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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


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2020  is about done. Thank goodness!!  Rumors of storms on the horizon, been hearing that for sometime. Let's discuss Jan 2021--

not my views, but those of PP at Accu-WX-

Here is PP after talking about the rumors of an E.Coast storm on the 25th and various other rumors--- (I'am just the messenger!!! )

"We need to focus on the polar vortex between all these storms. Our forecast is for a milder East January and February. However, a polar vortex slide could lead to either intense cold or intense warmups depending on location. This is a risk and we feel the worst of the cold from any polar vortex heading into January would be in western North America and possibly Europe, but that is really hard to say at this stage. In any case, the coldest air, if it were to reach the East, would wait until mid-, perhaps even late, January dealing with the lag effect of the whole process. This would split the month in two and possibly the same for February.

Here is the forecast by the NCEP American model showing a big rise in temperatures in green at 10 mb in the stratosphere, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. This can lead to a displacement or split in the polar vortex and potential surge in Arctic cold."590x393_12210127_ncepgfsstratfcst.jpg

The next three graphics showing the pinching occurring of the polar vortex in bluish, dark colors and the warming in orange and red. The first surge occurs on Dec. 31, but a double pinch may occur around Jan. 4.590x442_12210128_gfs10mb24th.jpg590x442_12210129_gfs31st10bm.jpg590x442_12210127_gfs4th10mb.jpg                                                                                                                                    Here is our play on January using the top analogs in our package. The upper-level heights map is the first graphic showing the upper trough over the Rockies and a strong upper high between Hawaii and Alaska

590x490_12210125_screen-shot-2020-12-20-at-8.22.12-pm.png

 

.Here are the temperatures and precipitation. We continue to stay firm on a big change in January and February compared to December. The influence of the upper high over the north-central Pacific and the polar vortex position will be the main influences of these results.590x501_12210125_screen-shot-2020-12-20-at-8.22.31-pm.png590x478_12210126_screen-shot-2020-12-20-at-8.22.01-pm.png

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Just started the change over here. Bitter sweet as we sit and wait to put our pup down. 

Let's keep the AGW and Political talk separate from this board as there are several members on here (including myself) that would rather discuss weather related business in here.  You can choose to co

A few daylight pics of the Twin peaks on the side of driveway. My "snowblower" son!!

Posted Images

It is starting to become very clear that a MMW SSW event is going to take place as we open up January.  Will it be a Polar Vortex Split or Displacement is the question???  If your a winter wx enthusiast, this month will feature things that I have not seen in years.  It would be truly amazing to witness some of the things that are being forecasted by the models.

In any event, the opening week of January is showcasing the long awaited return of the "Greenland Block" and it is likely to Rock!  Last night's 00z EPS 5-day mean illustrating an eye opener way to open up the 1st week of 2021...

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If the CFSv2 is right, is a Jan '14 redux in the works???  There are some impressive indications that the "Nanook From the North" may indeed Freeze the nation next month for millions east of the Rockies.  No joke, but I'm convinced that the climate models have ZERO clue of what to do with the high lat blocking this season.  It almost feels like if they forecast blocking in the Long Range, it disappears in the short range.  This year, the climate models forecasted no blocking and now there is immense blocking!  I guess its better to see them flash a non-winter scenario than a good one.  Needless to say, next month at face value looks deliver some interesting wx phenomenon's.

 

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Lots and lots of clippers. 💰

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 minute ago, whatitdo said:

if there's no ssw i feel we may be in trouble 

Tbh, there is some hope for an arctic intrusion by end of Jan into Feb and it could get quite brutal. Lets hope. Also, its the coldest time of Winter.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Well, well, well...what do we have here???  Last night's Euro Weeklies are now advertising a reversal in the zonal winds up at 10mb causing a major SSW event!  This is something that the GEFS have been advertising and we are now seeing some consistency among the various models.  

Image

 

 

The JMA weeklies also are on board...

 

Confidence is growing that the Polar Vortex will play a big role going forward.  Not to mention, but couple that with high lat blocking and we could get things to really fire up in the snow dept.  Speaking of which, yesterday's Euro Weeklies continue to trend towards a much more favorable 500mb pattern this month.  Coast-to-Coast storms and rumors of storms???  Yes, please...dial it up....

