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My forecast for winter 2014-15


Phil

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Move if this in the wrong thread. Thx in advance.

 

Basic idea is, whether or not we actually see a Niño per CPC definition, the atmosphere is behaving as if we were in one (weak/unstable Walker Cell, poleward AAM propagation). We also have a maturing -QBO and a relatively active solar flux. The Sun is the wild card, as activity may be strong enough to pull the EPF equatorialward & reduce BDC efficiency.

 

With that in mind, I have these analogs in mind (all of which have problems), that may or may not apply during certain forcing intervals:

 

1958-59

1968-69

1979-80

2003-04

2006-07

2009-10

 

My forecast:

 

[Edit, Modified November Outlook]

 

November 15 - December 25th, +/- 10 days at end of interval: Ridge breaks into Alaska sometime in mid/late November, which will re-introduce polar air into the lower-48, at least for a time. However, poleward AAM propagation/E-biased MJO/tropics forcing (Beefy EPAC Hadley Cell) suggests that bouts of classic Nino (+AAM, NPAC-troughing, central US warmth) may pop up through December. Stationary waves/eddy flux will amplify, however, and begin to bombard the PV towards the Holiday Season.

 

December 25th - January 30th, +/- 15 days at end of interval: Cyclonic Wave breaking, Nino/-QBO forced BDC/Shear will likely force a heavy SSW event within 15 days of the Holiday season. This is when we'll see the true -AO regime take over, and legitimate Arctic air enter the country. This is also the best chance for the PNW to take part in an Arctic blast...during th initial stages of the regime shift. A major MJO wave will probably erupt in response to the SSW collapsing the TAM and cooling the equatorial upper troposohere/lower stratosphere. This will also mark the end of the crazy, tropically-governed NPAC/Western North American ridge regime that has dominated since January of 2013. Though ridging may persist in the West for a bit longer in the means, its "funding source" will be cut.

 

January 30th - February 28th, +/- 20 days at end of interval: Given the nature -QBO, strong BDC, & Niño-esque tropical forcing, I also favor a -AO/+PNA during this time, with a strong Aleutian low still possible. Generally cooler than normal over the Eastern US, while the rest of the nation will be dependent on the location of the NPAC low & the location of the PVA-appendage.

 

I might update this if something new flares up. Hope I do okay.

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Yeah, wrong thread. 

 

I'll say this for Phil, he's not afraid to make predictions.  He takes a lot of criticism from people who never made a prediction of their own. 

 

Phil, it would help if you had a table explaining all your acronyms.  What is BDC, TAM, and PVA? 

 

Also, hadley cells typically contract in the winter.  What does a "beefy EPAC hadley cell" mean to you in terms of latitude extent?

I also want to say that it would be helpful for WeatherPhil to indicate what all these acronyms stand for and a short description of what they represent. Some of these such as the TAM I have never heard of before.

 

I am also interested in more detail on WeatherPhil's take on what has been the main factor driving this Northeast Pacific ridge pattern since January, 2013. This ridge has become known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or RRR, due to its almost unprecedented persistence and has caused catastrophic drought conditions across California.

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Looks pretty good. I have also been looking hard at 1958 and 2003 and to a lesser extent 1979. No question the strongest indication for any cold weather in the NW is in December or early to mid Jan.

 

I still question whether the El Nino will ever get any real traction this winter. At any rate it shouldn't be enough to completely rule out some fun for us.

 

At this point just being able string 5 below normal days together would seem like a huge accomplishment for this area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil, it would help if you had a table explaining all your acronyms.  What is BDC, TAM, and PVA?

YT (Yah Think. ?)

 

Or, how about looked at otherwise (?), … Quit, pickin'  on "Phil". You know you're just to "lazy", to think about what they might mean, or look 'm "up".  TVA  ("Tennessee Valley Authority", Right. ?)

 

Point "Phil" (as in, … The, point .. is. ?), of course, that (With my chiming in here also regarding the idea. ?), you may just want to think, about taking the time to actually "write out" the whole of some of these various different "elements", "phenomenon", e.g. regions, oscillations (+/-), associations, circulations, .. if more familiar to you, which may not be, to your more average ….. puzzle-cracker, also interested in the weather. 

 

Oh. (?!) and "good luck", with your forecast.  ... Quick. How do you write the main years element of this following in Roman Numerals. ?

 

... Here's "My winter forecast for 2014-15".

