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My forecast for winter 2014-15


Phil

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Thanks Phil for the detailed reply regarding what you see going forward. Keep us posted!

Ensembles are now seeing the "tightening" of the +PNA, as I alluded to in my last post. Typical Branstrator Wave..the NAO is really fighting hard, but eventually I think it will cave..

 

GEFS:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/yzJGaM/800.jpg

 

GGEM:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/fhaJBu/800.jpg

 

NAEFS:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/8t0AJh/800.jpg

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Major SSW now looks likely between December 25th and January 5th..

 

Going to be fun watching all that cold air slide east of the Rockies!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going to be fun watching all that cold air slide east of the Rockies!

Whether or not that occurs will depend on when exactly the SSW occurs, and whether it's an initial wave-1 displacement event (delayed) or we see a wave-2 split early-on..my guess is we start out with wave-1 then transition into a wave-2 regime..

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Take a deep breath big guy.

 

Don't you have some twins to raise?

They will be here no later than January 2nd the doctor says!

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well, the AO/NAO should plunge by early January following SSW..PNA retrograde afterwards? Could be a fun month!

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Update:

 

After the ice-box during the first 2-3 weeks of January, a Niño-ish NPAC pattern should return (Aleutian Low/+PNA) later in January. That said, I see more of a -AO and/or -NAO this go around..so should be somewhat colder in the Eastern US..though a lot will depend on how the SSW/PV breakdown goes..at least in my opinion.

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This might be the best winter forecast I've ever made..I can't find any real errors so far..hopefully I'm not jinxing it [knocks on wood]

 

My forecast:

 

 

November 15 - December 25th, +/- 10 days at end of interval: Ridge breaks into Alaska sometime in mid/late November, which will re-introduce polar air into the lower-48, at least for a time. However, poleward AAM propagation/E-biased MJO/tropical forcing (Beefy EPAC Hadley Cell) suggests that bouts of classic Nino (+AAM, NPAC-troughing, central US warmth) may pop up through December. Stationary waves/eddy flux will amplify, however, and begin to bombard the PV towards the Holiday Season.

 

December 25th - January 30th, +/- 15 days at end of interval: Cyclonic Wave breaking, Nino/-QBO forced BDC/Shear will likely force a heavy SSW event within 15 days of the Holiday season. This is when we'll see the true -AO regime take over, and legitimate Arctic air enter the country. This is also the best chance for the PNW to take part in an Arctic blast...during the initial stages of the regime shift. A major MJO wave will probably erupt in response to the SSW collapsing the TAM and cooling the equatorial upper troposohere/lower stratosphere. This will also mark the end of the crazy, tropically-governed NPAC/Western North American ridge regime that has dominated since January of 2013. Though ridging may persist in the West for a bit longer in the means, its "funding source" will be cut.

 

January 30th - February 28th, +/- 20 days at end of interval: Given the nature -QBO, strong BDC, & Niño-esque tropical forcing, I also favor a -AO/+PNA during this time, with a strong Aleutian low still possible. Generally cooler than normal over the Eastern US, while the rest of the nation will be dependent on the location of the NPAC low & the location of the PVA-appendage.

 

I might update this if something new flares up. Hope I do okay.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well, the AO/NAO should plunge by early January following SSW..PNA retrograde afterwards? Could be a fun month!

 

Any sign of the SSW yet? Not looking like AO/NAO is going to plunge any time soon...AO looks to hover on both sides of neutral for the next 7-10 days at least, NAO is weakly negative now, but is forecast to go quite positive soon. But I know those things can change quickly following a SSW.

 

So far the EPO is running the show...does this affect the rest of your forecast, or do you think it's just a timing thing?

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Any sign of the SSW yet? Not looking like AO/NAO is going to plunge any time soon...AO looks to hover on both sides of neutral for the next 7-10 days at least, NAO is weakly negative now, but is forecast to go quite positive soon. But I know those things can change quickly following a SSW.

 

So far the EPO is running the show...does this affect the rest of your forecast, or do you think it's just a timing thing?

Not much to change.

 

They'll still go negative in Jan I think, PV is just taking a slightly longer to prime for SSW. Doesn't affect the forecast much because the forcings behind the current/upcoming stratwarm are driving the cold into the US as predicted..the blocking is just oriented differently (more like 1978-79, less like 1968-69?).

 

So, no worries.

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Ok, so to clarify: from what you said previously, my understanding was that the stratosphere would lead the way into the blocking pattern in January with a SSW. But what you actually meant was tropical forcing would lead the way, causing a wave response, leading to blocking which would eventually lead to a SSW and complete destruction of the PV?

