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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


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Myself on the right. GF's son on left. And this is only 2 hours in. Can't imagine how this will be later!

12z Euro Control has a different look to it compared to the OP but further south with the precip.  

Just upgraded to a blizzard warning! Welcome to the blizz!  Now up to 12” in the point. Yowza! 

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Just measured a solid 2" in 2 hours. Zero visibility down the street. Literally just ran around the yard like a kid.

I just tried driving to the store for some beer. I got onto the main road and for the first time ever I thought to myself ‘I should not be on the road right now.’ I can’t believe how intense it is out there. 

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1 minute ago, St Paul Storm said:

I just tried driving to the store for some beer. I got onto the main road and for the first time ever I thought to myself ‘I should not be on the road right now.’ I can’t believe how intense it is out there. 

I got my beer run in this morning!

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4 minutes ago, Stormgeek said:

One thing that is a bit concerning right now up this way is the fact that the snow that is falling is very fine. Gets blown around a ton, but might not stack up as well.

The wind is probably fracturing the dendrites a bit for sure. But, it’s a blizzard, so you take the good with the bad I guess. It’s fun though! 

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Snow showers are showing up on the radar as far south as Kansas.  Maybe we get some flakes further south afterall.  

Noticed same thing. Also snowing ( flurries) just WnW of DSM. Wasn't supposed to be this early. Take what a man can get!!

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The most intense drive I have ever been apart of. Needed to take my family to the in-laws 20 miles away. Well we have a 3 mile stretch out of town that is treeless and open land for miles. Visibility was zero that whole stretch and had to pull off. Luckily for us the gravel roads was much easier sledding… This is me parked at the 3 mile corner. There were cars and cops parked on the median and you cant see the lights!

A3B95770-AB6D-4D08-80BB-F133A2DB8D7C.jpeg

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Man, Minneapolis is getting slapped in the face w this storm. Good friend of my there just told me that they are closing the interstates and advising everyone to stay off the roads, unless it is only an emergency. Good stuff happening there. Enjoy it!

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 18.3"

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Looking good for Kzoo and west. My best shot here inland looks to be Christmas morning/day.

In the meantime, could always do a small chase to my old region in far SWMI. They're looking good.

Winter Storm Watch


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
923 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

MIZ077-078-241030-
/O.CON.KIWX.WS.A.0003.201224T1800Z-201226T0000Z/
Berrien-Cass MI-
Including the cities of Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph,
Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac,
Cassopolis, and Marcellus
923 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
  10 inches with locally higher amounts around 1 foot possible.

* WHERE...Berrien and Cass MI Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become difficult by Thursday evening.
  The hazardous conditions will impact travel on Christmas Eve
  and Christmas Day.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected Thursday
  evening through Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Seeing a lot of 6-9" reports around the MSP metro...ya'll done well up there...nice base to build upon as winter rolls on...some of the vids I saw from a buddy of mine that lives on the west side were just eye candy.  I forgot what it feels like to experience the wind and snow combo.  Congrats!

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Alerts for: City of Hamilton

Warnings

4:36 AM EST Thursday 24 December 2020
Snowfall warning in effect for:

  • City of Hamilton

A snowfall of 10 to 20 cm is expected tonight.

Hazards:
10 to 20 cm of snow
Quickly accumulating snow at times

Timing:
This evening through Friday mid-morning

Impacts:
Poor road conditions due to black ice and snow accumulation

Discussion:
Temperatures will fall this afternoon and rain will transition to snow. The snow may become heavy at times this evening and overnight, with snowfall rates of 2 to 3 cm per hour possible at times. Snow should gradually ease into scattered flurries Friday morning.

Some uncertainty remains regarding total snowfall amounts, however, for much of the Niagara Region and areas just west, it appears 15 cm is likely enough to warrant a snowfall warning.

Note: Environment Canada's criteria for Snowfall Warnings is 15 cm of snow in 12 hours or less.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations.

 

Aww geeze... I'll be able to get the sled out for a run.

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4 hours ago, kush61 said:

Alerts for: City of Hamilton

Warnings

4:36 AM EST Thursday 24 December 2020
Snowfall warning in effect for:

  • City of Hamilton

A snowfall of 10 to 20 cm is expected tonight.