 

 

Not wanting to detract from your main effort here, ..... 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/?p=34572

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Looks pretty good. I have also been looking hard at 1958 and 2003 and to a lesser extent 1979. No question the strongest indication for any cold weather in the NW is in December or early to mid Jan.

 

I still question whether the El Nino will ever get any real traction this winter. At any rate it shouldn't be enough to completely rule out some fun for us.

 

At this point just being able string 5 below normal days together would seem like a huge accomplishment for this area.

 

 

Welcome back.

 

I hope you enjoyed our spectacular, sunny summer.     It was amazing.    And the lack of marine pushes and low-level gunk made it so much more enjoyable.     I know you actually like sunshine and dry days in the warm season.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Welcome back.

 

I hope you enjoyed our spectacular, sunny summer.     It was amazing.    And the lack of marine pushes and low-level gunk made it so much more enjoyable.     I know you actually like sunshine and dry days in the warm season.     :)

Thanks.

 

I will say I took full advantage of the nice weather this summer. I'm certainly a little bit bummed at our inability to come up with any below normal temperatures in recent weeks however. It would certainly be nice if next week's trough was a bit further east.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Thanks.

 

I will say I took full advantage of the nice weather this summer. I'm certainly a little bit bummed at our inability to come up with any below normal temperatures in recent weeks however. It would certainly be nice if next week's trough was a bit further east.

 

 

I keep thinking there will be a cold spell at the end of the month in true Nino fashion.    But we could end up just warm and wet overall through the end of November.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, wrong thread.

 

I'll say this for Phil, he's not afraid to make predictions. He takes a lot of criticism from people who never made a prediction of their own.

 

Phil, it would help if you had a table explaining all your acronyms. What is BDC, TAM, and PVA?

 

Also, hadley cells typically contract in the winter. What does a "beefy EPAC hadley cell" mean to you in terms of latitude extent?

Thanks for the input.

 

BDC = Brewer Dobson Circulation

EPF = Eliassen Palm Flux

TAM = Tropical-tropopausal Angular Momentum (Branstrator Wave)

PVA = Polar Vortex (Anomaly)

 

"Beefy", as in larger in size, relative to average

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All of these years featured at least one snow/cold event. So there's that.

Yeah, highly doubt you'll have to worry about a shut-out. Should be one or two windows of exciting winter wx. Questions all involve timing.

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Looks pretty good. I have also been looking hard at 1958 and 2003 and to a lesser extent 1979. No question the strongest indication for any cold weather in the NW is in December or early to mid Jan.

 

I still question whether the El Nino will ever get any real traction this winter. At any rate it shouldn't be enough to completely rule out some fun for us.

 

At this point just being able string 5 below normal days together would seem like a huge accomplishment for this area.

Welcome back. Yeah I'm not too concerned with small fluctuations in Niño 3.4 SSTs. I'm focused on the forcings driving them.

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Welcome back. Yeah I'm not too concerned with small fluctuations in Niño 3.4 SSTs. I'm focused on the forcings driving them.

Doesn't it seem as if the MJO has been kind of avoiding Nino friendly regions and focusing more in octants 1 or 2 when a wave does manage to get going? I also notice there have been no significant WWBs for quite some time now. The last MEI update suggested the atmosphere is only marginally Ninoish. Sometimes barely Ninoish conditions treat us fairly well as far as winter weather is concerned.

 

There is certainly no question the atmosphere is seriously F'd up right now. I've never seen anything close to the kind of continuous warmth that has dominated here since June at least. We're still looking for our first low below 40 here and there are none in sight. Extremely rare to say the least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Doesn't it seem as if the MJO has been kind of avoiding Nino friendly regions and focusing more in octants 1 or 2 when a wave does manage to get going? I also notice there have been no significant WWBs for quite some time now. The last MEI update suggested the atmosphere is only marginally Ninoish. Sometimes barely Ninoish conditions treat us fairly well as far as winter weather is concerned.

 

There is certainly no question the atmosphere is seriously F'd up right now. I've never seen anything close to the kind of continuous warmth that has dominated here since June at least. We're still looking for our first low below 40 here and there are none in sight. Extremely rare to say the least.

I think the main problem is we have been stuck in the same pattern for an eternity now. It has been very warm to hot almost continuously since the 4th of July weekend here in Socal with the exception of an occasional 2-3 day cooler period, until it finally cooled down this past week. It appears that we are at last coming out of this pattern now.

 

BTW, welcome back to the forum!