 

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Could we FINALLY have a month during met Winter where all things are literally lining up NOW instead of late winter or Spring???  I whole hardheartedly believe so and I'm thrilled to see a majority of the climate models showing this possibility.  You can't deny the immense blocking that is going to develop right when we close out 2020 and head into 2021.  Instead of waiting another few more weeks for the Strat and Polar Vortex to play ball, thankfully, it appears its going to happen earlier and deliver the "goods" we haven't seen in a number of years.  The last time a major SSW event happened was back in Jan '19 that delivered the infamous Polar Vortex intrusion, the year prior, in Feb '18...here's a list below...it's noteworthy that those two years winter hung on well into Spring.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

 

Finally, the 10mb strat animation below is seemingly locking into a pattern...this is a very strong signal to me that January will be a busy month....

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

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I want to share with you some storm dates on my calendar for this month.  First off, I'm looking for a smaller system to ride up a boundary from TX up into the OHV between Jan 2nd-4th.  Then we will likely be tracking a larger system between Jan 6th-9th that could be more of a southern/eastern Sub storm threat.  By the middle of the month, between Jan 13th-15th, this one could be a doozy and I'm calling a potential Blizzard from OK/TX up through the S MW/Lower Lakes/OHV.  The storm train continues and about 3-5 days later, I'm anticipating another system to drive into the 4 corners/TX Pan Handle and cut up towards the Lower Lakes/OHV.  The pattern is going to be ripe for a SW Flow to dominate that majority of this month.  

Last night's Euro Weeklies are flashing a wintry look over the next 30 days...a lot of these values are coming from the models data on the upcoming major storm but one could gauge the suppression of the snow shield farther south as we enter deeper into Jan.

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Back to your regularly scheduled unseasonable warmth by next week.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Once we get into the New Year, there is quite an active storm train setting up across the central CONUS along with a massive Greenland Block.  My goodness, but it was been year's since we have seen such an expansive ridge in this region.  This is the epitome of a west-based Greenland Block that favors our Sub for an action packed wave train.  Week 1 of the New year will have a couple systems to monitor but the one that has my attn is showing up on the models during the 8th-10th time frame.  I have this period highlighted on my calendar that it may in fact turn into a classic winter storm for our Sub.  The blocking will be in place, arctic air will be lurking and a slowly transitioning amplified pattern could deliver quite the punch.  Once this storm passes, the western NAMER ridge should fire up and deliver true arctic air into the pattern.  I'm convinced we will see a solid 3 week period this month (Jan 8th-31st) whereby most of this Sub (central/southern/eastern) will be in the heart of a hyper active wave train...#Snowmageddon2021...memories will be made...

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53 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@TomHave a feeling this guy on the 9th will bring some excitement to the board.  The LRC would indicate this could be a strong one.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

Tbh bud, not too impressed w January's temps as a whole. My area looks to be AN. Have to wait and see if it changes down the road.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@TomHave a feeling this guy on the 9th will bring some excitement to the board.  The LRC would indicate this could be a strong one.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

Oh look! Another Iowa snowstorm. Wash, rinse, repeat pattern ftl.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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25 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

The AO is forecast to be about as low as I have seen it since I really started paying attention to it several years ago.  And yet, so far, no corresponding truly cold air intrusions are expected.  Every time I think there's a reliable forecast tool, it ends up being unreliable. 

So many different factors.  All translate to  nothing on their own.  We may get winter yet, but I have 1 out of the next 10 days forecasted to be below freezing, let alone below average.  Forecast Temps are increasing as we head into January to near 40 next week.  ZERO and I mean ZERO sign of arctic or even cold air intruding into the continental United States any time soon.   The only good sign for me if we do get some arctic intrusions, the lakes will be WIDE open and ready to roll.  

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Upcoming pattern looks mild but active.... cutter central. Which I guess is fine.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

This is what the first 3 months of 2021 look like across the nation.......hope this does not verify!!!!!

https://s.w-x.co/WSI_Jan-Mar_prim_1215.jpg

If we don't get any more snow after this one, might as well be warm. Lol.

I seriously have zero faith in that map, but if the SSW gets cut off and the cold dumps down the backside of the globe, we will see that.

