the 7 day forecast is the plunge into Arctic air
and the threat for lake snows down wind of Lake Michigan. An
Arctic front will plow through the area Wednesday night (23rd into
the 24th). Models are still placing us on the warm side of the
system initially on Wednesday, so any synoptic snow swath looks to
miss us well to the north and west over Northern Wisconsin and the
Upper Peninsula. Lake effect snow looks to get cranking Wednesday
night, lasting through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 850mb
temperatures drop to around -20C. That will push delta T`s into
the extreme category in the middle 20s C. Loads of instability
obviously along with deeper moisture via the upper trough
overhead and shortwaves moving through to enhance lift. All
ingredients look to be coming together for some healthy lake
snows towards Lake Michigan. So, the entire area will not see
significant snows, but for areas along and west of Highway 131 its
looking more likely. Travel will be impacted given low
temperatures and accumulating snow. Later forecasts will provide
more details as we get closer to the event. GFS BUFKIT overviews
indicate a very healthy environment for lake effect snow. The
Northwest flow in place should keep things confined mainly west of
131. That said there is plenty of time for the models to shift
the flow a bit. Stay tuned...
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Comparing last nights 00z GEFS vs today's 12z GEFS...both runs starting to see a potential S Stream system cutting up near OHV???  I remember tracking a storm this season (forgot when it was) but the GEFS were the first to see the phase which was way east and the Euro was way west.  I think @Nikowas the only member that got anything from that storm system.  Anyhow, it's starting to seem like the models are showing a similar set up.  Hopefully the upstream blocking is stronger as we get closer.  If that Monday clipper tracks into New England and bombs out off the SE coast of Canada, that in turn, can pump ridge even stronger near Greenland/N ATL, which can help the entire pattern dig and slow.

 

snod.conus.png

 

VS...

 

snod.conus.png

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Comparing last nights 00z GEFS vs today's 12z GEFS...both runs starting to see a potential S Stream system cutting up near OHV???  I remember tracking a storm this season (forgot when it was) but the GEFS were the first to see the phase which was way east and the Euro was way west.  I think @Nikowas the only member that got anything from that storm system.  Anyhow, it's starting to seem like the models are showing a similar set up.  Hopefully the upstream blocking is stronger as we get closer.  If that Monday clipper tracks into New England and bombs out off the SE coast of Canada, that in turn, can pump ridge even stronger near Greenland/N ATL, which can help the entire pattern dig and slow.

 

snod.conus.png

 

VS...

 

snod.conus.png

Yes sir....I was the winner here. So far this Met Winter, I have been liked by Ma Nature. 😀

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro now showing a classic anafront situation here.  That would be amazing.  Not something we see too frequently around here.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

I think the last time I saw a system like this with precip developing behind an arctic front was back in '13-'14 or even Jan '19 during the PV intrusion...

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Wow, perfect scenario for a White Christmas for most of Nebraska. I'm driving down to KC on the afternoon of the 23rd to fly to my family, so hopefully this situation wouldn't complicate things haha. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Euro snow totals are light downwind of the lakes, but I'd have to think that set up would give WMI one heck of a LES event.   Which models pick up LES the best?  Usually don't see much of the models pick up on it in the long range, even with a great set up.  

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Merry Christmas...what a trough centered over the GL's...I'm digging the blocking getting stronger hooking over the top...

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

After seeing today's 12z Euro run, I'm getting drawn in and fits the overall LRC pattern quite well...you can see the big difference in today's run showing the energy phasing earlier...baby stepping...

1.gif

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Several days away which is good and liking the evolution of this storm. Phasing is always a problem but a step in the right direction. At least flakes will be flying for most of us which is better than having a brown Christmas.

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59 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Euro snow totals are light downwind of the lakes, but I'd have to think that set up would give WMI one heck of a LES event.   Which models pick up LES the best?  Usually don't see much of the models pick up on it in the long range, even with a great set up.  

Also would like to know this! 

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I like the fact that a strong ridge will be building on the WC. That bolds well for a trough for us, but question is, how strong will the low be and which track it takes. Odds are taking this low as in inland runner and close enough to strike SEMI. Hopefully, it can go more west to include some more peeps on here.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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4.6" on the Euro Control for CR at 10:1, If there is a Kuchera map for that I'd love to see it.  Have to imagine it would be 6+" easily for CR.  I hope the Euro is sniffing out a change here and not just a one run fluke.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Both DVN and DMX pretty much dismissing the Euro at this point.  DVN only mentioned the GFS and GEFS, you would think they would have learned from the horrific performance of the GFS on the last storm.  Regardless if the Euro continues to show snow for another run or two, they won't be able to continue to ignore it.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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4 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Yeah the misses SE have been brutal. Trusting these lows to track in the right direction isn't panning out - im hoping LES bails me out. Below is what NWS is thinking for my area. I have quite literally ~never~ experienced a white Christmas. It would truly be amazing if this came true, especially it being my first winter in the great lakes area, and I would have no problem disregarding the abysmal snow fall totals thus far if it came into fruition. 