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Doesn't it seem as if the MJO has been kind of avoiding Nino friendly regions and focusing more in octants 1 or 2 when a wave does manage to get going? I also notice there have been no significant WWBs for quite some time now. The last MEI update suggested the atmosphere is only marginally Ninoish. Sometimes barely Ninoish conditions treat us fairly well as far as winter weather is concerned.

 

There is certainly no question the atmosphere is seriously F'd up right now. I've never seen anything close to the kind of continuous warmth that has dominated here since June at least. We're still looking for our first low below 40 here and there are none in sight. Extremely rare to say the least.

Well there was a WWB last week...Walker Cell is currently very weak/east based as well...MJO phase diagrams can be misleading as they also pick up on CCKW activity. Overall, we're in a Niño regime and will probably be for awhile.

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Yeah, highly doubt you'll have to worry about a shut-out. Should be one or two windows of exciting winter wx. Questions all involve timing.

 

"Howdy", "partner". … Name's "Phil", truncation's my game. .. Used to live out W. But only talk that way now

 

"Beefy", as in … relative to average

 

-http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/?p=34572

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Well there was a WWB last week...Walker Cell is currently very weak/east based as well...MJO phase diagrams can be misleading as they also pick up on CCKW activity. Overall, we're in a Niño regime and will probably be for awhile.

I suppose that was technically a WWB, but I have seen ones like that during a La Nina before. Very short lived and only of modest intensity.

 

I am curious what your thoughts are on whether the atmosphere was Ninoish in the winter of 1968-69. If so, what made that winter so magical for us?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I suppose that was technically a WWB, but I have seen ones like that during a La Nina before. Very short lived and only of modest intensity.

 

I am curious what your thoughts are on whether the atmosphere was Ninoish in the winter of 1968-69. If so, what made that winter so magical for us?

The 1968-69 analog is unique (there are a few peer reviewed papers on the stratospheric anomalies in that year, actually). Autumn of 1968 witnessed a huge drop off in solar, forcing an early Canadian Warming (Western-Hemispheric Wave Breaker during developmental stages of the PV). Quite a rare phenomenon (especially nowadays).

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"Howdy", "partner". … Name's "Phil", truncation's my game. .. Used to live out W. But only talk that way now

 

"Beefy", as in … relative to average

 

-http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/?p=34572

Zzzzzzz

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.. Is a bit annoying 
 
So will you be posting beginning, interim and end states representations of the different main elements that you've pointed to, for comparison with what you've forecasted. ?
 

.. October 15 - November 15, +/- 7 days at end of interval:  Classic Niño look, GOA troughing/+EPO/+NAO...warm over the central US, closer to average at the coasts...may resemble November 2009. Stormy over the western US, drought relief possible in Cali[fornia.]


Perhaps pointing to some of your reasoning attached to these ideas otherwise. ?

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The 1968-69 analog is unique (there are a few peer reviewed papers on the stratospheric anomalies in that year, actually). Autumn of 1968 witnessed a huge drop off in solar, forcing an early Canadian Warming (Western-Hemispheric Wave Breaker during developmental stages of the PV). Quite a rare phenomenon (especially nowadays).

No doubt that was a rare one. The NAO was extremely low that winter also. Another thing that makes the extreme cold in the NW that winter very noteworthy.

 

I would sure like to see the huge drop off in solar activity. There is a chance that could happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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.. Is a bit annoying 

 

So will you be posting beginning, interim and end states representations of the different main elements that you've pointed to, for comparison with what you've forecasted. ?

 

Perhaps pointing to some of your reasoning attached to these ideas otherwise. ?

 

Phil takes the time to do the research and post his ideas about the upcoming winter, yet you complain that it's not written to your liking.  What motivation does he have to answer any of your questions when all he ever gets from you is badgering?

 

Nice write-up Phil.  I was wondering if you have any early ideas about ENSO for the '15-'16 winter (just wondering since you called this current weak nino state some 12-18 months ago).

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.. Is a bit annoying

 

So will you be posting beginning, interim and end states representations of the different main elements that you've pointed to, for comparison with what you've forecasted. ?

 

 

Perhaps pointing to some of your reasoning attached to these ideas otherwise. ?

I thought I did that. Any deeper and it'd be analogous to asking why the electric force exists...how am I supposed to know that?

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Phil takes the time to do the research and post his ideas about the upcoming winter, yet you complain that it's not written to your liking. What motivation does he have to answer any of your questions when all he ever gets from you is badgering?

I'm apathetic at this point, lol. Might as well be shooting a corpse..I'm done

 

Nice write-up Phil. I was wondering if you have any early ideas about ENSO for the '15-'16 winter (just wondering since you called this current weak nino state some 12-18 months ago).