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See no sustained below normal temps for sub for first half of Jan . That includes those with snow cover. SSW to open Jan? Maybe. But we are on wrong side if it happens. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The spike in the EPO has really put a wrench into the pattern to open up January.  I was not expecting to see such a rise in the EPO that creates a deeper trough along the western NAMER coast.  Thankfully, it doesn't appear to stick around like it did back in November for a long period of time.  The period between Jan 6th-10th we should begin to see the N.A. pattern amplify once a couple warm cutters target the Sub.  I am encouraged to see last nights Euro Weeklies holding onto this idea, as well as, the CFSv2 weeklies.

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The wave train is expected to continue throughout this month and arctic air will eventually build up first across western N.A. and then bleed into the central CONUS post 10th.  I still see a large wound up storm (13th-16th) on the heels of the return of Winter after a warm spell to open up January.  Both GEFS/EPS ensemble members are in remarkable agreement of multiple storm threats (6-9th) and at the tail end of the current extended period (13th-16th) when I anticipate real winter to lock in.  It's a bit delayed in my book but I do not think it will be denied.  There are too many (+) variables all coming together.

Boy, now this is an impressive SSW event that is about to occur and the latest Euro op placing the 10mb ridge smack dab over the Arctic/North Pole by Jan 5th...btw, notice that finger of blues off the PAC into Cali...I use this as guidance that the storm track will be targeting this region which bodes well for our Sub Forum.

 

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Doesn't it look familiar to this animation below???  Get ready to activate the SW Flow...all systems are a "go"...

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Every run off the CFSv2 is extremely active/wet for the entirety of this month...my goodness, if we get that cold air to merry up with this precip pattern, it's gonna get pretty interesting to say the least...

3.png

 

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4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Hello summer says the Euro🥵🥵

4351A130-A545-48E7-A1C7-AB4E434876CF.jpeg

If I get the heavy snow that’s expected here I doubt temps will be that much warmer than a average. Unless most of it somehow is melted by then, which is possible beings I’ll be not that far from the southern edge of the snow cover.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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6 minutes ago, Niko said:

UGH! This is not impressive! Projection for the month of January. New England bakes.

https://s.w-x.co/primary-jan-wsi.jpg

I think that anomalous warmth in the NE part of the U.S. is a culprit to a very strong -NAO...you sorta see how the middle of the nation has a ribbon of slightly AN temps??  That's a tell tale sign to me that it'll prob end up being colder.  I think its the warm bias of the modeling in our era.

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On 12/25/2020 at 4:47 AM, Tom said:

I want to share with you some storm dates on my calendar for this month.  First off, I'm looking for a smaller system to ride up a boundary from TX up into the OHV between Jan 2nd-4th.  Then we will likely be tracking a larger system between Jan 6th-9th that could be more of a southern/eastern Sub storm threat.  By the middle of the month, between Jan 13th-15th, this one could be a doozy and I'm calling a potential Blizzard from OK/TX up through the S MW/Lower Lakes/OHV.  The storm train continues and about 3-5 days later, I'm anticipating another system to drive into the 4 corners/TX Pan Handle and cut up towards the Lower Lakes/OHV.  The pattern is going to be ripe for a SW Flow to dominate that majority of this month.  

Last night's Euro Weeklies are flashing a wintry look over the next 30 days...a lot of these values are coming from the models data on the upcoming major storm but one could gauge the suppression of the snow shield farther south as we enter deeper into Jan.

3.png

There she is...only 11 more days to go..LOL...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

11 days what could go wrong lol.

Do you remember a model named DGEX? I always thought that model was awesome. No idea why, but I liked it the most. Too bad it is not around (or is it?)😄

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I think that anomalous warmth in the NE part of the U.S. is a culprit to a very strong -NAO...you sorta see how the middle of the nation has a ribbon of slightly AN temps??  That's a tell tale sign to me that it'll prob end up being colder.  I think its the warm bias of the modeling in our era.

We will see how this all pans out.....

Point is, I do not see any true arctic air in sight and if it does get colder, it just gets a little BN and then, goes back to normal or above. I would not be surprised, if my temps don't achieve highs in the teens this Winter. Hope I am wrong! February is not looking any better, in terms of bitter cold. Hopefully, we get good tracks for snowstorms, for that matter. Tbh, I don't mind, if we do not get very cold air, as long as snowfall remains above average. So far w that, SEMI is looking golden. AN snowfall continues here. Good luck w your area.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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7 minutes ago, Niko said:

We will see how this all pans out.....