Hazards:
10 to 20 cm of snow
Quickly accumulating snow at times

Timing:
This evening through Friday mid-morning

Impacts:
Poor road conditions due to black ice and snow accumulation

Discussion:
Temperatures will fall this afternoon and rain will transition to snow. The snow may become heavy at times this evening and overnight, with snowfall rates of 2 to 3 cm per hour possible at times. Snow should gradually ease into scattered flurries Friday morning.

Some uncertainty remains regarding total snowfall amounts, however, for much of the Niagara Region and areas just west, it appears 15 cm is likely enough to warrant a snowfall warning.

Note: Environment Canada's criteria for Snowfall Warnings is 15 cm of snow in 12 hours or less.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations.

 

Aww geeze... I'll be able to get the sled out for a run.

Whaddya know? Starting the thread a week in advance paid off lol

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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19 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Whaddya know? Starting the thread a week in advance paid off lol

"He's a sly one, Mr. Grinch"

Tbh, I think that was his intention all along, knowing they have the magnet over that way this season, lol.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Prolly the ONLY one in the sub who cares to post (whatitdo? where are you??) on the remaining 3 days of this "storm" thd, but here goes. First map is the ultimate example of being in a screw zone sandwich that the models had trended to. Thankfully, some of the SR guidance has come back around to a (slightly) better outcome option here (2nd image) such as the NMM. GRR's map concurs, showing me back in the 1-2" total range (after saying yesterday, no accum's expected) here (last image). @Tom how does one put text in between images exactly?

 

20201222 NAM 12z h84 Snow KCH.png

20201224 0z WRF-NMM h42 Surf.png

20201224 GRR LES snowfall f-cast.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Prolly the ONLY one in the sub who cares to post (whatitdo? where are you??) on the remaining 3 days of this "storm" thd, but here goes. First map is the ultimate example of being in a screw zone sandwich that the models had trended to. Thankfully, some of the SR guidance has come back around to a (slightly) better outcome option here (2nd image) such as the NMM. GRR's map concurs, showing me back in the 1-2" total range (after saying yesterday, no accum's expected) here (last image). @Tom how does one put text in between images exactly?

 

20201222 NAM 12z h84 Snow KCH.png

20201224 0z WRF-NMM h42 Surf.png

20201224 GRR LES snowfall f-cast.png

You have to first upload the images, then once you have done so, take the cursor to where you want to place the image and hit the (+) option on the image you just uploaded.  You can manually upload it after text that you have written.

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Christmas surprise gift?? 12z NMM even more robust. Brings back the W flow Friday night/Sat morning and keeps an I-94 streamer scenario going. Surely, if this were to verify, there'd be an increase in totals here, and perhaps get added to the WWA, who knows?

1314035708_2020122412zNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fh29-48.gif

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Christmas surprise gift?? 12z NMM even more robust. Brings back the W flow Friday night/Sat morning and keeps an I-94 streamer scenario going. Surely, if this were to verify, there'd be an increase in totals here, and perhaps get added to the WWA, who knows?

1314035708_2020122412zNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fh29-48.gif

Hope you score amigo!  I was watching some of the higher rez models last night before bed and thought to myself "Jaster is going to wake up tomorrow morning a bit more optimistic."  Those streamers look legit to put down some intense bursts of snow.

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13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Christmas surprise gift?? 12z NMM even more robust. Brings back the W flow Friday night/Sat morning and keeps an I-94 streamer scenario going. Surely, if this were to verify, there'd be an increase in totals here, and perhaps get added to the WWA, who knows?

1314035708_2020122412zNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fh29-48.gif

Good luck buddy!

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hope you score amigo!  I was watching some of the higher rez models last night before bed and thought to myself "Jaster is going to wake up tomorrow morning a bit more optimistic."  Those streamers look legit to put down some intense bursts of snow.

