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What are the dynamics causing this La Nina to behave more like a fing El Nino?


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Besides 2000=2001 this is the worst La Nina I have ever seen bar none yet several times it appeared  we were on the right track! The PNA even got down to like negative 2 but the effects didn't seem to show up>  Phil what are your rambling thoughts?

 

Our coldest stretch so far is mid November and I think that was our 'winter' and we are now back to where we were in early November only in late Dec instead.  The patterns have flipped back to El Nino mode and I still see the 'blob' there causing the semi permanent high pressure that forces the storms to steer away from us to our north.  Until our models are fixed with the blob in mind they will continue to remain 'broken' and giving us false scenarios though granted if it's really strong enough it may over ride the blob effect temporary.

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9 hours ago, Link said:

Besides 2000=2001 this is the worst La Nina I have ever seen bar none yet several times it appeared  we were on the right track! The PNA even got down to like negative 2 but the effects didn't seem to show up>  Phil what are your rambling thoughts?

 

Our coldest stretch so far is mid November and I think that was our 'winter' and we are now back to where we were in early November only in late Dec instead.  The patterns have flipped back to El Nino mode and I still see the 'blob' there causing the semi permanent high pressure that forces the storms to steer away from us to our north.  Until our models are fixed with the blob in mind they will continue to remain 'broken' and giving us false scenarios though granted if it's really strong enough it may over ride the blob effect temporary.

What makes you think this is acting like an El Nino?  Are you aware that La Ninas are typically backloaded, meaning we usually don't see what we think of as La Nina weather until after the new year?  The blob is actually pretty weak this year compared to what we saw several years ago, when SST's were exceptionally warm in that area.  This year it is just a little warmer than normal, and not affecting our weather.  And seeing an AR event is very typical for a Nina.  If the blob were causing storms to go so far north, why are we doing so well in terms of precipitation?  Storms this month are a little warmer than normal because they are coming from the Central Pacific, not the North Pacific, and that is well away from the "blob"   In fact, the PDO is negative right now, not positive.  

pdoindex.png

I think some have this unrealistic expectation that a Nina winter means cold and snow from the beginning of winter until the end.  If, in a couple of months, the weather hasn't changed, then maybe there is something to what you are saying.  

Here is Pete Parsons forecast, just issued yesterday.

Unlike the past two winters, which had El Niño conditions, La Niña conditions should promote stormy periods along with an increased chance of “extreme” weather events. n Expect a transition to generally colder and wetter weather than average with ample mountain snowpacks. n Valley cold-air outbreaks and snowfall are not guaranteed, but the chances for such events are elevated. n Heightened chances for windstorms and flooding across western Oregon, especially along the coast.

Seasonal Climate Forecast: January-March 2021 (oregon.gov)

And don't forget NOAA is also predicting colder and wetter than normal for the next 3 months, and that forecast came out yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 12/18/2020 at 12:13 PM, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

What makes you think this is acting like an El Nino?  Are you aware that La Ninas are typically backloaded, meaning we usually don't see what we think of as La Nina weather until after the new year?  The blob is actually pretty weak this year compared to what we saw several years ago, when SST's were exceptionally warm in that area.  This year it is just a little warmer than normal, and not affecting our weather.  And seeing an AR event is very typical for a Nina.  If the blob were causing storms to go so far north, why are we doing so well in terms of precipitation?  Storms this month are a little warmer than normal because they are coming from the Central Pacific, not the North Pacific, and that is well away from the "blob"   In fact, the PDO is negative right now, not positive.  

pdoindex.png

I think some have this unrealistic expectation that a Nina winter means cold and snow from the beginning of winter until the end.  If, in a couple of months, the weather hasn't changed, then maybe there is something to what you are saying.  

Here is Pete Parsons forecast, just issued yesterday.

Unlike the past two winters, which had El Niño conditions, La Niña conditions should promote stormy periods along with an increased chance of “extreme” weather events. n Expect a transition to generally colder and wetter weather than average with ample mountain snowpacks. n Valley cold-air outbreaks and snowfall are not guaranteed, but the chances for such events are elevated. n Heightened chances for windstorms and flooding across western Oregon, especially along the coast.

Seasonal Climate Forecast: January-March 2021 (oregon.gov)

And don't forget NOAA is also predicting colder and wetter than normal for the next 3 months, and that forecast came out yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agreed. I don't see this Nina behaving as a Nino at all. The issue is exactly what you said and that is, people have this mistaken idea that La Nina guarantees constant arctic blasts and snowy patterns in the low elevations. It does not rather just increases the chances. Nina's are often backloaded though there have been a few big frontloaded ones that have given some the false impression that this is how every Nina will behave. Its simply not true.

I am still confident in my forecast that La Nina will quickly take hold mid-late January with arctic air and snow. Will it be a memorable event? Remains to be seen but if that SSW event verifies, then we could very well be in business. Time will tell. But winter is not close to being over yet.

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On 12/19/2020 at 1:12 PM, AbbyJr said:

Agreed. I don't see this Nina behaving as a Nino at all. The issue is exactly what you said and that is, people have this mistaken idea that La Nina guarantees constant arctic blasts and snowy patterns in the low elevations. It does not rather just increases the chances. Nina's are often backloaded though there have been a few big frontloaded ones that have given some the false impression that this is how every Nina will behave. Its simply not true.

I am still confident in my forecast that La Nina will quickly take hold mid-late January with arctic air and snow. Will it be a memorable event? Remains to be seen but if that SSW event verifies, then we could very well be in business. Time will tell. But winter is not close to being over yet.

Do you think seasonal lag could be a major role here like how in June it can sometimes be as dark as a winter's day? Last June 21st or somewhere's around there it was so dark that day our lights were on by 4 something o clock and if I didn't know any better I thought it was Feb in terms of light levels even though it didn't get fully dark till 8:30pm very early due to low clouds.

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On 12/25/2020 at 10:30 PM, Mr Marine Layer said:

Climate change. Normal is no longer normal. Normal is just a setting on your  dryer

 

Feels like it these days though I'm pretty sure Fukushima has a major role in it as it left a several mile long crack out in the Pacific ocean. What Japan felt was FAR FAR from the epicenter of it and it was pretty bad there! Fukushima made Japan move 8 feet west actually and the earth stopped rotating for something like a millionth of a second.  All these things can make the oceans slosh around and force things in a new regime. The  old regime was kinda stuck too until this earthquake happened. The 2009 thru 2011 climate was in it's own stuck stage.

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On 12/19/2020 at 1:12 PM, AbbyJr said:

Agreed. I don't see this Nina behaving as a Nino at all. The issue is exactly what you said and that is, people have this mistaken idea that La Nina guarantees constant arctic blasts and snowy patterns in the low elevations. It does not rather just increases the chances. Nina's are often backloaded though there have been a few big frontloaded ones that have given some the false impression that this is how every Nina will behave. Its simply not true.

I am still confident in my forecast that La Nina will quickly take hold mid-late January with arctic air and snow. Will it be a memorable event? Remains to be seen but if that SSW event verifies, then we could very well be in business. Time will tell. But winter is not close to being over yet.

Do you still feel that way? We are warmer now then even in early December though what's weird is any sign of clearing the temps suddenly plunge into well in the 20s. We almost went to 19F the few days ago cold spell but high clouds came in and stopped that. 

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