Jump to content

DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


kush61

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Sadly, the GFS won this battle hands down as it was primarily leaning towards the N wave for the most part.  Looks like my chances of a White Christmas are dwindling down but yours and other are on the rise.  Hey, at least it will FEEL like Winter around here during the holiday.   Hoping to see some flakes fly buy prob not here around the Chi.  Sweet looking lake effect streamers showing up on the global models at this range.  I'm sure once we get close inside 48-72 hours the higher rez models are going to show some nasty streamers coming off of LM.

 

1.png

 

 

00z Euro control...

2.png

Very sad for all the Chicago hopeful including yourself. Just crazy what a train wreck December has become around this region. I thought a year ago was bad but this is making the (3) 2"+ events I got then look stellar by comparison. For here, I am liking the signatures on the Euro & GEM runs. It's all about wind direction with the LES. While the earlier event had NNW winds and only clipped far SWMI, this looks to be much friendlier and indicates about the best scenario with a "hit zone" between the I-94 & I-96 corridors which would likely include the most populace locales. Impressive that the Euro carries the 2" line almost to Detroit. Niko may even get a nice coating if that plays out. Actually, knowing Detroit's streak lately I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow got more than here. Seen that happen several times with LES over the last 3 or 4 winters. Anyways bud, hope you're having a decent holiday week ahead in spite of the potential storm failure.

  • Sad 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every model that is showing precip with the cold front is now showing rain out ahead of and along the front, no longer showing snow behind it, or very very little if any.  Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted.  The Euro fooled me again. :P Not sure any model handled this particularly well.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Very sad for all the Chicago hopeful including yourself. Just crazy what a train wreck December has become around this region. I thought a year ago was bad but this is making the (3) 2"+ events I got then look stellar by comparison. For here, I am liking the signatures on the Euro & GEM runs. It's all about wind direction with the LES. While the earlier event had NNW winds and only clipped far SWMI, this looks to be much friendlier and indicates about the best scenario with a "hit zone" between the I-94 & I-96 corridors which would likely include the most populace locales. Impressive that the Euro carries the 2" line almost to Detroit. Niko may even get a nice coating if that plays out. Actually, knowing Detroit's streak lately I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow got more than here. Seen that happen several times with LES over the last 3 or 4 winters. Anyways bud, hope you're having a decent holiday week ahead in spite of the potential storm failure.

Almost 1 month into winter and nothing to show for it except for a handful of members getting some sort of the white stuff. I know the long range shows some promise into January but the modeling is terrible and most likely will be incorrect so except for maybe a dusting here and there I see no reason why the current status would not continue as is.

  • Thanks 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Tony said:

Almost 1 month into winter and nothing to show for it except for a handful of members getting some sort of the white stuff. I know the long range shows some promise into January but the modeling is terrible and most likely will be incorrect so except for maybe a dusting here and there I see no reason why the current status would not continue as is.

The past 2-3 winters, Chicago area doesn’t get the snow chances cranking up until mid-January (not counting the Halloween storm), and they last until the end of April. Not sure which hurricane/tsunami threw off the axis of the season, but feels like Christmases have fewer chances to be white around here lately.

Average for December in Chicago is 8.2 inches. Dec. 2019 had 2 inches of snow, 2018 had 1.4 inches, and 2017 with 5.3. Last time it was above average was 2016 with 17.7 inches.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/lot/Chicago_Dec_Snow_Rankings

  • Like 1

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

The past 2-3 winters, Chicago area doesn’t get the snow chances cranking up until mid-January (not counting the Halloween storm), and they last until the end of April. Not sure which hurricane/tsunami threw off the axis of the season, but feels like Christmases have fewer chances to be white around here lately.

Average for December in Chicago is 8.2 inches. Dec. 2019 had 2 inches of snow, 2018 had 1.4 inches, and 2017 with 5.3. Last time it was above average was 2016 with 17.7 inches.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/lot/Chicago_Dec_Snow_Rankings

and that works out to avg very near the mean of 8.2". Remember folks - these are 30 year running means - they change each decade. I remember when I first got in the weather business for employment, ( late 90's ) it seemed winter started early and ended early. Ice out on lakes in N.MN (other than 1996) was earlier than expected, now it's later than avg per the  "avg". Take "average" in weather/climate with a grain of salt, for their really is no average weather or climate. It's a man made thing that weather/climate really don't listen or care about.

  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is so heartbreaking for me.  Showed 2-3" for days, now shifted just off to my northwest.  I was perfectly content with 2" and a white Christmas.  I suppose it could still wobble this way, but unlikely.  Omaha does nice on this run, wherever our NE posters are.  They should be happy.  

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it is, considering most of this snow will be falling in a CAA environment.  Ratios will likely increase rapidly shortly after the snow starts as colder air continues to move in.  If winds are very strong though, it could cut flake size down and reduce amounts.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I think it is, considering most of this snow will be falling in a CAA environment.  Ratios will likely increase rapidly shortly after the snow starts as colder air continues to move in.  If winds are very strong though, it could cut flake size down and reduce amounts.  

Oh yeah I forgot about the wind. That will hurt it. Will be nice to see wind driven snow though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is kuchera reasonable for this set up with the cold air? 