Point is, I do not see any true arctic air in sight and if it does get colder, it just gets a little BN and then, goes back to normal or above. I would not be surprised, if my temps don't achieve highs in the teens this Winter. Hope I am wrong! February is not looking any better, in terms of bitter cold. Hopefully, we get good tracks for snowstorms, for that matter. Tbh, I don't mind, if we do not get very cold air, as long as snowfall remains above average. So far w that, SEMI is looking golden. AN snowfall continues here. Good luck w your area.

GRR mentions arctic air go bye bye

Stronger warm air advection will occur across the Canadian
Prairies over the weekend. This will act to shove the arctic air
unusually far north for this time of the year. As a
result...without any stronger cold fronts pushing down into
MI...the region will see a period of above normal temperatures
over the weekend and into next week.
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2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GRR mentions arctic air go bye bye






Stronger warm air advection will occur across the Canadian
Prairies over the weekend. This will act to shove the arctic air
unusually far north for this time of the year. As a
result...without any stronger cold fronts pushing down into
MI...the region will see a period of above normal temperatures
over the weekend and into next week.

Hopefully, we can get a good storm track to go along w the average temps, or even slightly above (keep in mind, my average low is now approaching the upper teens and average highs somewhere in the low 30s and they are continuing to drop), so that helps a lot. Watch we get a full blown "Arctic Airmass" in April when it is not wanted by anyone, I would assume. Hopefully, things do change and we get to see an intrusion of some very cold air sometime in January like Tom mentions above in his statement. Gotta luv weather! It can drive ya nuts w all the details that need to get sorted out.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Yeah, we're hardcore lacking the sustained cold necessary to actually maintain a good winter. While some people in here do have above normal snowfall, it's futile if it's gone in 2 days anyway. There's no solid evidence that this will change any time soon.

Nebraska people, 2015-16 is a recent example of a winter with a non-terrible snowfall total but a terrible number of days with >1" on the ground.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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On the eve, of New Year's Eve, I'm noticing some rather fascinating developments in the data that suggest to me we are going to see some "bowling ball" systems as the models are beginning to digest the massive blocking pattern over the arctic regions.  I don't recall seeing maps like these in years where you have both an "off the charts" -AO/-NAO in tandem.  My goodness, but the models are actually trending stronger with the blocking as we head into the New Year, thus, it is now beginning to look like the storm track will be farther south instead of hard NW cutters.  I'm watching for the models to trend just enough colder in future runs that'll allow these systems to produce more SN instead of mix/RN scenarios across the central/eastern Sub during the 1st couple weeks of the month.

Gosh, where do I begin...there's just soo much going on in the atmosphere right now that in my opinion, it is gearing up for an interesting ride this month.  Let's start off in the all important piece to the puzzle, The Polar Vortex, and what is going to transpire over the next week or so.  I knew when flipping through the data this morning, I saw this similar SSW event before.  Yup, it is nearly identical to the one that transpired recently in Dec '18 which lead to the PV intrusion in late Jan '19 that ignited Snowmaggedon for those of you out in the Plains/Upper MW region.  Are we going to see a similar pattern but this time farther South???  Yes, I'm startled by the evidence and data that is suggesting what we have just witnessed is a taste of what is coming down the road.  

 

The data shows, when a Siberian SSW event starts off on the other side of the Pole and heads into the N.A side, it leads to severe winter 2-3 weeks later.  This means, that by the middle of this month, following the multiple systems I'm seeing between the 6th-15th, IMHO, the entire N.A. pattern will veer away from the stout +EPO leading us into seeing more arctic air to infiltrate the pattern.  The forthcoming pattern heading into the latter part of the 1st week of Jan, I think we will see nature lay down the foundation, or framework, where the Arctic Express will come down into the nation by the 15th or thereabouts.  Get ready to see some big flips in the LR data. I'm seriously becoming more convinced knowing how badly the models missed the blocking for December, they are absolutely missing the blocking into Jan.  More importantly, they are now latching onto the sustained cold that will come towards the end of Week 2.  

Let's order up some blocking....

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Long Range GEFS...

4.png

 

 

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