We're probably going to slip back into La Niña for 2016. However, the method I'm using is beginning to get noisy as the developing climate shift is already making itself known in the global circulations...it might be a weirdly timed ENSO progression. I'll know more by February/March.

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No doubt that was a rare one. The NAO was extremely low that winter also. Another thing that makes the extreme cold in the NW that winter very noteworthy.

 

I would sure like to see the huge drop off in solar activity. There is a chance that could happen.

Looks like solar may be dropping off a bit now. If it decides to plunge, look out! :)

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Phil takes the time to do the research and post his ideas about the upcoming winter, yet you complain that it's not written to your liking.  What motivation does he have to answer any of your questions when all he ever gets from you is badgering[.....]  ?

First of all, I'm not submitting to your impression / characterization here above, that I'm "badgering" "Phil".

 

Then with regard to your thinking and "question" here above, somewhat more specific, ..

 

$ .. Working from the standpoint more general that all questions, even those more rhetorical posed within an online forum dedicated to discussion warrants a response, …

 

More specifically here, and with my comments posted above having in fact followed two other members' similar having pointed to what they had also apparently felt had worked to obscure what "Phil" has submitted above the main focus of this thread, my own view more general is that, first, while acronymslooked at more specificallydo certainly often work to simplify the idea of conveying the denotation of an element / different elements of what might be being said more broadly, .. also certainly, where the potential for familiarity with whatever acronyms is at all questionable given who might perhaps be following a particular discussion, and where more reasonable, acronyms should be used more sparsely. (Sparingly.)

 

With this idea, and if in my view more only, yes .. I have in point of fact found the idea of ["Phil's"] ... beginning a statement, proposed as a fact, even assertion, particularly "annoying". And have said so.

 

 

I thought I did that. Any deeper and it'd be analogous to asking why the electric force exists...how am I supposed to know that?

 

Let's try this again maybe. Shall we. ?

 

Here's my question, expanded slightly (spelled out in a bit more detail). 

 

I'd asked (have asked.) if ... Relative to the more general forecasts (generally descriptive scenarios) that you've submitted (projected as likely to come about), you are planning to show beginning, interim and end state representations of (Showing.) the different main elements of what you've pointed to, for .. (This idea toward that, of making possible) comparison (a comparative analysis / general review of change where considering each, and with this review, a weighing of the general merit of.), what you've forecasted. This, in and where looking at each of the different main general timeframes that you've pointed to. 

 

This with my having attached to this question, additionally, one more in line more with the idea of whether or not you might be planning to point to / perhaps be going to attach, anything more, to these different forecasts (certainly fairly general in each case with respect to their detail.) where considering your reasoning (thinking) as to, more why each of the main ideas that you've pointed to might come about, where and when you've suggested they might, more generally.

 

To which, you've responded, with what I've isolated quoted more initially here above. This, with you're apparently having, for some reason, appreciated what I've asked as having been something quite a bit more.

 

And with this, your response, apparently leastwise, only having taken into account the more secondary element of what I'd asked.  @

 

.. October 15 - November 15, +/- 7 days at end of interval:  Classic Niño look, GOA troughing/+EPO/+NAO...warm over the central US, closer to average at the coasts...may resemble November 2009. Stormy over the western US, drought relief possible in Cali[fornia.]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/?p=34572

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The ENSO situation remains at a standstill. Do you see any legitimate warming in the eastern Pacific equatorial regions anytime soon? Even with a recent WWB, we're currently looking at a piddly +0.3 anomaly in the 3.4 region.

Yes, I suspect ENSO will warm at least into solid weak territory, though I suspect the event will be basin-wide in the means. The problem has been an elongated Walker Cell, enhanced by residual westerlies at/below 50mb from previous QBO and broad Hadley Cells (solar max phenomenon).

 

This regime is now collapsing, abruptly.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/s9G0ba/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/gyhAEb/800.jpg

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Let's try this again maybe. Shall we. ?

 

Here's my question, expanded slightly (spelled out in a bit more detail).

 

I'd asked (have asked.) if ... Relative to the more general forecasts (generally descriptive scenarios) that you've submitted (projected as likely to come about), you are planning to show beginning, interim and end state representations of (showing and where considering) the different main elements of what you've pointed to, for .. (This idea toward that, of making possible) comparison (a comparative analysis / general review of change where considering each, and with this review, a weighing of the general merit of.), what you've forecasted. In and where looking at each of the different main general timeframes that you've pointed to.