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Ok, so to clarify: from what you said previously, my understanding was that the stratosphere would lead the way into the blocking pattern in January with a SSW. But what you actually meant was tropical forcing would lead the way, causing a wave response, leading to blocking which would eventually lead to a SSW and complete destruction of the PV?

Yes, essentially.

 

I said the catalysts behind the strat-response (e-hem tropical forcing retrograde under -QBO waveguide) would force a duel breaker regimen (-EPO), followed by a strong NAM drop as a result of the strat feedback, while the tropical forcings favored a PNA retrograde.

 

Stratwarm events are forced via wave-breaking..the manner of which is determined by the tropics and the antecedent flow aloft (QBO). The amplification into a SSW is a feedback response resulting from wave-deflection in a baroclinic PV.

 

This will lead to a -NAM:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/erZuN8/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/esvXdr/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ajYpTk/640.jpg

 

I did not forecast a drop in the NAM to precede the NPAC/NATL breakers..that's impossible. I did not say the wave-2 strat response would force the PNA retrograde..

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Yes, essentially.

 

I said the catalysts behind the strat-response (e-hem tropical forcing retrograde under -QBO waveguide) would force a duel breaker regimen (-EPO), followed by a strong NAM drop as a result of the strat feedback, while the tropical forcings favored a PNA retrograde.

 

Stratwarm events are forced via wave-breaking..the manner of which is determined by the tropics and the antecedent flow aloft (QBO). The amplification into a SSW is a feedback response resulting from wave-deflection in a baroclinic PV.

 

This will lead to a -NAM:

 

I did not forecast a drop in the NAM to precede the NPAC/NATL breakers..that's impossible. I did not say the wave-2 strat response would force the PNA retrograde..

 

That all makes sense, but there were several times you emphasized the AO/NAO going negative and making the East cold first, and then the West later as the PNA went negative. I don't recall you mentioning the EPO as a catalyst, which it really seems to be here. Everything else is kind of following the EPO, assuming the PV does eventually break down, and the AO/NAO then go negative.

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December 25th - January 30th, +/- 15 days at end of interval: Cyclonic Wave breaking, Nino/-QBO forced BDC/Shear will likely force a heavy SSW event within 15 days of the Holiday season. This is when we'll see the true -AO regime take over, and legitimate Arctic air enter the country. This is also the best chance for the PNW to take part in an Arctic blast...during th initial stages of the regime shift. A major MJO wave will probably erupt in response to the SSW collapsing the TAM and cooling the equatorial upper troposohere/lower stratosphere. This will also mark the end of the crazy, tropically-governed NPAC/Western North American ridge regime that has dominated since January of 2013. Though ridging may persist in the West for a bit longer in the means, its "funding source" will be cut.

 

This section here clearly seems to indicate that the SSW is the initial forcer, the -AO regime is the result, and then the PNW gets its chance. That's not what's occurring.

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That all makes sense, but there were several times you emphasized the AO/NAO going negative and making the East cold first, and then the West later as the PNA went negative. I don't recall you mentioning the EPO as a catalyst, which it really seems to be here. Everything else is kind of following the EPO, assuming the PV does eventually break down, and the AO/NAO then go negative.

Minor misunderstanding, perhaps.

 

1) NAM = AO/NAO domains combined, onto a more representative scale. The NAM will drop into negative territory in early/mid January, as expected.

 

2) Wave breaking is a catalyst for a -NAM..a significant wave breaking episode over the NPAC is occurring now (-EPO). This must occur to force a -NAM. There was/is also a notable wave breaking episode over the NATL that is trying to flip the NAO, as well.

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This section here clearly seems to indicate that the SSW is the initial forcer, the -AO regime is the result, and then the PNW gets its chance. That's not what's occurring.

You're misinterpreting that, big time. The strat response occurs for a reason..in this case, the e-hem tropical forcing under a very distinct -QBO waveguide is the culprit. Also, I never said the SSW/-AO would be the catalysts for a PNW blast..not sure where you got that idea from..

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You're misinterpreting that, big time. The strat response occurs for a reason..in this case, the e-hem tropical forcing under a very distinct -QBO waveguide is the culprit. Also, I never said the SSW/-AO would be the catalysts for a PNW blast..not sure where you got that idea from..

 

Well, I'm just going by the way you ordered things: first the -QBO forced SSW event, then the -AO and Arctic air entering the country, with the PNW likely being a part of that. With a MJO wave in response to the SSW. 

 

In other comments this past month, you clearly mentioned the Midwest/East would likely get hit first from the -AO, which would make sense.