-- Lake Effect Snow Machine Cranks to Life into Christmas Eve --

The main show in the 7 day forecast is the plunge into Arctic air
and the threat for lake snows down wind of Lake Michigan. An
Arctic front will plow through the area Wednesday night (23rd into
the 24th). Models are still placing us on the warm side of the
system initially on Wednesday, so any synoptic snow swath looks to
miss us well to the north and west over Northern Wisconsin and the
Upper Peninsula. Lake effect snow looks to get cranking Wednesday
night, lasting through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 850mb
temperatures drop to around -20C. That will push delta T`s into
the extreme category in the middle 20s C. Loads of instability
obviously along with deeper moisture via the upper trough
overhead and shortwaves moving through to enhance lift. All
ingredients look to be coming together for some healthy lake
snows towards Lake Michigan. So, the entire area will not see
significant snows, but for areas along and west of Highway 131 its
looking more likely. Travel will be impacted given low
temperatures and accumulating snow. Later forecasts will provide
more details as we get closer to the event. GFS BUFKIT overviews
indicate a very healthy environment for lake effect snow. The
Northwest flow in place should keep things confined mainly west of
131. That said there is plenty of time for the models to shift
the flow a bit. Stay tuned...

I will be more excited for you than me since it would be your first time to experience a white Christmas. We had a beaut 3 yrs ago. Storm brought 5-8" area-wide. Trend is your friend today. Hope it keeps up.

Short range models do normally show more accurate LES signals than the globals. NAM in range will start to get amped for that signal.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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CPC not convinced anyone is getting decent snow yet. At some point I think they will have to take their best shot at who.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Also would like to know this! 

Generally speaking, any LES shown on the global models is a really strong signal. Don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but I've seen LES hints at global map range turn into a big deal by the day of event. And, while GRR can get a little giddy over a LES scenario, they do a pretty good job with them as that's their focus. When they mention heavy snow that usually means code for 8-12+ at a minimum. Depending on whether we do get a phasing storm in our region, this could be impressive by anyone's standard.

Quote

There is growing confidence in lake effect snow showers and wind
chills dropping to near zero Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Snow
amounts could be heavy west of US 131 in northwest flow.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GEM does phase the S stream wave, just too far east for anyone but SEMI (or further east). Follow-on LES signal gets mby to a decent place.

 

20201219 0z GEM h240 Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

-AO taking shape on Euro and gradually moving things S-

No kidding. Chicago special at h138 lol

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Guessing parts of the E.Coast that got tons of snow would have some flooding issues if the Euro comes to play with both temps near 50F and rainfall. Yuck!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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BAM seems to think Indy may reel in a storm with this pattern. If temps were more typical of winter...but who knows. It's funny because their snowfall map is not impressive for there, mostly east of them again.

20201218 BAMwx Christmas storm tweet.PNG

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

euro much warmer than gfs on incoming arctic air

Because it's not bombing, it's more typical system. Still so many possible outcomes being flashed

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z Euro...

1.png

 

The BIG difference this run compared to the previous runs off the Euro is the separation between the N wave and S wave...is this a trend or just a fluke run???  The worry is that blocking disappears right around this time just west of Greenland that can increase the flow and allow the N stream zip across while the southern energy cuts off the main flow in future runs and doesn't really phase into a strong storm.

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

The 00z Ukie is doing the same thing...

500hv.conus.png

 

 

Albeit it minor, but there are subtle changes developing across the central Plains into the MW/Lower Lakes in the 00z EPS...it looks like there are more members trying to "fill in the gap" from CO into KS/MO up into the GL's.  The 00z Euro control heading in that direction as well.

2.png

5.png

 

Actually, I looked at all the 51 ensemble members and there are clearly many more members developing the S wave into a stronger system.  Signs pointing that the models may be honing in on the southern wave.

 

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06z ICON trending towards the other models and some suggesting separation of both streams and focusing more on the southern energy tracking into the LRC's exhibit "The 4 Corners Slot"...how many times have we seen closed ULL's tracking into the TX Pan Handle/OK region???  

 

icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

 

icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

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