Thx bud! Yeah, bad trends at least stopped and reversed a little here. Key will be if there's enough dynamics left by tomorrow night or not? Overnight AFD says "no", but they could update ofc. Hoping so. In the meantime, one of the regulars is writing decent disco's again so that's refreshing. Best jack-zone(s) should have a winter wonderland by Christmas night. Good old GRR WWA for a "footer" lol

Quote

-Heaviest snows tonight into Christmas morning at lakeshore

All signs still point to the heaviest lake effect snow bands
occurring tonight into Christmas morning in a 330 flow pattern
with increased inversion heights. Low level convergence is
maximized in Van Buren county and the wrn portions of Ottawa,
Allegan, and Kalamazoo counties. Another area of enhanced
convergence sets up over Mason and Oceana counties tonight, and
this band looks as though it may have a Lake Superior connection.

0-2KM Theta-E lapse rates even go negative between midnight and 8
am and potential exists for inch per hour snows in the heaviest
bands during this time. Woudn`t be surprised to see a localized
report near a foot if/where a dominant band sets up and persists
tonight.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Prolly the ONLY one in the sub who cares to post (whatitdo? where are you??) on the remaining 3 days of this "storm" thd, but here goes. First map is the ultimate example of being in a screw zone sandwich that the models had trended to. Thankfully, some of the SR guidance has come back around to a (slightly) better outcome option here (2nd image) such as the NMM. GRR's map concurs, showing me back in the 1-2" total range (after saying yesterday, no accum's expected) here (last image). @Tom how does one put text in between images exactly?

 

20201222 NAM 12z h84 Snow KCH.png

20201224 0z WRF-NMM h42 Surf.png

20201224 GRR LES snowfall f-cast.png

Here in kzoo we've had around 1/2 - 3/4 inch so far, gusty winds preventing accumulation. But I must say it's amazing just to see any white stuff floating around this time of year!

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8 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Here in kzoo we've had around 1/2 - 3/4 inch so far, gusty winds preventing accumulation. But I must say it's amazing just to see any white stuff floating around this time of year!

Nice. It should get a lot more interesting there overnight into Christmas morning for Santa! (and you too) 😁

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like KLNK ended up with 1". I would've thought it would be more like 2", but I left town in the middle of it. Regardless, yesterday driving between SE Lincoln and Syrcacuse, NE was the scariest winter driving experience for this southern boy. Literally didn't know if there's anyone stopped in front of me or if the road is straight. I'd be trying to go 50 when I could and there's still people speeding past me. They're a lot more confident than I am lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 32.2" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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This is the heaviest snow I think I've shoveled in a few years. Not necessarily because of the accumulation but that rain in the beginning and the wind did no favors. That bottom layer was very heavy. Id agree with @St Paul Storm prolly 7-8" a good bet. This was a classic winter storm and I'm glad I was here to experience it.

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Nice. It should get a lot more interesting there overnight into Christmas morning for Santa! (and you too) 😁

Hope it's still there but looking more and more like i won't see more than an inch or two out this thing. cant complain, best christmas weather ive ever had :). The wait for the big one continues tho...

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2 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Hope it's still there but looking more and more like i won't see more than an inch or two out this thing. cant complain, best christmas weather ive ever had :). The wait for the big one continues tho...

Huh?? This hasn't even begun for Kzoo. I think the ULL that swipes SEMI may actually be slowing the timing up a bit from the NWS's earlier thinking. You should still do well when everything's a wrap.

Those in the Warning bullseye, ofc that's going to be sweet to wake up to. IWX going as high as 15"

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas along and west of a Holland to Paw
  Paw line, including I-196 will see the heaviest snow
  accumulations later this evening through Friday morning. 1 to 2
  inches per hour are likely under the bands, with some blowing
  and drifting snow expected to reduce visibilities to near zero
  at times.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 11.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 6.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Huh?? This hasn't even begun for Kzoo. I think the ULL that swipes SEMI may actually be slowing the timing up a bit from the NWS's earlier thinking. You should still do well when everything's a wrap.

Those in the Warning bullseye, ofc that's going to be sweet to wake up to. IWX going as high as 15"


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas along and west of a Holland to Paw
  Paw line, including I-196 will see the heaviest snow
  accumulations later this evening through Friday morning. 1 to 2
  inches per hour are likely under the bands, with some blowing
  and drifting snow expected to reduce visibilities to near zero
  at times.

Would be very pleased to have been wrong w that sentiment lol. But i was saying that based on nws changed description on snowfall accumulations for christmas day from 4 inches to 1 for whatever reason. When are the heaviest bands supposedly coming through? 

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