 

The MJO wave has already occurred, the Arctic air into the country is about to occur, and yet the SSW and -AO regime are not the culprits.

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Well, I'm just going by the way you ordered things: first the -QBO forced SSW event, then the -AO and Arctic air entering the country, with the PNW likely being a part of that. With a MJO wave in response to the SSW.

I didn't order it like that, so there's no need for that interpretation. I highlighted the most significant developments I thought would occur, in relative relation..

 

In other comments this past month, you clearly mentioned the Midwest/East would likely get hit first from the -AO, which would make sense.

Midwest/Eastern troughing did occur first, following the Christmas Eve cyclogenesis/wave breaking event..had nothing to do with the AO.

 

The MJO wave has already occurred, the Arctic air into the country is about to occur, and yet the SSW and -AO regime are not the culprits.

 

:huh:

 

The MJO wave has not occurred yet..it is occurring now, as forecasted, in response to the shift in poleward mass/eddy flux that is bombarding the PV as we speak..

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/Xx2UZh/640.jpg

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I didn't order it like that, so there's no need for that interpretation. I highlighted the most significant developments I thought would occur, in relative relation..

 

 

Midwest/Eastern troughing did occur first, following the Christmas Eve cyclogenesis/wave breaking event..had nothing to do with the AO.

 

 

 

:huh:

 

The MJO wave has not occurred yet..it is occurring now, as forecasted, in response to the shift in poleward mass/eddy flux that is bombarding the PV as we speak..

 

 

1. Yes, that's exactly how you had it ordered in the paragraph. That's not up for debate. Now if you're saying you didn't mean for that to be the chronological order of how things will occur, ok...but I think you can see how it would be interpreted that way. Again, I'm not the only one who apparently misinterpreted you.

 

2. That was a pretty weak "troughing" event for the Midwest/East, but I'm referring to Arctic air. In comments over the past month or so, it sounded like you thought the Arctic air would hit the Midwest/East first, in response to the -AO. I guess I misunderstood that too...but what baffles me is if you were counting on the EPO to be a major catalyst for the pattern here, why didn't you even reference it? You kept referencing the AO/NAO a lot.

 

3. Ok. I was under the impression the wave had already been under way. Does that mean the SSW has already occurred or is currently occurring?

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Yes, I do see this playing out...we should transition into a "classic" El Niño pattern during the first 2-3 weeks of December, with a GOA trough, +NAO, & warmth centered over the Northern Plains/Midwest. During the middle/later portion of December, I suspect we will move into a +PNA/-EPO pattern once again, with a SSW following soon after..

 

Ah, ok here I found where you did reference the -EPO preceding the SSW and -AO. Nice.

 

What's still a little confusing is the -EPO is already leading to a major dump of Arctic air into the CONUS, rather than us having to wait for a -AO...but I assume you're thinking an even bigger dump will come once the -AO does set in?

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1. Yes, that's exactly how you had it ordered in the paragraph. That's not up for debate. Now if you're saying you didn't mean for that to be the chronological order of how things will occur, ok...but I think you can see how it would be interpreted that way. Again, I'm not the only one who apparently misinterpreted you.

:rolleyes:

 

If you'd pay attention, you'd know that's exactly what I implied, regarding whether or not the order in which I wrote it represented a chronological elaboration of the forecasted progression. The manner in which you interpret this stuff really perplexes me, sometimes.

 

2. That was a pretty weak "troughing" event for the Midwest/East, but I'm referring to Arctic air. In comments over the past month or so, it sounded like you thought the Arctic air would hit the Midwest/East first, in response to the -AO. I guess I misunderstood that too...but what baffles me is if you were counting on the EPO to be a major catalyst for the pattern here, why didn't you even reference it? You kept referencing the AO/NAO a lot.

I did mention it..do you want me to link you to those posts? I mentioned the NAM (AO/NAO) more often because it's the dominant low frequency representation of mass transfer, and will eventually take control.

 

3. Ok. I was under the impression the wave had already been under way. Does that mean the SSW has already occurred or is currently occurring?

The stratwarm event is occurring now, yes, but it has not amplified into a SSW yet. We're now seeing a wave-1 response take shape, which should transition into a wave-2 response around/after New Years.

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Thanks [knocks on wood]. No big changes in the general idea, but here's how it should go down:

 

1) First, the huge, sprawling GOA low will tighten/organize into a more classic +PNA by December 15-20th..so you'll see more legitimate western ridging by then, with weak/moderate troughing in the East/Southeast..

 

2) Wave-breaking will then be favored over the NAO domain, which will scour out the deep, full-column vorticity dominating there. Currently targeting a flip to a -NAO in late December, likely during the last week of the month. The same wave-dynamics responsible for the NAO flip will also begin to pound the PV, leading to a major SSW towards the end of December or early January.