 

This, with my having attached to this question, additionally, one more in line more, with the idea of whether or not you might perhaps, be planning to point to / be going to attach, anything more, to these different forecasts (certainly fairly general in each case with respect to their detail.) where considering your reasoning (thinking) as to, more why each of the main ideas that you've pointed to might come about, where and when you've suggested they might, more generally.

 

To which, you've responded, with what I've isolated quoted more initially here above. This, with you're apparently having, for some reason, appreciated what I've asked as having been something quite a bit more.

 

And with this, your response, apparently leastwise, only having taken into account the more secondary element of what I'd asked. @

 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/?p=34572

I'll do my best. As things move along, I'll add posts to this thread highlighting what went right, what went wrong, and where I think we'll go.

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.. There ya go. 
 
I'm not inferring a highly detailed study. But just something to facilitate the idea of following what you've forecasted. And with this, I had been asking in earnest, where having brought up the idea of your reasoning / thinking a bit more expanded.
 
 
Oh. .. And if more btwmore incidentally here. Regarding the request by Chris above, for a "Table" of acronymsones that you find yourself comfortable using but may not be more familiar to some people, … In addition to the one more brief that you've generated posted above, perhaps this might be a good place, and thread in which, to expand that table. And even perhaps add to it in the future where considering the idea.
 
This, by and with starting with each and all, of those that you've used so far above more, along together with even perhaps, those that you might additionally herein further on. .. Even elsewhere. This with the idea of your being able to "refer" to it where the idea might come up elsewhere.

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.. There ya go. 

 

I'm not inferring a highly detailed study. But just something to facilitate the idea of following what you've forecasted. And with this, I had been asking in earnest, where having brought up the idea of your reasoning / thinking a bit more expanded.

 

 

Oh. .. And if more btwmore incidentally here. Regarding the request by Chris above, for a "Table" of acronymsones that you find yourself comfortable using but may not be more familiar to some people, … In addition to the one more brief that you've generated posted above, perhaps this might be a good place, and thread in which, to expand that table. And even perhaps add to it in the future where considering the idea.

 

This, by and with starting with each and all, of those that you've used so far above more, along together with even perhaps, those that you might additionally herein further on. .. Even elsewhere. This with the idea of your being able to "refer" to it where the idea might come up elsewhere.

A table of acronyms, what they stand for, and a short description of each would be very helpful for everyone. This subforum would be a good place, since a great deal of the material deals with the longer range anyway.

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Phil, just want to ask what you see as the big watch periods for my neck of the woods. Any thoughts?

Tricky one. Looking at two windows.

 

A ridge will probably break into AK sometime in mid or late November w/ a +NAO at that time, so could be a window for a SE ridge/western trough.

 

A shot of Arctic air is also possible after the SSW (SSW should occur between December 25 - January 15th), so a truckload of cold will probably come roaring in during January with a dominating -AO, so I'd watch the late December/early January window as well.

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Update on November, can now narrow down the regime shift to November 9-13. Should see an Aleutian low/western ridge get going then, with troughing resuming in the central USA.

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Update on November, can now narrow down the regime shift to November 9-13. Should see an Aleutian low/western ridge get going then, with troughing resuming in the central USA.

A western ridge is a regime shift? We've been under some sort of ridge since March.

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A western ridge is a regime shift? We've been under some sort of ridge since March.

Kind of. The GOA trough should eventually relocate west (mid November as the tropical WPAC a subsidence erodes (MJO/CCKW passing) so the PNW ridge will also slide west into a more offshore-axis...so the PNW would enter a drier regime with colder air to the east of the cascades.

 

Looks like a central US trough w/ ridging in the west & SE.

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Kind of. The GOA trough should eventually relocate west (mid November as the tropical WPAC a subsidence erodes (MJO/CCKW passing) so the PNW ridge will also slide west into a more offshore-axis...so the PNW would enter a drier regime with colder air to the east of the cascades.

 

Looks like a central US trough w/ ridging in the west & SE.

 

That sounds nice.

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Kind of. The GOA trough should eventually relocate west (mid November as the tropical WPAC a subsidence erodes (MJO/CCKW passing) so the PNW ridge will also slide west into a more offshore-axis...so the PNW would enter a drier regime with colder air to the east of the cascades.

 

Looks like a central US trough w/ ridging in the west & SE.

Just what we need in California is more dry weather. NOT!

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A true, super -AO in January looking like a good possibility..December looks like a typical Niño w/ warmth centered in the Northern Plains/Midwest

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