I think some of the QPF is graciously being handed as snow (mix)  while melting in C.IA. Don't see 2" here. I guess it depends on how often one clears the snowboard. Nearly 1/2  the QPF will be falling with temps above 32F. I cut this map totals in half.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro is so heartbreaking for me.  Showed 2-3" for days, now shifted just off to my northwest.  I was perfectly content with 2" and a white Christmas.  I suppose it could still wobble this way, but unlikely.  Omaha does nice on this run, wherever our NE posters are.  They should be happy.  

Local mets are really downplaying this event, most of them are expecting snow showers with an inch or less of accumulation. Not going to get too excited about this until there's more model agreement on what is going to happen with this system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bryan1117 said:

Local mets are really downplaying this event, most of them are expecting snow showers with an inch or less of accumulation. Not going to get too excited about this until there's more model agreement on what is going to happen with this system. 

I would agree with your local Mets. Same here in DMX. This is a 1-2" MAX event. But MAYBE- just enough to cover the ground with 1" for a White Christmas. Usually these types of systems really squeeze out all the  moisture anafront to maybe add another .5" or so- wind being an issue.

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I think some of the QPF is graciously being handed as snow (mix)  while melting in C.IA. Don't see 2" here. I guess it depends on how often one clears the snowboard. Nearly 1/2  the QPF will be falling with temps above 32F. I cut this map totals in half.

Bummer. Oh well. Better than no snow, especially right before Christmas 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FGF waving the white flag on blizzard potential everywhere except maybe the Northern tier of counties.

Quote

There is still a lot of spread among the ensemble and
deterministic models in the system moving out into the Plains
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS continues to close off the
upper low over eastern SD, while the other deterministic models
are more open with the wave and less bullish with the precip.
Uncertainty is still high with the amount of snow we will get,
which could be anywhere from an inch or two to warning level snows
of over 6 inches across our northern counties. With high
uncertainty, will continue to message the impacts from blowing
snow rather than any accumulations.

Of more certainty is the wind for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
There will be a large amount of cold air advection on the backside
of the trough, and even the more open wave model solutions wrap up
the low very well over MN/WI. There will be a tight pressure
gradient with plenty of height rises and cold air advection. Winds
will be up to around 30 kts sustained in eastern ND, with gusts to
around 50 kts possible.

There will be plenty of wind, and at least some falling snow to
create poor visibilities for a brief period. Of bigger question is
if we will get enough snow accumulation for a more sustained
period of low visibilities as more snow gets lofted. That is still
very uncertain, and there is not enough snow on the ground to
blow. Will continue to maintain the watch, and message high winds
and the potential for low visibility wherever snow is falling.
Very cold temperatures that will be falling throughout the day on
Wednesday and wind chills down to the -20 to -30 range will be
possible even during daylight hours.

 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, bud2380 said:

image.thumb.png.dd21317c218e484055df8873cd5b5fea.png

Somehow the entire state of Michigan is white. Believe it when I see it, lol

  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't mind mostly missing out on this one for a few reasons:

1) Manitoba needs the snow more than we do. They also have bare ground.

2) An inch or two is better than nothing.

3) I'll be gone for this storm anyway🙄

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I don't mind mostly missing out on this one for a few reasons:

1) Manitoba needs the snow more than we do. They also have bare ground.

2) An inch or two is better than nothing.

3) I'll be gone for this storm anyway🙄

And right as I say that, the 00Z NAMs just came out and they are JUICED. Like, amounts approaching 6" on the back side.

  • lol 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Globals tonight seem in-step putting a sub-990 mb SLP around the tip of the Kewenaw or in Superior at h54. That's pretty consistent. While I'm still "in the hunt" for a white Christmas, the LES scenario is less than ideal around WMI. Unless things improve, this will be what I call a dry or pure LES which means simply cold air blowing over warm water and no triggers coming thru to add some lift and dynamics. Flakes will be tiny causing accum's to suffer. Hope I'm wrong and it won't take too much to at least meet the criteria for the big holiday cheer.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Globals tonight seem in-step putting a sub-990 mb SLP around the tip of the Kewenaw or in Superior at h54. That's pretty consistent. While I'm still "in the hunt" for a white Christmas, the LES scenario is less than ideal around WMI. Unless things improve, this will be what I call a dry or pure LES which means simply cold air blowing over warm water and no triggers coming thru to add some lift and dynamics. Flakes will be tiny causing accum's to suffer. Hope I'm wrong and it won't take too much to at least meet the criteria for the big holiday cheer.

May have been premature on that bolded sentence. APX had a nice write-up and they actually like the parameters (at least up there) and did mention energy vorts rotating thru causing periods of enhancement. Let's see what my office details in the overnight disco.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On occasion, the GFS scores a coupe and it appears it has done so with this system as its been leading the way advertising a dominant N stream wave.  Now that we are getting inside the 4-5 day period, all the other models are latching onto a stripe of snow across the Upper MW and of course the LES potential (which I believe will be rockin').

 

@jaster220 and the rest of the W MI crew should be seeing some awesome LES streamers coming off LM on Christmas Eve/Day.  Very cold 850's should provide ample Delta T's to produce some stout bands along with some nasty wind it should abruptly FEEL like Winter.  There is a ULL feature that tracks over lower MI during the holiday that'll provide extra "umpf"....

1.png

 

 

namconus_z500_vort_ncus_49.png

 

 

I did notice that the 00z NAM 3km showing what looked like post frontal waves of snow shower activity that could add up to a quick "incher" or so of snow it they are intense enough.  Let's see if the models pick up on this in future runs.  I've seen this happen before but at this range its difficult to pin down.  

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_57.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...