 

3) Major SSW should propagate effectively through the wave-field under a favorable Eliassen Palm flux, aided by a favorable QBO and tropical forcing..this should tank the NAM (AO/NAO), dropping the USA into a deep freeze in January. Interesting thing is the favored MQI/MJO at the time will try to force a -PNA/-EPO while the stratosphere/low-freq inertial forcing will insist on a strong -AO/-NAO..so, there are strong suggestions that we'll finally experience the elusive -PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO for January..

 

The first part was excellent. Well done. Not much troughing even in the East, but got the general pattern for December very close.

 

The second part has not verified so well, as we are seeing the NAO actually go quite positive. It sounds like the wave-breaking you thought would cause the NAO to tank is actually promoting the monster -EPO we're seeing develop. So in the respect of targeting major blocking to begin, well done.

 

Since the EPO is leading the way instead of the NAO, does that effect your thoughts for the pattern evolution in January at all? Still expect to see that elusive -PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO combo? At what point do you think the NAO will finally flip?

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The stratwarm event is occurring now, yes, but it has not amplified into a SSW yet. We're now seeing a wave-1 response take shape, which should transition into a wave-2 response around/after New Years.

 

Ok, I guess I'm just not seeing the causal effect from the not yet occurred SSW and the MJO wave which looks like it is happening regardless.

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Ok, I guess I'm just not seeing the causal effect from the not yet occurred SSW and the MJO wave which looks like it is happening regardless.

The MJO & stratwarm are tied to the same underlying mass-transfer processes here..whether or not it amplifies into a full fledged SSW doesn't matter in the short term..the effects are the same..

 

See the developments below:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/EwgNvQ/640.jpg

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The first part was excellent. Well done.

 

The second part has not verified so well, as we are seeing the NAO actually go quite positive. It sounds like the wave-breaking you thought would cause the NAO to tank is actually promoting the monster -EPO we're seeing develop. So in the respect of targeting major blocking to begin, well done.

 

Since the EPO is leading the way instead of the NAO, does that effect your thoughts for the pattern evolution in January at all? Still expect to see that elusive -PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO combo? At what point do you think the NAO will finally flip?

The NAO has largely followed the progression I outlined, however, it has been more stubborn than I thought in the lower frequency timescale(s). It might take until late January for it to flip for good.

 

Also, when I say "AO/NAO", I'm actually referring to the NAM (northern annular mode). Many people don't know what the "NAM" acronym stands for.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/gmNxzK/800.jpg

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The NAO has largely followed the progression I outlined, however, it has been more stubborn than I thought in the lower frequency timescale(s). It might take until late January for it to flip for good.

 

Also, when I say "AO/NAO", I'm actually referring to the NAM (northern annular mode). Many people don't know what the "NAM" acronym stands for.

 

 

So if I understand correctly, your latest thoughts are that we'll see a +NAO/-PNA/-EPO and eventually -AO through the first half of January, and then the second half will be more -NAO/+PNA/-AO?

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So if I understand correctly, your latest thoughts are that we'll see a +NAO/-PNA/-EPO and eventually -AO through the first half of January, and then the second half will be more -NAO/+PNA/-AO?

Definitely more of a +PNA starting in mid/late January. The NAM will flip negative following the wave-2 strat response, however, whether or not we see a temporary spike afterwards will depend on whether or not the current stratwarm amplifies into a full blown SSW.

 

If it fails to do so, the next round should occur in late January and finish the job.

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Definitely more of a +PNA starting in mid/late January. The NAM will flip negative following the wave-2 strat response, however, whether or not we see a temporary spike afterwards will depend on whether or not the current stratwarm amplifies into a full blown SSW.

 

If it fails to do so, the next round should occur in late January and finish the job.

 

Cool. So in essence, even though it doesn't look like we'll see the big NAM flip as soon as you were thinking, the troposphere is still responding to the wave forcing with the -EPO block, enabling us to see Arctic air regardless.

 

I think because you had put so much emphasis on the NAM going negative and that leading to major Arctic air, the EPO as a major impetus for that was kind of overlooked. Understandable, since you East Coasters tend to obsess over the AO/NAO so much ;)

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  • 3 weeks later...

Definitely more of a +PNA starting in mid/late January. The NAM will flip negative following the wave-2 strat response, however, whether or not we see a temporary spike afterwards will depend on whether or not the current stratwarm amplifies into a full blown SSW.

 

If it fails to do so, the next round should occur in late January and finish the job.

 

Let's see if this round can do it..

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